We’re now into the final month of the fantasy baseball season and that means we need to shift the way we manage our starting pitchers. In truth, we really should have been doing that for a few weeks now, but with most starters only set to make four or five more starts in the 2024 season, we need to be managing on more of a week-to-week mindset rather than a Rest of Season mindset.
To help you do that, I’m going to rank and break down my favorite streaming matchups each week from here until the end of the year. Below you’ll find multiple tables that rank streaming starting pitchers based on those I have a strong preference for, those I’m fairly confident in, those I have some hesitation about, and those I’d only stream if I’m desperate. Within the tiers, you can make some changes based on your own needs. If you need strikeouts more than ratios, you can bump up the two-start pitchers over the pitchers with one good matchup, etc.
Some of the rankings will also be influenced by future matchups. For example, if I have two starters really close for this upcoming week, but one of them gets an elite matchup the following week and the other is in a matchup I want to avoid, then I’d prefer to add the pitcher I’ll use for two straight weeks because that makes my team better in the long run. This is the time of year when we need to be ruthless. If you’re not going to start a pitcher for two weeks, move on. If a pitcher has been great for you but now has bad matchups (hello Bowden Francis), move on.
Your decisions will change based on your league type and settings, but I’ll do my best here to give you the information that will help in your formats. As is usual with my articles, a streaming starter pitcher is rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo formats, so just keep that in mind as we’re going through.
Offenses to Attack
Before we get into our rankings, just a quick note about the offenses we want to attack. I used FanGraphs team stats over the last month, searching for metrics like wRC+, strikeout rate, OPS, etc., and narrowed down the list of offenses to the ones that have struggled in those areas.
To stream starting pitching, we want to target pitchers going against the White Sox, Angels, Marlins, Pirates, Mariners, Rays, and Rockies on the road only. Think of these as HIGHWAY OFFENSES - not stopping at all.
I also am more than comfortable using pitchers against the Tigers, Giants, Cardinals, Nationals, and Reds when they’re on the road only. Think of these as GREEN LIGHT OFFENSES - you can’t open it up like you can on a highway, but you’re good to go.
Lastly, some offenses that have been solid over the last month but won’t scare me off of a good streamer are the Cubs, Athletics, Blue Jays, and Mets. Think of these are YELLOW LIGHT OFFENSES - some hesitation but still good to go.
Now for the rankings...
Osvaldo Bido is the 45th-ranked pitcher in Yahoo formats over the last month, pitching to a 2.22 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. As I mentioned last week, SIERA and other ERA predictors don’t fully buy it but I like that Bido has leaned into the changeup and cutter more in recent starts. Even if I don’t but this level over the course of the full season, I certainly buy it against the White Sox, which is the same argument for Matthew Boyd, who has looked good since coming back and will also be facing maybe the worst team we’ve seen in the modern MLB era.
Hey, all. What are we doing? Ryne Nelson is in the rotation and probably deserves to be started against any offense right now. Since the calendar flipped to July, he has a 2.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts in 11 starts. Who else is putting up those kinds of numbers? Who else is doing it while pitching for a good team? I know the Milwaukee matchup isn’t ideal, but you should be starting Nelson with confidence.
Andrew Heaney does this often, going on hot streaks that provide tons of fantasy value. As James Schiano and I discussed on the Rotoworld Baseball Show, there might not be a pitcher in baseball who has a better schedule to end the season than Heaney who faces the Angels twice and A’s twice. Over the last month, he has a 2.70 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts in 30 innings. He hasn’t earned many wins because he isn’t pitching deep into games, but you have to think that changes here.
Really the only knock against David Festa is that the Twins have only allowed him to throw more than five innings just once this season, but his last two starts have been great and really five of his last six have been good. Over the last month, he has a 3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts in 28 innings. I think the Twins will let him go six innings if he’s cruising against the Angels and that should come with a fair number of strikeouts.
It’s pretty hard to bench David Peterson right now considering he has allowed two runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts dating back to August 3rd. He had a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Red Sox on Tuesday and will get a mediocre Blue Jays offense, so he’s a pretty easy start for me this week.
DJ Herz was great against the Braves last week, inducing 18 whiffs on 45 swings for a 40 percent whiff rate and 34 percent CSW. The three walks in five innings are not ideal, and the 60% zone rate on his four-seam fastball could afford to get better, but he got plenty of chases outside of the zone on his changeup and slider. Since July 15th, Herz has a 2.62 ERA (3.71 SIERA), 1.17 WHIP, and 18.8% K-BB% which is hard to find fault in. There is a chance his command could fail him in any start and that has led to home run issues, which could be a concern against some of the hitters in this Cubs lineup, but I’m happy to take the gamble.
Luis L Ortiz hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts, and his poor outings of late have come against the Padres, Rangers, and Diamondbacks twice. The Marlins are nowhere close to that kind of offense, so I’m more than happy to roll with Ortiz who has been far more bad than good since moving into the rotation full-time.
Alex Cobb is back after suffering a cracked fingernail, and he’s been good in Cleveland, pitching to a 2.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. Pair a strong performance with a matchup against a bad offense and I’m all in. Same can be said of his teammate Gavin Williams, who has had his ups and downs after recovering from injury but is a talented pitcher who can certainly dominate the Rays.
