The Juan Soto saga finally came to a close late on Sunday night with the 26-year-old superstar signing a 15-year, $765 million contract to join the New York Mets.
BREAKING: Superstar outfielder Juan Soto and the New York Mets are in agreement on a 15-year, $765 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest deal in professional sports history.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2024
The contract, which is the largest one in professional sports history, allegedly includes an opt-out after five years and no deferred money. It also includes escalators that can allow Soto to earn more than $800 million. It’s an obscene amount of money but perhaps not unwarranted for a player that already has a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 36 and a career slash line of .285/.421/.532.
The contract will take Soto through his age-41 season, which is not an unrealistic age for a player who has such an elite feel for the strike zone and solid hit tool that he should age well as a designated hitter. In seven pro seasons, Soto is a batting champion, four-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and World Series champion.
So where do we go from here? What does this move mean for Soto’s fantasy value, and what does it mean for the Yankees, Red Sox, and other teams that missed out on signing the generational star?
How does this impact Juan Soto’s fantasy value?
Realistically, there is no major impact on Juan Soto’s fantasy value based on this move. Yes, there are some things we should take into consideration, and we’ll get into that, but this is also a guy who has hit at least .275 in every MLB season but one, drove in 95 runs or more in every full MLB season but one, and scored at least 93 runs in every full MLB season but one. There is a standard baseline of production that we know we’re getting from Juan Soto, and that isn’t going to change no matter where he plays.
The RBI totals will remain in question until the Mets fill out the rest of their lineup. Will they bring back Pete Alonso? Will they let Mark Vientos play third base or will they slide him to DH and bring in another third baseman? These are all questions that will help determine just how deep the lineup is around him, but we know that Mets owner Steve Cohen is going to spend money, and it’s highly unlikely that the Mets lineup in 2025 will be worse than the lineup the Yankees had for much of 2024.
For the vast majority of this past season, the Yankees featured a lineup of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and players like Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Trevino, Alex Verdugo, and Oswaldo Cabrera. Even in a worst case scenario, the Mets will likely field a comparable lineup, so it doesn’t feel fair to predict any sort of RBI decline or runs scored decline for Soto in 2025.
Soto has always stolen about six to 12 bases per season, so expecting something in that range again also feels fair, which means the home run total is the only category where we can expect real movement. Soto hit a career-high 41 home runs at Yankee Stadium in 2024, and Yankee Stadium ranks 3rd for left-handed hitters in HR park factors, while Citi Field ranks 21st. It would be logical to assume a slight dip in home run totals moving to Citi Field; however, Statcast’s Expected Home Runs by Park says that Soto would have hit 46 home runs in 2024 if adjusted for Citi Field’s dimensions, so it’s not so simple as to just assume “bigger park, fewer home runs.”
We also have the reality that Soto has hit at least 29 home runs in every full MLB season since he debuted and has hit 35 or more in three of his five full MLB seasons. Even if there is a slightly diminished home run total, you’re still looking at a guy who should push mid-30s home runs with one of the best on-base percentages in the league. Plus, he’s enjoyed hitting at Citi Field so far in his career.
Juan Soto's bat works everywhere. His numbers at Citi Field, though, are something else. In 35 career games at Citi Field (146 plate appearances), Soto has a 1.175 OPS with 12 home runs, including two of the five longest home runs in the stadium’s history (466 feet, 463 feet).
— Will Sammon (@WillSammon) December 9, 2024
The small outfield dimensions in Yankee Stadium also mean that Yankee Stadium and Citi Field rank almost identical in park factors when it comes to left-handed batters simply getting hits. As a result, it’s safe to assume that Soto should hit around .285 with around 35 home runs, 95 runs scored, 100 RBI, and six stolen bases while playing for the Mets in 2025. That remains a dynamic fantasy contributor.
What is the risk?
Umm...none. It’s Juan Soto. We just discussed how consistent he has been in his professional career, aside from the 2022 season that saw him get traded to San Diego mid-way through the season.
