It’s time to go out and hunt for a championship. To do so, you might need to take a few risks with the bottom of your roster and find a player or two your competitors either gave up on or aren’t paying attention to that can elevate your lineup in a hurry.
Here are 10 players, five hitters and five pitchers, all under 65% rostership that can act as lightning in a bottle and fuel your team in crunch time.
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Hitters
Gleyber Torres - 63% Rostered on Yahoo
It’s been a horrific season for Torres. There’s no way to argue that. He’s not even halfway to his home run or stolen base totals from 2023 over 500 plate appearances this season. His barrel rate and hard hit rate are each career lows for a full season. It’s bad.
Even still, Aaron Boone had enough confidence in Torres to reinstall him as the Yankees’ lead-off hitter nine games ago. Torres has reached base in all of those games, hit in eight of them, scored eight runs, and has more walks than strikeouts.
To simplify further, Torres has too long of a track record being good to be this bad and is now hitting directly in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Almost anyone in the Yankees’ lead-off spot would be included on this list. That plus Torres’ pedigree gives him potential to be a stud for the next few weeks.
Don’t forget about Jasson Domínguez (22% rostered) here either.
Nolan Jones - 46% Rostered
Hello darkness, my old friend. Jones is partly the inspiration for this piece because of his torrid 20 homer, 20 steal barrage over the final four months of last season. That made him a consensus top-60 pick in drafts this season and he has not come remotely close to living up to that value.
Yet, here we are again. Jones is off the IL, back in the Rockies’ lineup every day, and is about to play seven straight games in Coors Field. Then, Colorado goes on a nine-game road trip before closing the season with 12 of 15 games at home.
Again, don’t overthink it. Get Jones on your roster if he’s available, cross your fingers, and maybe something special will happen.
Jhonkensy Noel - 43% Rostered
‘Big Christmas’ is scorching hot right now. He’s hit three homers over his last four games and has 12 on the season in 41 contests. That would put him on just about a 45 homer pace over 162 games. Pretty good!
Now some bad stuff, Noel has the worst chase rate for any player in the league with at least 100 plate appearances at 47.2%. With that, he’s seen the second-lowest percentage of pitches in the strike zone this season. The only player who’s seen fewer is Javy Báez.
Regardless, Noel is still hammering the baseball every chance he gets. From the same 100 PA parameters, he has the fifth highest barrel rate, 10th highest rate of pulled fly balls, and an above average in-zone contact rate.
This might not be a sustainable approach over a career or even full season, but Noel is locked in right now and will remain a fixture in Cleveland’s power-starved lineup as long as he doesn’t completely fall apart.
Jo Adell - 12% Rostered
Hello darkness, my old friend: part two. Adell is the epitome of a ‘lightning in a bottle’ type of player because he has big power, speed, pedigree without steady production, and is locked into a daily lineup spot.
Also, he’s made some genuine improvements in the areas where he’s struggled most. His strikeout rate has fallen dramatically while he’s chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone and doing serious damage when he makes contact. Sure, he’s still swinging and missing a lot, but he also has a 95th percentile SEAGER which tells us his swing decisions are elite.
Just in August his batting average has crept up to .286 with just a 25.6 K%. That includes an 0-for-6 with three punchouts against Francis and Kevin Gausman on Saturday and Sunday.
On the season, Adell has turned in 18 homers and 14 stolen bases. That is decent! His .211 batting average is not, but batting average blows in the wind. Chase counting stats this time of year and hope the average follows.
Luke Raley - 10% Rostered
Raley is in the midst of one of his patented heaters with five homers and a 203 wRC+ in 61 PAs this month. Part of his inclusion here is an undeniable ability to have serious hot streaks before and after brutal cold spells. Check out the peaks and valleys from his rolling wOBA this season:
With this hot streak, Raley is making more contact in the strike zone, something he often struggles with, and recently hit both the hardest and longest ball of his entire career. Check out this 459 foot, 115.4 MPH, third-deck SHOT from earlier this month.
