The Phillies made a splash as the Winter Meetings officially kicked off on Monday, reportedly inking right-hander Jordan Romano to a one-year contract.
Closer Jordan Romano and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a free agent contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Romano, 31, was nontendered by Toronto earlier this offseason and joins a Phillies bullpen that lost Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez to free agency.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2024
No word yet on the financial details of the contract (which is still pending a physical), but Romano had been projected by MLBTradeRumors.com to earn $7.75 million via arbitration for 2025 – which caused him to get non-tendered by the Blue Jays back in November.
My best guess is that it’ll come with a guarantee of around $8 million or so with incentives for games finished that could take it into the $12 million range.
How good is Jordan Romano?
Great question, I’m glad you asked. When healthy, he has proven to be one of the best closers in all of baseball. During a dominant three-year stretch from 2021-2023 Romano compiled 95 saves with a 2.37 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 230/70 K/BB ratio across 186 innings for the Blue Jays.
He then struggled through an injury-plagued 2024 season, posting a disappointing 6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 13/4 K/BB ratio in only 13 2/3 innings of work.
It’s safe to assume that as long as he’s fully healthy, he’ll be a force in the ninth inning for the Phillies. That of course leads us to..
What is the risk?
The risk that the Phillies are taking here is that Romano isn’t fully recovered from the elbow issues that hampered him in 2024. The 31-year-old hurler ultimately underwent arthroscopic surgery in early July to repair an impingement in his throwing elbow that cost him the remainder of the season.
Romano had been building back up in an effort to return for a postseason push, but when the Blue Jays fell out of the race in early September they made the wise decision to shut him down.
So how healthy is he? That all depends on how you want to read the tea leaves in this situation. Jays’ general manager Ross Atkins told reporters in early December that Romano is expected to be fully healthy entering the 2025 season and they were reportedly “heavily pursuing” a reunion with him.
The obvious assumption is that the Blue Jays have a better gauge on his health than anyone, as they had access to all of his medical information both before and after the surgery and saw how he progressed while recovering. I think the fact that they seemed to make an actual effort to re-sign him reinforces the belief that Romano will be healthy to start the 2025 season.
We’ll want to get a good look at his velocity numbers in spring training to make sure that his fastball remains in that 96.5 - 97.0 mph range that he featured while having success with the Jays before pulling the trigger on him in fantasy drafts.
As far as the Phillies go, we don’t know the financial commitment that they made just yet, but it’s a one-year deal so their overall risk is extremely limited here.
How does this impact Jordan Romano’s fantasy value?
That’s a terrific question. Chad Green emerged as a viable closer for the Blue Jays once Romano was shelved with the elbow issue in 2024 and it’s very possible that if he returned to the Blue Jays he may have been relegated to a setup role behind Green – or in some sort of time-share for the closer’s gig.
On the Phillies however, the 2024 season was complete chaos in the ninth inning. Seven different relievers registered saves for the Phillies on the year, led by Jose Alvarado (13), Jeff Hoffman (10), trade deadline acquisition Carlos Estevez (6) and Matt Strahm (3).
Strahm and Alvarado remain in the Phillies’ bullpen for the 2025 season, but manager Rob Thomson would prefer to deploy them primarily against the opposition’s top left-handed hitters if possible rather than in a traditional closer’s role.
Hoffman and Estevez both did a nice job down the stretch in the chances that they received, but both are now on the free agent market themselves looking for opportunities elsewhere. That seemingly leaves a golden opportunity for Romano to step in as the team’s primary closer to start the 2025 season.
Prior to this news, Romano languished with an average draft position after pick-300 over the past few weeks of NFBC Draft Champions leagues. Now that he’s under contract and likely to be the closer for a contending team, it wouldn’t be shocking to see that number immediately slashed in half to around pick-150 or higher – with additional room to grow once he proves his health in the spring.
What’s next for the Phillies?
Adding Romano to their bullpen mix certainly helps to solidify things, but it won’t be the only move they make to that group. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them attempt to bring back either Hoffman or Estevez – or add to add another high-leverage arm or two from the right side.
Aside from that though, it’s likely that the Phillies are going to attempt to cut costs a bit this off-season. They entered the meetings with the second highest payroll in baseball (around $282 million) and could cross past the third and fourth luxury tax thresholds before all is said and done.
While they may not be actively shopping players, there are reports out there that they’re certainly listening to offers on third baseman Alec Bohm, outfielder Nick Castellanos and left-hander Ranger Suarez.
I feel like it’s far more likely that they work in the trade market and move one of those types, rather than making a major move in free agency.
Who else benefits for fantasy purposes?
On the Phillies, there’s no direct beneficiary, though a better bullpen should mean a better chance at victories for Zack Wheeler and the rest of the Phillies’ rotation.
Elsewhere around the league though, I think it solidifies the status of Chad Green as the Blue Jays’ closer. He inherited the role when Romano went down in 2024 and did a terrific job and was the heir apparent to enter the 2025 season with the role.
The fact that the Blue Jays were still courting Romano though and looking for a reunion could have really muddled the situation. With as much success as Romano has had as the team’s closer, it could have been difficult to phase him out of the role – or bump him to the eighth inning altogether – in favor of Green.
With Romano now in Philadelphia, there’s no reason why Green can’t operate in the ninth inning. The 33-year-old locked down a career-high 17 saves during the 2024 campaign while posting a 3.21 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 46/14 K/BB ratio. Expect him to best that total once again during the 2025 season.
Fantasy managers in the early draft rooms have yet to give him that respect, with an average draft position just inside the top-300 players overall. Perhaps there was fear of a Romano return and there’s always a possibility that the Jays also add another established closer to their bullpen. They could even flip the script and deal Green (who is entering the final season of his three-year, $23.25 million deal) and install someone like Erik Swanson in the ninth inning.
With all of the information that we have available to us at the moment though, Green is currently the most likely candidate to open the 2025 season as the Blue Jays’ closer, and his draft cost should start to rise on the news that Romano has officially latched on elsewhere.
Should fantasy managers be happy with Romano’s situation?
Fantasy managers should be thrilled with Romano’s new situation. If you had to rank the three most important factors for a player to record saves, they would be talent, opportunity and team context.
Romano has all of the talent in the world and has proven to be an elite closer in the past as long as he is healthy. Check.
He now has a glorious opportunity in front of him, as he’s the front-runner for saves in the Phillies’ bullpen. Check.
Good teams win more games and provide more opportunities for saves. The Phillies are still one of the best teams in all of baseball and they should be able to provide ample save chances once again in 2025. Check.
As we explored, there’s always a chance that he’s not as healthy as he seems and doesn’t return to being the dominant force that we saw in Toronto from 2021-2023. There’s also the possibility that the Phillies aren’t done adding to their bullpen and they bring in another experienced closer to share the load in the ninth inning.
With all of the information that we have at the moment though, this looks like as good of a landing spot as we ever could have hoped for. Fantasy managers should draft Romano with confidence – both at his current cost and as his draft cost undoubtedly surges in the coming weeks.
