We have a new No. 1 in our rankings, the Astros and the Mets are red-hot, and teams like the Cubs and the Blue Jays will need to start asking themselves some tough questions leading into the trade deadline. Let’s get to this month’s MLB Team Power Rankings.
Editor’s Note: Odds and statistics used are from the morning of Tuesday, July 2.
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1) Philadelphia Phillies
Last month: No. 2
Odds to win NL East: -370
To make the playoffs: -20000
The Phillies have climbed to the top of our rankings for the first time this season, but they have some legitimate challenges in front of them. Bryce Harper (hamstring) and Kyle Schwarber (groin) both landed on the injured list last week, joining J.T. Realmuto as he recovers from knee surgery. That’s a significant chunk of the Phillies’ lineup as the club goes into a three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta this weekend. On the bright side, Trea Turner is back and Alec Bohm continues to drive in runs by the bucketful. The pitching is also holding up their end of the bargain, with the recently-extended Cristopher Sanchez delivering back-to-back scoreless starts.
2) Cleveland Guardians
Last month: No. 3
Odds to win AL Central: - 210
To make the playoffs: -1800
You could make a case for the Guardians at No. 1 and I’d certainly listen. Under first-year skipper Stephen Vogt, the Guardians have allowed the fewest runs in the American League and own the best home record in all of baseball. And while the offense hasn’t exactly put fear in the hearts of pitchers in recent years, they have made real strides there as well this season. Steven Kwan has been right in the middle of that evolution, even with a recent slump at the plate which has brought his batting average to **just** .368. In addition to the elite contact rate, Kwan has already established a new career-high with seven home runs.
3) Baltimore Orioles
Last month: No. 4
Odds to win AL East: +160
To make the playoffs: -5000
The Orioles have righted the ship somewhat after losing five straight between the Astros and Guardians, but questions about their starting pitching depth remain. Corbin Burnes is one of the top contenders for the AL Cy Young Award and Grayson Rodriguez proved the role of stopper to snap the Orioles’ recent losing streak, but this rotation has been decimated by injuries. Kyle Bradish was the latest to require surgery for the UCL in his elbow, joining John Means and Tyler Wells. The Yankees’ rotation is also looking vulnerable at the moment, but look for Baltimore to seek reinforcements at the upcoming trade deadline.
4) New York Yankees
Last month: No. 1
Odds to win AL East: -190
To make the playoffs: -20000
The Yankees were riding high a month ago, but June wasn’t kind to them. This was especially the case for the pitching staff, who after giving up just 73 runs in May, were tagged for 141 runs last month. First-half sensation Luis Gil has hit a rough patch recently and Gerrit Cole was hammered by the Mets before bouncing back on Sunday. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto keep doing their thing offensively, but the rest of this lineup needs to step up as well.
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
Last month: No. 5
Odds to win NL West: -3500
To make the playoffs: -20000
Shohei Ohtani keeps finding ways to level up. He put up 11 home runs and a 1.149 OPS in June while setting a new franchise record by driving in a run in 11 consecutive games. The Dodgers would certainly like to have Mookie Betts in their lineup, but Ohtani seems to be taking a liking to the leadoff spot. If it wasn’t for a cool and collected batboy, the Dodgers might also have Ohtani on their injured list right now. Best catch of the season?
Batboy made a $700 million catch pic.twitter.com/PMSY54DN6t
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) June 27, 2024
6) Milwaukee Brewers
Last month: No. 6
Odds to win NL Central: -340
To make the playoffs: -1000
The Brewers refuse to take their foot off the gas. One of the big keys of their strong June was rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio. After hitting just .210 with a .581 OPS through the end of May, the 20-year-old slashed .318/.361/.546 with four homers and 16 RBI last month. He’s hit a grand slam and an inside-the-park home run in the past week, showcasing why he was considered one of the top prospects in the sport coming into the year. The grand slams are a bit contagious of late, as the Brewers have connected for five of them in their last nine games.
7) Minnesota Twins
Last month: No. 10
Odds to win AL Central: +280
To make the playoffs: -290
The Twins have a winning record in every month so far this season, with their offense just beginning to fire on all cylinders. Royce Lewis is healthy again, Carlos Correa is looking like Carlos Correa again, and Byron Buxton has found his groove again. Trevor Larnach provided the power in Monday’s victory over the Mariners, giving the Twins a new franchise record with 19 straight games with a home run. By the way, the key to Buxton’s recent resurgence? Coffee. I’ve never related more to a professional baseball player.
