The Dodgers are less than a month removed from being crowned champions of baseball, but as good as they were, there was an obvious hole on the roster, and the Dodgers didn’t take long to address it.
Multiple outlets — including the player himself — report that Blake Snell has agreed to a five-year deal with the Dodgers. The contract will reportedly pay him $183 million over five years, contains a signing bonus over $50 million and some of that money is going to be deferred.
Clearly, this is a massive move for the Dodgers but it’s also a significant one for fantasy managers who might be thinking of rostering Snell for the 2025 campaign. There are some questions here, however; some that can be answered now, some that we’ll have to play the waiting game on.
Just how good is Blake Snell?
When healthy? Really, really good. Snell has won two Cy Youngs in his career, and the 31-year-old would have received down ballot votes if not for, well, we’ll get to that in a second. For his career, Snell owns a 3.19 ERA over nine seasons, and his 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings is the best in the history of the sport. He’s coming off a campaign where he forged a 3.12 ERA, and despite throwing just 104 innings, he was able to strike out 145 batters.
What do the advanced stats and stuff say about Snell?
They back up the results. And then some. Snell ranked in the 90th percentile or better in expected ERA (2.57) expected batting average (.178), whiff percentage (37.7 percent of swings), strikeout percentage (34.7 percent of at-bats), average exit velocity (86.5 mph) and hard-hit percentage (28.9 percent). He has a solid fastball that has above-average velocity while averaging 95.9 mph with his heater, but it’s his secondary stuff that makes him one of the best in the sport. Batters hit all of .111 against Snell’s curveball last year, and they struggled to a slash of .167/.267/.290 against his slider. Add in a solid change and there’s a complete arsenal to make the southpaw one of the most challenging hurlers for hitters.
What’s the risk, then?
Again, when Snell has been on the mound, there haven’t been many better. Availability has been an issue, for a couple of reasons. The first is health; Snell has reached 30 starts only twice in his career, and they just so happen to be the years he took home the Cy Young. In 2024, he was limited to 20 starts in part due to him signing his one-year deal with the San Francisco Giants late, but also because he went on the injured list with a groin strain as well as an adductor injury. The latter has been a constant issue for Snell over the last few years, and while he hasn’t dealt with major arm issues minus having loose bodies in his elbow removed, it’s fair to say that there’s injury risk here. There’s injury risk with every pitcher, but more so with Snell than your typical one.
Staying healthy has been an issue, but another issue for Snell has been high pitch counts. His command is nowhere near as good as his stuff, and there will be a fair share of free passes in his outings. When you add those minimum of four pitch walks to the minimum of three offerings to get a strikeout, it adds up, and that along with the health issues has seen Snell reach 180 innings just twice in his career. There are long spurts of brilliance, but there are going to be starts that frustrate fantasy managers, based on what he’s done for nearly a decade
How does Snell fit in with the Dodgers?
Very well, for a multitude of reasons. The first being that he’s a sensational talent that joins fellow sensational arms like Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a rotation that has as much ability as any in baseball, if not more.
But it’s also a rotation that has serious durability issues. Ohtani is coming off Tommy John surgery and may not be ready for the start of the season. Glasnow — Snell’s fellow teammate in Tampa Bay — and Yamamoto both dealt with injury issues during the 2024 campaign. The arms behind those four like Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Emmet Sheehan also are coming off injuries, Clayton Kershaw may or may not be back and was severely limited last summer, and Walker Buehler — also a free agent — is one year removed from his own Tommy John surgery.
So yes, this rotation has the stuff to be the best in the sport. It’s also very possible none of these arms makes more than 25 starts.
One thing that could help Snell stay healthy is a bit of a hindrance to the fantasy players who might look to roster him. The Dodgers will be going with a six-man rotation in 2025 in an effort to keep arms like Ohtani, Glasnow and now Snell as fresh as possible. That’s great for his availability throughout the year, but that’s at least a handful of starts he’ll “miss” compared to some of the other arms
Is Blake Snell’s stock up or down after this move, and are there any fantasy losers from this signing?
If there are fantasy “losers” from this signing, it’s probably Jack Flaherty and Buehler. The Dodgers are considered heavy favorites to sign Roki Sasaki even after procuring Snell’s services, and while the Dodgers won’t ever be priced out on anyone (note: please don’t be surprised if they sign Juan Soto, this is what they do), it seems more likely that Flaherty and Buehler now are pitching for new teams in 2024. That’s not to say either hurler can’t find a quality situation for 2025 and beyond, but it’d be hard to find as good of scenario as the Dodgers for either.
As for Snell, the answer is up. I’d probably argue way up. He gets to pitch in a park that shouldn’t affect his skill set whatsoever, and he’s joining a team that just won the World Series in large part thanks to the ridiculously good lineup that he’ll now have backing him up. Yes, there’s a good chance Snell will miss time with an injury, and yes, there’s an even better chance you’ll be furious about multiple starts where he can’t go five innings. But the rates will be fantastic, and all he’s going to have to do is go those five to get a lot of wins. There’s a chance Snell can be an SP1 under his new circumstances, and I’d have severe FOMO about not having him on the roster for 2025.
