Spring Training is just exhibition baseball. We all know it. Players are working on things. Results don’t matter, and new trends or pieces of information can change in an instant. This means we don’t want to change our offseason rankings and analysis too much based on a few at-bats or innings pitched in Spring Training games.
But that’s also not fun.
Sometimes we see a new skill or a bump in velocity and we want to overreact. We want to dream of the potential upside if these changes stick. So today we’re going to have some fun and give ourselves over to the hyperbole. In reality, we want to notice some of these results, keep them in the back of our minds, and see if they continue in the weeks to come. Today, we’ll allow ourselves to think “What if this is a new level?” Give yourself over to optimism and let’s over-react to spring training.
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PITCHERS
Spencer Strider - SP, Braves
Strider is throwing a new curveball. He’s now the best pitcher of the last decade and will have a sub-2.00 ERA. OK, well, Strider is throwing a new curveball, and I wrote in more depth about the most talked about new pitch in baseball here. Check it out.
Casey Mize - SP, Tigers
Mize is back, baby!
I know it feels like forever ago, but Mize was the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and seemed like a lock to be a big-league star. He never quite put up elite minor league numbers, and then underwhelmed in 188.2 MLB innings while battling injuries. Even though he missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Mize also admitted he had been pitching through a back injury for years that he finally got cleaned up. So, Mize now appears to be healthy and ready for the 2024 season, so we like to see that.
We also like that, through two starts, Mize is averaging 95.4 mph on his four-seam, which is up two mph from his 2022 season. Considering he’s coming off arm surgery, the fact that his velocity is already up is something to note. He also is showcasing much more Induced Vertical Break (iVB) on his fastball, which means it’s “rising” more or, in reality, just sinking less than a normal fastball would as it heads toward home plate. In 2022, Mize’s iVB was just 14.4 inches, but it has been up over 18 inches in both starts of spring training with 7.3 feet of extension, which would give him elite extension and iVB. That’s a pretty good combination.
He’s also throwing his slider harder and with less movement from a higher arm angle, which is better for command and raw Stuff+ grades. Pair all of that with a return to his old splitter, and there’s a chance that we’ll finally get the version of Casey Mize we expected to get years ago. The non-optimistic part of your brain is saying that he’s likely to start the year on the IL as he continues to get a feel for his pitches since command is often the last thing to come back after Tommy John, but you tell that part to quit it for today.
In addition to Mize, Matt Manning has also shown increased velocity this year, averaging 95.4 mph on his four-seam, which is up two miles per hour from last year. Manning’s entire arsenal is up over two mph. I’m not sure I need his slider to be harder with less movement since it graded out as one of the best sliders in baseball last year, but we can’t complain about the results so far. Through two starts, Manning has thrown five innings with six strikeouts and allowed just one hit, which happened to be a home run to Juan Soto. Manning seems locked into a starting role in Detroit and has flashed good ratios in his MLB innings already, so if he adds some swing-and-miss to his game, he could be a great deep-league option.
Final line for #Tigers starter Matt Manning: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. 39 pitches, 29 strikes.
— Evan Petzold (@EvanPetzold) March 3, 2024
He threw 22 fastballs, 11 sliders, five changeups and one curveball. Five whiffs: one fastball, three sliders, one changeup. Fastball averaged 95.4 mph, maxed out at 97.4 mph.
Kutter Crawford - SP, Red Sox
The Red Sox rotation is blowing people away in the spring and will be one of the best in baseball. OK, that’s maybe too much over-reaction. However, the Red Sox are pitching well and the team injected tons of resources into their pitching development this offseason. Crawford was excellent on Sunday against the Blue Jays and has now allowed just one run through his first five innings while striking out six. Crawford already had elite iVB on his four-seam, but it’s now pushing 20 inches as he continues to locate them up in the zone for swings-and-misses.