Last week I mentioned that Cade Povich had made two starts since being recalled and has demonstrated a new pitch mix in that time, scrapping his cutter and leaning more into his changeup and curve. Well, his third start since coming back was against the White Sox and he, unsurprisingly, dominated them, striking out 10 in 7 1/3 shutout innings. I don’t love the matchup in Fenway, but as James Schiano mentioned on out podcast this week, the Red Sox have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitchers, so maybe Povich can be decent in that one and then dominate the Tigers, which would lead to a solid two-start week.
I mentioned last week that I’m generally not a huge Frankie Montas fan, but he has been good since coming to the Brewers, and over the last month he’s posted a 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts in 28 innings. His fastball velocity is up to 97 mph, and he’s leaning into the pitch more while also going heavier into his cutter and going away from his splitter. The Giants offense hasn’t been great lately, and so I’m willing to take the gamble on Montas here with a good shot at a win too.
The second week in a row where you’d think Jeffrey Springs should be in the tier above, and maybe I should have learned my lesson after last week, but those two starts coming up are a bit daunting. Springs did throw six innings on Tuesday, which is the first time he’s gone beyond five innings in any start is coming back. That’s great news for his win chances, but it’s hard to see the Rays beating either of the Phillies or Guardians next week. I think Springs will pitch well, but I’m not sure he has quite the upside against those two offenses that the pitchers in the tier above do.
Aaron Civale is another pitcher who has been strong of late and gets tough matchups. Although, really he gets one touch matchup. Still, that matchup against Arizona is enough for me to keep him in this tier since I don’t quite buy the hot stretch he’s experiencing right now.
Yes, Zebby Matthews got lit up by the Blue Jays, but that’s going to happen to rookies as they adjust to the big leagues. In his three starts before that, he posted a 3.00 ERA (3.90 SIERA), 1.00 WHIP, and 17.7% K-BB%. I’m also a little bummed because he was supposed to get the Rays this week before the Twins switched up their rotation, and he got a tougher draw. Cincinnati away from Great American Ballpark hasn’t been as good an offense, so I’m fairly confident in going back to Zebby here.
Patrick Corbin delivered for us in his first start of the week against the Marlins, and I have to believe he can do it next week as well. The new cutter has been good for him, and he’s been leaning into it more as the year goes on. It’s crazy to think that we’re relying on Corbin, but he has a 3.66 ERA over his last 32 innings with 32 strikeouts, so maybe we need to look beyond the name. Same goes for Bailey Falter, who pitches for the Pirates but also gets Miami next week. Falter hasn’t been as good of late, but he has a 4.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the season, and I think he can put together a solid enough effort against the Marlins.
I almost put Edward Cabrera in the first tier because he looked good against the Giants, allowing one run in 5.1 innings while striking out three. I think he could easily do something similar against the Pirates, but I’d be lying if I said I felt confident that he would.
JP Sears has gotten strong results after a pitch mix change that saw him move away from his sweeper and lean more into his changeup and four-seam fastball. Heading into last night’s start, Sears had a 3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings over the last months. Obviously, last night’s start didn’t go well, but we can’t let that overshadow everything else he’s been doing. If he were just facing the White Sox, he would be in the first tier, but that second start against the Astros is the kind of game that could ruin a week. I still think he pitches well enough against the White Sox to have a solid week, but it’s risky.
Reid Detmers is back and looked good in his first start back, striking out 10 Dodgers while allowing two runs in six innings. That gives me some more confidence that he can handle the Twins, but let’s not act like we haven’t been teased by Detmers in the past only to be let down by a cold stretch.
To be honest, I don’t really trust any of Chris Flexen, Austin Gomber, or Mitchell Parker, but these matchups are too good to ignore.
What have they done to my boy Cody Bradford? Bradford has been the 120th-ranked pitcher in Yahoo over the last month with a 2.61 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts in 31 innings over the last month. However, the potential return of Jacob deGrom means Bradford is now set to face the Diamondbacks next week instead of the Mariners. That’s a pretty major change and a knock to Bradford’s fantasy value. If Bradford goes back to facing the Mariners then he’d be moved up at least one tier.
Shane Baz is another pitcher who has been solid of late with a 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts in 24 innings over the last month. However, his slider has yet to show up like we saw in previous years, and the lack of strikeouts is a bit of a concern against the Guardians offense, even if the Guardians haven’t been hitting great lately.
Adam Oller and JT Ginn are both here for matchups. Oller pitches for a bad Miami team, but he gets two solid starts this week and Ginn, a former Mets prospect, is not throwing 95 mph sinkers in the A’s rotation, which led to a strong performance against the Mariners this week, allowing three runs in six innings with seven strikeouts. If he did that to the Mariners, I think he can do better against the White Sox, but he’s a total unknown.
Valente Bellozo is a pitcher I don’t trust who gets two great matchups. MacKenzie Gore is a pitcher I want to trust who gets one good matchup and one awful one, and Nick Martinez is a pitcher I kind of trust who gets two above-average offenses.
Antonio Senzatela is coming off the IL and gets a great first start against the Tigers, but he likely won’t pitch that deep into the game and then he gets the Cubs in Coors, which we don’t love. Rhett Lowder is another two-start pitcher who has two starts that are fine but not really ones we want to target. Plus I wasn’t overly impressed by Lowder in his first MLB action. Griffin Canning and Jack Kochanowicz are names to keep an eye on because they both get the White Sox in two straight starts after this week. I don’t love starting them against the Twins, but if you’re worried about missing the chance to pitch them against the White Sox, I could see adding them now to ensure you get those games.
I know Caden Dana pitched well in his debut, but I can’t run that risk against the Astros.