Kansas City Royals
2024 record: 86-76
Second place, AL Central
Team ERA: 3.76 (8th in MLB)
Team OPS: .710 (14th in MLB)
What Went Right
At this point last year, the Royals were coming off a 56-106 season. What a difference an offseason makes. Kansas City not only improved its record by 30 games, but they were able to make the postseason and swept the Orioles to advance to the ALDS against the Yankees. There are plenty of reasons for why this happened, but none of them top the spectacular campaign of Bobby Witt Jr. He led the league in average (.332), homered 32 times, stole 31 bases and might have been the best defensive player in baseball; certainly the best shortstop in the American League. Oh, by the way? He’s 24.
On top of the MVP-caliber season from Witt Jr. (no, he’s not going to win, Aaron Judge has that locked up), the Royals had one of the best pitching staffs in the AL. Cole Ragans showed that 2023 was no fluke while striking out 223 hitters in 186 2/3 innings with a strong 3.14 ERA. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha were both brought in as free agents and became stalwarts in the Royals’ rotation; Lugo forging an even 3.00 ERA and staying in the Cy Young hunt for much of the season, and Wacha a 3.35 mark with 14 quality starts and a 145/45 K/BB. Add in a solid -- if inconsistent -- season from Brady Singer and the Royals had one of the best and deepest rotations of anyone in baseball. Imagine me telling you that would happen in 2023.
What Went Wrong
Saying anything went wrong for a team that won 30 more games than the previous year seems a bit callous, but obviously an 86-76 team had flaws; flaws that saw them lose to the Yankees in four games in the ALDS. The offense was extremely top-heavy with Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino finishing with OPS above .750; and no other regular who played more than 105 games finished with an OPS above .700. The starting pitching was fantastic. The bullpen left a bit to be desired even after some additions near the deadline. Kansas City finished 20th with a 4.13 ERA from its relievers, and until the acquisition of Lucas Erceg -- more on him in a second -- the Royals struggled to find a consistent stopper at the back of the bullpen.
Fantasy Slants
- You cannot help but wonder how much better Witt Jr. can get based on his age and how successful he’s been in his first three seasons. His only real issue right now is that he swings at too many pitches outside of the zone -- his chase rate of 32.1 percent puts him in the bottom 25th percentile -- but he’s a good bad-ball hitter, and you probably don’t want to change too much here. This is a third-year player that ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in expected batting average, expected slugging, expected weighted on-base average and barrel percentage while also posting an elite hard-hit percentage (48.3) and strikeout rate (15 percent). He should be one of the first few players off the board in 2025, and if you wanted to take him first, I wouldn’t spend much time talking you out of it.
- Perez continues to age gracefully and finished the year as the second best fantasy backstop in standard scoring leagues; ranking only behind William Contreras. No one swings at more pitches outside of the strike zone than he does with a whopping 42.9 percent chase rate, but very few find the sweet spot and barrel better either, and his .530 expected slugging percentage placed him in the 95th percentile of all qualified hitters. No one is rooting for it, but at some point it seems likely that Perez’s skill set will crater. Nothing he showed in 2024 suggests that’s going to happen next year.
- The Royals picked up Erceg in a deadline deal from the Royals, and he helped the Kansas City bullpen considerably with 11 saves along with a 31/3 K/BB and 2.88 ERA over 25 innings. He also saved three games in the postseason, and it seems likely he’ll begin 2025 as the closer for Kansas City. A 29-year-old who was drafted in the second round by the Brewers as a third baseman, Erceg has no real weakness to his skill set while averaging 98.6 mph with his heater and getting hitters to whiff at his arsenal 31 percent of the time. Maybe he’s not an elite closer, but assuming he does keep the job, there’s obviously a lot to like.
- Since entering the league, MJ Melendez has tantalized with his potential for power, and while there have been flashes of brilliance, those flashes have often burnt out. Quickly. The 2024 season saw him hit just .206 with a .673 OPS, and while he did make hard contact as seen in an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph, that doesn’t mean as much when you strike out in over a quarter of your at-bats and whiff 29.5 percent of the time. That being said, Melendez is still just 25, and the talent is still readily apparent. It’s just a question of if he can apply that talent on a more consistent basis.
Key Free Agents
Wacha ($16 million player option), Michael Lorenzen, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Robbie Grossman, Yuli Guriel, Adam Frazier (mutual option), Hunter Renfroe (player option), Garrett Hampson, Will Smith, Chris Stratton (player option).
Team Needs
Not shortstop.
The Royals have a good amount of free agents, but outside of Wacha -- who will assuredly decline his option after his strong 2024 campaign, one would have to think -- these are mostly bench/platoon options that can be replaced. Kansas City is also in a somewhat-enviable position where they can improve in several areas, and one would have to think they’ll explore the outfield market while also adding a bridge or two to help Erceg. They’re not a championship contending team just yet, but a few more adds to the offensive core and improvement from young players like Melendez and Pasquantino make them closer than anyone could have anticipated in 2023.