115.4 MPH, 459 feetLuke Raley demolished this pitch! 😳 pic.twitter.com/p1YkZAFpXb
— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2024
Partly due to Victor Robles’ injury, a new manager drawing up the lineup card, and this hot streak, Raley just hit lead-off in back-to-back games while playing first base, center field, and right field. The Mariners are desperate for offense and Raley will be in there every game against a right-handed pitcher. Ride this hot streak.
Pitchers
Bowden Francis - 57% Rostered
Francis has been a revelation since returning to the Jays’ rotation after a miserable start to the season. Eric Samulski highlighted him in his weekly Mixing it Up piece as Francis has nearly cut out his curveball in favor of more splitters.
That curveball has been hammered for a .614 SLG on the season with a -8 Run Value despite grading well in terms of stuff. After throwing it 34.1% of the time in April, its usage rate is down to 5.5% in August against 27.4% splitters.
In those four starts he’s 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA, 0.44 WHIP, 36.2 K%, and 4.3 BB%. That is outrageously good.
As a word of caution, Francis’ four hot starts have come against the Orioles, Cubs, and Angels twice. He lines up to face the Red Sox in Fenway, Phillies at home, and then Mets at home in his next three outings. If he stays this hot against those lineups, watch out.
Bobby Miller - 45% Rostered
Why not, right? Miller just had a six inning, three run, nine strikeout performance last Friday that also included 18 swings-and-misses. That total is just two off his career best 20 that he weirdly set almost one year ago to the day.
On Friday, he deployed a much more even mix of his fastball, curveball, changeup, and sinker while throwing just five total sliders. Rather, Miller opted for more curveballs against right-handed batters which played well off his sinker, a pitch he barely threw earlier this season.
Nevertheless, this is lightning in a bottle. Miller was considered one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball before injuries, ineffectiveness, and poor command took his season off the rails. The command was still poor and the Rays smacked two homers and 10 hard-hit balls, but Miller has all the tools to rip off a solid run to end the season.
Ryne Nelson - 37% Rostered
One of the most improved pitchers in the league over the last few months, Nelson has officially usurped Jordan Montgomery in the Diamondbacks’ rotation. He responded to that vote of confidence with a six inning, two run, seven strikeout performance on Friday in Fenway Park.
Nelson made an adjustment before his July 7th start to both throw more four seam fastballs and locate them higher up in the strike zone.
Since then, he’s 4-0 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 27.1 K%, 5.0 BB%, and has completed at least six innings in seven of nine starts. Those are ace-like numbers from a pitcher who’s come into his own.
Cody Bradford - 36% Rostered
As a fly-ball dominant, left-handed, changeup artisan, who throws a 90 MPH fastball, Bradford’s breakout season may not be as real as his 3.31 ERA would indicate.
There has been real improvement here though spurned by a new curveball he can show to right-handed batters, incredible command, and a good bit of batted ball luck. He’s nearly cut his HR/FB rate in half, which may not be sustainable.
This is crunch time though. Sometimes we have to look at pitchers’ upcoming schedules and hunt easy matchups rather than identifying skill changes.
Bradford is set to face the Athletics at home, Angels at home, then a scary date with the Diamondbacks in Arizona before the Mariners and possibly Athletics and Angels again along with the Blue Jays.
The Rangers have some off-days and pitchers returning off the injured list so this schedule is subject to change, but Bradford is likely to face just one above average offense the rest of the season.
Keider Montero - 13% Rostered
There isn’t much in Montero’s profile that would make one think he can go on a heater. He has just one pitch – his slider – that’s above average in terms of Stuff+. His 5.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.42 SIERA, and 11.8 K-BB% tell us he’s barely an MLB caliber starter.
Yet, similar to Bradford, a players’ upcoming schedule can hold more weight than their skill level this time of year.
In Montero’s case, it holds significantly more weight because right now he’s scheduled to face the Angels at home, Padres in San Diego, the A’s in Oakland, and then some combination of the Rockies at home, Orioles, Rays, Royals in Kansas City, and possibly the White Sox to close the season. Almost every matchup is either against a poor offense, in a good pitcher’s park, or both.
Detroit’s rotation is in shambles so it’s hard to forecast exactly who Montero will be up against but this assortment of opponents makes all of their pitchers attractive right now.