The first base market is moving. Moving is an understatement.A day after Christian Walker signed with the Houston Astros, and hours after the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, the Guardians and Diamondbacks got in on the fun.
Tough as Nayls. 💪
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) December 21, 2024
Welcome to Arizona, Josh Naylor! pic.twitter.com/4csgY0VbvL
In the deal, the Guardians received right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi as well was a Competitive Balance pick in Round B which is currently slated as the 72nd overall pick.
But the Guardians didn’t wait long to add a replacement for Naylor.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor in a trade with the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 21, 2024
Let’s take a look at these moves, and the potential fantasy impact for all parties involved for the 2025 season.
Why did the Diamondbacks pick Naylor as the replacement for Walker?
Naylor was a first-round pick by the Marlins in 2015, and after a couple of trades involving Miami and the Padres, he made his MLB debut for the Guardians in 2019. He played mostly in a platoon role in his time with Cleveland until 2022, but he’s been a mainstay in the Guardians’ lineup since. He took a major step forward in 2023 with an .842 OPS, and he made the All-Star Game for the second consecutive season in 2024 after hitting .243/.320/.456 with a career-high 31 homers and 108 RBI.
And those numbers are backed up by the advanced stats. In fact, one could argue that those numbers in 2024 were a bit unlucky. He was in the 54th percentile or better in every “results based” metric according to Baseball Savant outside of chase rate (3.2 percent, 25th percentile), and even while swinging at pitches outside of the zone at a high rate, he still had an excellent 9.2 percent walk rate. He makes hard contact, he barrels the baseball, and as a player that will turn 28 in June, there’s plenty of reason to believe he’s going to be just as good or better in the coming years.
Why would the Guardians want to move on from Naylor?
There’s a few reasons, and of course we’ll talk about the addition of Santana in a second.
The biggest reason for trading Naylor has very little to do with his ability, but rather his contract. He’s eligible for arbitration for the final time for the 2025 season, and then he’ll hit free agency after the season. Cleveland continues to operate as a small-market club and will continue to do so, so they obviously felt better about moving Naylor now rather than potentially losing him for nothing at the end of the year.
On top of that, the Guardians do have one of the best prospects at the first base position in Kyle Manzardo. Manzardo posted a respectable .703 OPS in his first MLB action, but that number is weighed down by struggling mightily after first being promoted; something several quality hitters have dealt with only to forge excellent careers. It’s possible Manzardo could be the designated hitter with Santana at first base, but either way, this does seem to make his path to helping in 2025 clear. He’d be someone I’d target late in fantasy this winter.
How about Slade Cecconi?
Cecconi was drafted by the Diamondbacks with the 33rd pick out of Miami in 2020, and he was someone who was getting Top 100 hype coming into the 2022 season. He’s seen his stock drop considerably with poor results at various levels, but despite his 6.66 ERA over 20 appearances -- 13 starts -- there were some good moments for the 25-year-old right-hander. He pounds the strike zone as seen in a five percent walk rate over his 77 innings, and he had a very respectable 36.4 percent hard-hit percentage allowed in that timeframe. All of the other numbers are pretty ugly -- particularly a barrel rate above 10 percent -- but the Guardians have done wonders with this type of profile. Fantasy players should still play the waiting game before investing.
Does Carlos Santana still have something left in the tank?
Yep. At least based on 2024.
Santana was infamously traded to the Guardians for Casey Blake all the way back in 2008 from the Dodgers, and he’ll now be making his third stint with Cleveland. He spent 2024 with the Twins, and the 38-year-old hit 23 homers with a .749 OPS -- good for an OPS+ of 109 -- and on top of being a solid offensive player, he ranked in the 97th percentile in outs above average according to Baseball Savant.
Santana’s calling card has long been his patient at the plate, and that didn’t change last year. He drew walks in 10.9 percent of his plate appearances, and only swung at pitches outside of the zone 23.4 percent of the time. He doesn’t have quite the power he once had, but he still had a solid expected slugging percentage of .419 -- ranking in the 58th percentile of qualified hitters -- and an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, which put him in the 52nd percentile.
The one thing to keep in mind with Santana outside of the fact that he turns 39 in April, is that despite hitting from both sides of the plate, he does have extreme platoon stats. In 2024 he hit a less-than-desirable .219/.318/.356 as a left-handed hitter, while he mashed southpaws to the tune of .286/.356/.578. Ultimately it should “balance out” well enough, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Where would you rank Naylor, Santana and Manzardo for 2025?
Naylor is obviously still the top target here, and if you wanted to argue he was a top five first baseman coming into the year, I wouldn’t argue with you for too long. I would place Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper clearly above Naylor with Matt Olson also over Naylor by a not-insignificant margin, and I would take Walker over him if only because of how much I love that park fit and Walker’s consistency. That puts Walker in the 6-8 range competing with guys like Salvador Perez and Pete Alonso, but again, the fact he’s just entering his prime makes him someone I’d consider in the first five rounds.
Santana is a little trickier. The power and a chance to drive in some pretty good players is intriguing, but he doesn’t contribute in batting average and steals, and you may not see him in the lineup every day. He’d be in the corner-infield range for me at this stage, but it’s not hard to see him being relevant in 2025.
Manzardo is the toughest to rank. The fact he was playing -- and playing well -- in the postseason for the Guardians does tell you that Cleveland has confidence in the 24-year-old, and he’s put up monster numbers in the minors. You can’t use too high of a pick on a player entering his first full season playing first base that doesn’t have an elite tool, but there’s more than enough offensive upside to suggest he can be a breakout player this summer. He’s someone I’d want to roster heavily in keeper/dynasty formats.