Byron Buxton finding comfort at the plate has freed up about 45 minutes a day on his schedule. How’s he spending it? Drinking coffee.#MNTwins #MLB https://t.co/2U2sqmtA7I Byron Buxton’s hot streak continues, fueled by coffee and a good feel at the plate
— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) June 28, 2024
8) Atlanta Braves
Last month: No. 8
Odds to win NL East: +290
To make the playoffs: -2000
The Braves are now 26-27 dating back to the start of May. This hasn’t been the season anyone envisioned coming into the year, but one bright spot recently is the play of Jarred Kelenic. Acquired from the Mariners in what was essentially a salary dump trade this offseason, Kelenic took over the leadoff spot on June 15 and has put together a .333/.373/.593 batting line with four homers and 10 RBI over his last 14 games. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Kelenic is taking a step toward realizing the immense hype adorned upon him as a top prospect, but he’s certainly stepping up for the Braves in a time of need.
9) Kansas City Royals
Last month: No. 7
Odds to win AL Central: +700
To make the playoffs: -115
In a huge statement, the Royals just took three out of four from the first-place Guardians over the weekend. Seth Lugo shut Cleveland down in convincing fashion on Sunday, tossing six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. The free agent pickup is the first pitcher in all of baseball to reach 11 victories and he now ranks first in the majors in ERA (2.16), innings pitched (116), and quality starts (14). He has a strong case to start the All-Star Game for the American League in two weeks.
10) Seattle Mariners
Last month: No. 9
Odds to win AL West: -150
To make the playoffs: -270
The Mariners are hearing footsteps. The Astros were the best team in the majors in June and the Mariners have lost nine out of their last 12 games while dropping four straight series. They enter play on Tuesday with a skinny three-game game lead in the AL West. The pitching staff has carried this team through the first half, but the offense ranks dead-last in the majors in batting average and 26th in OPS. Jon Morosi reported over the weekend that the Mariners have already begun talking trades in hopes of landing an “everyday bat.” Can they get some help before it’s too late?
11) Boston Red Sox
Last month: No. 12
Odds to win AL East: +9000
To make the playoffs: +210
Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson continued their excellence in the month of June, but Jarren Duran ranked just behind them in terms of fWAR. He hit .364 with six homers, 16 RBI, 25 runs scored, and nine stolen bases, boosting his OPS to .841 for the year. He truly looks like a different hitter this season, making much more in the way of hard contact. The speedy outfielder is in the 80th percentile for barrel percentage after registering in the ninth percentile last season. That really says it all.
12) San Diego Padres
Last month: No. 11
Odds to win NL West: +2500
To make the playoffs: -120
The Padres have emerged as one of the prime contenders for a Wild Card spot in the National League with another winning month. Rookie Jackson Merrill has done much of the heavy lifting of late, batting .317 with nine home runs and 19 RBI over his last 23 games. Thanks to the power surge, the 21-year-old now leads all NL rookies in home runs. It’s all the more impressive considering that Merrill only had a 46-game sample in Double-A last year and had never played a professional game in center field prior to this season. He’s a keeper.
13) St. Louis Cardinals
Last month: No. 15
Odds to win NL Central: +475
To make the playoffs: +120
Ryan Helsley became the first in MLB to reach 30 saves this season in Sunday’s victory over the Reds. In doing so, he tied Lee Smith’s club record for saves before the All-Star break. Helsley is truly lapping the field in the category, as Emmanuel Clase is second with 25 saves and Kyle Finnegan is third with 22 saves. The Cardinals have been outscored in every month so far this season, but their pitching has gone a long way toward keeping them afloat. Only the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies had a lower team ERA in June.
14) Houston Astros
Last month: No. 20
Odds to win AL West: +140
To make the playoffs: -130
Even with their slow start, the Astros felt like they had a hot streak lurking in there somewhere. And sure enough, it has happened. After a recent seven-game winning streak and taking two out of three from the Mets over the weekend, the Astros secured the best record in MLB during June. All this despite missing Kyle Tucker and multiple big names in their starting rotation. Only the Twins and the Mets have a higher team batting average over the past month, as familiar faces like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez are leading the charge for the offense. Despite missing multiple key pieces of the rotation, the Astros posted the lowest team ERA in baseball during the month of June. The Mariners better look out.
15) New York Mets
Last month: No. 26
Odds to win NL East: +8000
To make the playoffs: +150
OMG. This time last month, it looked like all hope was lost. Whether you want to give credit to Grimace, Francisco Lindor moving to the leadoff spot, Jose Iglesias’ immaculate vibes, or some perfect combination of factors, the Mets have completely turned things around. Only the Astros put up a better record in the month of June. The offense has suddenly become a buzzsaw, with youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos doing a lot of the damage. Christian Scott is making his return to the majors on Wednesday and Kodai Senga is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment, so things are looking up in Queens. The bullpen is the major liability at the moment, so the end of Edwin Díaz’s suspension can’t come soon enough.