The long-term risk for the Mets is that Soto is already a below-average defensive outfielder as a 26-year-old, which means he could become a full-time designated hitter far sooner into this 15 year contract than they’d like. However, that will have little to not impact on his fantasy production.
What’s next for the Mets?
Don’t expect the Mets to rest on their laurels because they signed Juan Soto (and Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes). Steve Cohen signed Soto to win a World Series, and he has the money to go out and sign more big contracts to make sure that happens.
The biggest question remains at first base. Pete Alonso has indicated a desire to come back to New York, and the Mets would likely be happy to welcome Pete back on a short-term deal. Pete hitting behind Soto would be the best case scenario for both of their fantasy values and could see Pete push career-high RBI totals.
If the Mets decide to go in a different direction at first base, they could look to add Christian Walker or Paul Goldschmidt on short-term deals or pehaps let Mark Vientos play first base and try to lure Alex Bregman away from the Astros to play third base. However, bringing back Pete feels like the likeliest path.
The Mets then will also need to decide what to do at designated hitter. Do they give Brett Baty another shot at third base and use Vientos as the DH? Do they keep Vientos at third and sign somebody like Joc Pederson, Jurickson Profar, Jesse Winker, Eloy Jimenez, or Max Kepler to try and fill that spot?
There are a few moving pieces left with this lineup, but don’t expect the Mets to try and cut costs on those remaining moves.
Who else benefits for fantasy purposes?
This is obviously a big boost to the rest of the Mets lineup. If we assume that Soto continues to hit in his usual spot - second in the order - then he figures to hit behind Francisco Lindor. That should mean more pitches to hit for Lindor, since pitchers won’t want to walk him with Soto up next, and should also mean more runs scored for Lindor. However, it could mean a dip in Lindor’s stolen base total if they don’t want him running with Soto up; although, that remains to be seen.
Soto being on base will be great news for the middle of the Mets order, which is really just Mark Vientos right now until the Mets decide on a plan at first base and designated hitter. However, whoever takes those jobs is going to get plenty of opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position, which is always a plus for fantasy purposes.
If we leave the Mets for a second, this does also mean that Aaon Judge can move back to his more natural right field, which is good news for both him and the Yankees, and it does potentially open up a spot in center field for 21-year-old Jasson Dominguez, who has profiled better in center field as a minor leaguer than in left field. It also means that Wilyer Abreu is currently the right fielder for the Red Sox. Of course, they are allegedly trying to trade him for a starting pitcher since top prospect Roman Anthony is close to his debut, which means the celebration could be short-lived for Abreu.
Who is negatively impacted from a fantasy perspective by Juan Soto signing with the Mets?
The Mets traded for Jose Siri earlier in the offseason, and it seems like he and Tyrone Taylor will man center field with Brandon Nimmo in left field, so the addition of Soto could mean that Starling Marte, who has one year left on his contract, is on the outside looking in. The Mets could look to play Marte at designated hitter, but he’s an oft-injured 36-year-old, so it would make more sense to see if there was a team that was interested in taking a gamble on him as a regular outfielder.
You could also argue that Soto being with the Mets is not great news for the Mets pitchers given his struggles in the outfield. I’m not ready to say that it will make a meaningful difference for fantasy, and Marte also graded out poorly in right field in 2024, so there’s a chance that it’s more of a lateral move for the Mets pitchers, but it’s certainly something to monitor with any fly balls pitchers who win spots in the rotation.
Should fantasy managers be happy with Soto’s situation?
Fantasy managers should be as happy as they were with Soto’s situation in 2024. The Mets are likely going to continue to add talent, and Soto has not seen his output swing wildly over the years depending on what stadium he calls home. We have a baseline of production that we feel comfortable getting from him and that led him to finish 13th on the Fangraphs’ Player Rater in 2023 and 5th in 2024. It feels like a good bet that Soto will end 2025 as one of the top 10 players in the player rater as well and a great pick at the back half of the first round in fantasy drafts.