16) Tampa Bay Rays
Last month: No. 18
Odds to win AL East: +35000
To make the playoffs: +500
The Rays have won seven out of 10 to climb back to the .500 mark. It’s getting over the .500 mark which has been the issue, though. Despite flirting with the possibility numerous times, the Rays haven’t been there since May 20. Will this time be different? One big key of late: Taj Bradley. The 23-year-old struck out 11 batters over 5 2/3 scoreless frames against the Nationals on Sunday and has now allowed just six runs (four earned) in 29 innings over his last five starts.
17) Arizona Diamondbacks
Last month: No. 23
Odds to win NL West: +6000
To make the playoffs: +220
Ketel Marte might be the most underrated player in baseball right now. Shohei Ohtani is currently leading all hitters in bWAR (4.8), but Marte (4.4) is right behind him. The 30-year-old is coming off a monster June where he hit .341 with seven homers, 20 RBI, and a 1.069 OPS across 25 games and currently finds himself trying to fend off Luis Arráez for starting second base duties in the All-Star Game. The Diamondbacks went 16-11 in June despite missing their ace Zac Gallen for nearly all of it. Gallen allowed just one hit and one walk with seven strikeouts over six scoreless innings in his return Saturday against the Athletics.
18) San Francisco Giants
Last month: No. 16
Odds to win NL West: +9000
To make the playoffs: +275
Heliot Ramos struggled in his previous chances in the majors in 2022 and 2023, but he’s taking advantage of his latest opportunity, with a potential trip to the All-Star Game in the offing. Originally called up in May with Jorge Soler landing on the injured list, the former top prospect is batting .294/.368/.508 with 10 homers through 48 games. There’s still some swing and miss in his game, but he’s aggressive early in at-bats and doing some serious damage in the process. Ramos finds himself in the 97th percentile in barrel percentage as well as 94th percentile in bat speed, so even if the batting average finds some natural regression, his power looks like the real deal.
19) Pittsburgh Pirates
Last month: No. 21
Odds to win NL Central: +3000
To make the playoffs: +600
Paul Skenes and Jared Jones have quickly formed a dynamic duo atop the Pirates’ rotation, but Bryan Reynolds was recently the center of attention for his 24-game hitting streak. The 29-year-old has spent his entire career with the Pirates and has had to fight through some tough times, but he put ink to paper on an eight-year extension last April in the hopes that things were headed in the right direction. He’s certainly doing his part with a .279/.341/.466 batting line to go along with 13 home runs through 81 games.
20) Washington Nationals
Last month: No. 22
Odds to win NL East: +50000
To make the playoffs: +2000
He’s here. On Monday, top prospect outfielder James Wood made his major league debut against the Mets and roped a single in his first at-bat. As you’ll see below, it didn’t take the 21-year-old long to show off what makes him such a fun and dynamic prospect. Wood might have been here couple of weeks ago if it wasn’t for a hamstring injury, but he’s done nothing but mash in Triple-A this season, slashing .353/.463/.595 with 10 home runs and 10 steals over 52 games. Acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto trade, Wood is known for hitting the ball extremely hard, but he’s starting to put it all together in terms of his approach. Get excited, Nationals fans.
James Wood turns on the jets 💨
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 2, 2024
MLB's No. 2 overall prospect utilizes a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed as he reaches on an error and moves to 2nd for the @Nationals. pic.twitter.com/nY3OUapgWY
21) Cincinnati Reds
Last month: No. 24
Odds to win NL Central: +2200
To make the playoffs: +550
Bob Odenkirk might say that “triples is best,” but Jonathan India disagrees with that notion. India has doubled in eight straight games to set a franchise record. He’s hit safely in each of his last 12 games while batting .489 (22-for-45) with a 1.371 OPS. He was hitting .235 for the season on June 17, but thanks to this ridiculous stretch he’s now batting .278. By the way, the Reds have gone 5-7 during his hitting streak, so they continue to spin their wheels.
22) Chicago Cubs
Last month: No. 17
Odds to win NL Central: +2000
To make the playoffs: +500
The Cubs own a 12-24 record since May 21 and haven’t sniffed the .500 mark since June 5. With a suspect bullpen and an underperforming lineup, it’s increasingly likely that the North Siders will be sellers going into the upcoming trade deadline. The question is what they actually have to sell and if they’d be creative beyond secondary pieces. Given the structure of his contact, Cody Bellinger might be the most interesting name to track in the coming weeks.
23) Toronto Blue Jays
Last month: No. 19
Odds to win AL East: +50000
To make the playoffs: +1400
After knocking in just seven runs over his previous 27 games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. became a one-man wrecking crew to close out the month of June, batting ,484 (15-for-31) with five home runs and 19 RBI over seven games while winning the AL Player of the Week Award. Unfortunately, he was hit in the hand by a pitch from Gerrit Cole on Sunday and had to sit out Monday’s game because he wasn’t comfortable squeezing the bat. This is already looking like a lost season for the Blue Jays, and missing Vlad Jr. for any length of time only makes the job harder.
24) Detroit Tigers
Last month: No. 14
Odds to win AL Central: +16000
To make the playoffs: +1300
The Tigers are one of our big fallers over the past month as their offense has gone missing. They entered July eight games out of a Wild Card spot in the American League, putting them very much in the category of a seller going into the trade deadline. Jack Flaherty has been a sensation in his one-year, $14 million deal with the Tigers, posting a 3.24 ERA and 115/14 K/BB ratio in 89 innings across 15 starts, so he’s looking like one of the most sought-after rotation arms this month.
25) Texas Rangers
Last month: No. 13
Odds to win AL West: +1500
To make the playoffs: +800
The defending World Series champions have plummeted the most in our rankings compared to a month ago. The offense has struggled to live up to their potential, as Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, and Nathaniel Lowe all entered July with an OPS south of .700. Wyatt Langford helped the club snap their six-game losing streak by hitting for the cycle Sunday against the Orioles. He’s now slashing .299/.353/.495 in 29 games since coming off the injured list in late May.
26) Los Angeles Angels
Last month: No. 29
Odds to win AL West: +10000
To make the playoffs: +2500
Dare we say the Angels are hot? It helps to face teams like the Tigers and the Athletics, but the Angels are coming off their first winning month of the season. By the way, they did that despite being outscored by 22 runs, so it doesn’t exactly look like the strong play is built to last. Still, it’s good to see young players like Logan O’Hoppe and Zach Neto begin to thrive at the major league level. If the Angels are going to become a contender again at any point in the near future, chances are they will be key contributors.
27) Miami Marlins
Last month: No. 28
Odds to win NL East: +50000
To make the playoffs: +2500
Marlins closer Tanner Scott is sporting a 2.05 ERA in 109 relief appearances dating back to the start of last season. He’s due to become a free agent this offseason, so the Marlins probably won’t get a lot via trade, but he’ll be a popular name regardless leading into the August deadline. Of course, underneath the ERA, you also see the 23 walks he’s surrendered in 36 innings. He’s far from perfect, but he’ll almost certainly be the Marlins’ All-Star representative this month. At least assuming he’s not traded before then.
28) Oakland Athletics
Last month: No. 25
Odds to win AL West: +35000
To make the playoffs: +2500
The Athletics were a bit frisky in April but regression has hit them hard over the past two months. They went 7-20 in June, including a nine-game losing streak. It’s hard to see many positives with this situation, but a stripped-down club like this presents opportunities for players on the fringes. We saw that last week with Armando Alvarez, who finally got a chance in the majors after logging 2,721 plate appearances in the minors.
Armando Alvarez picks up his first big league knock for the @Athletics!
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 26, 2024
A 17th-round pick in the 2016 Draft, the 29-year-old had 2,721 plate appearances in the Minors before reaching The Show. pic.twitter.com/rvXLw3UE4p
29) Colorado Rockies
Last month: No. 27
Odds to win NL West: +50000
To make the playoffs: +2500
In a real Hogan and Andre showdown, the Rockies lost two out of three to the White Sox over the weekend. After a bit of a surprise with a winning month of May, the Rockies went 7-20 in June while posting a horrific 6.50 ERA. At this point, most of the focus is about who the Rockies will select No. 3 in this month’s MLB draft as well as what (if anything) they do at the trade deadline.
30) Chicago White Sox
Last month: No. 30
Odds to win AL Central: +50000
To make the playoffs: N/A
For a team who is easily the worst in the majors right now, the White Sox have multiple players who figure to generate trade interest over the next month. Breakout starter Garrett Crochet is the most impactful name in that grouping. Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently reported that the southpaw is likely to be moved after Chicago’s attempts about a contract extension didn’t lead anywhere. Crochet is under team control through 2026, so it’s possible he could still be around by the time the White Sox are ready to contend again, but his trade value might never be higher than it is right now. It’s a tough call for GM Chris Getz.