Last season, Crawford threw six different pitches, and five of them graded out as above-average offerings based on Pitcher List’s PLV metrics. He’s been showcasing his whole arsenal this offseason and pumping strikes with basically everything. He has a case to be the first Red Sox starting pitcher drafted this season since he’s locked into a rotation spot in Boston and looks good so far.
Bowden Francis - SP, Blue Jays
The Blue Jays came into spring training and said Alek Manoah was their fifth starter and was looking great. Manoah then promptly looked terrible in his first start and is now dealing with a “cranky shoulder.” Given how poorly he pitched last year, it’s starting to look like he may not open the season in the rotation. That would mean a spot for Bowden Francis. Well, through two starts, Francis is averaging 95.5 mph on his fastball, up over one mph from last year, and has added over an inch of iVB to over 18 inches. That would give him above-average velocity, extension, and vertical movement on a pitch that already graded out well last year. Considering Francis’ bread-and-butter pitch is an elite slider, pairing that with a plus four-seam gives him an even safer floor. What if Francis claims the fifth spot in the rotation and doesn’t give it back?
MacKenzie Gore - SP, Nationals
What a ride it’s been for Gore. He was once the top pitching prospect in baseball, then he forgot how to throw strikes, then he got traded, and then he had an up-and-down debut in Washington. Still just 25 years old, is it possible this is the year that Gore puts it together?
The left-hander changed his curveball last year, and even though it didn’t grade out well, he gave up an above-average 38% ICR and registered a 17.4% SwStr%. Now it appears he’s altered both his four-seam and his approach. So far in spring, Gore is sitting 96 mph with his four-seam, which is up one mph from last year. He also is showcasing 18 inches of vertical break, which is over an inch more than last year, and, more importantly, he’s throwing it up in the zone more after throwing it up just 49% of the time last year. If Gore is keeping a harder fastball up in the zone, his curve and slider could play up more in the bottom of the zone, and we could see a real leap forward. Team context be damned.
I really hope this is an approach change for MacKenzie Gore.
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) February 25, 2024
Sitting 96 mph with good iVB, the problem has been the lack of consistent elevation on his four-seamer.
No surprise he went 5/13 whiffs with 11/13 strikes with these locations. pic.twitter.com/aS4PCmUAzE
Ryan Pepiot - SP, Rays
Ryan Pepiot is another pitcher who showcased more elevated fastballs early in spring training. That’s a good thing because last year, the right-hander had 16.7 inches of iVB and just under seven inches of extension, both of which are very good, but he threw the fastball up in the zone just 44% of the time. As a result, the pitch had just a 10.3% SwStr%. After being traded to Tampa Bay in the offseason, we expected that the Rays would make some changes, and it seems like having him elevate his fastballs more was a key one. He still averaged 16.7 inches of iVB in his early spring appearances but was up to 18.5 inches on a few pitches, so, you know, it’s in there. If he can add an improved four-seam to a really good change-up and solid slider, Pepiot could be in for a good season in Tampa Bay. But you already knew that because Tampa has that voodoo pitching magic.
Roansy Contreras, SP Pirates
Another former top prospect has got his groove back. So far through two spring starts, Roansy Contreras is averaging 94.9 mph on his fastball with (allegedly because we have to self-calculate this) 17.6 inches of iVB. Oh, OK. Last year, Contreras averaged 94.3 mph on the four-seam with just 15.6 inches of iVB, so this would be a big and important change because his fastball got hit hard last year with a 43.7% ICR and just a 4.1% SwStr%. Yes, you read that correctly.
However, this change is believable because Roansy has shown this with his fastball before. In 2022, he averaged 95.6 mph on his fastball with 17 inches of iVB to go along with his above-average extension. The pitch still wasn’t great, but it missed double the number of bats. It got hit hard, but he only threw it up in the zone 46% of the time, so if Contreras has his old velocity and vertical movement and also throws it up in the zone, then we could have something here since the fastball is just a complementary pitch to his really good slider.
I wrote about Contreras as a late-round sleeper last year, and the fifth starter spot is up for grabs in Pittsburgh, so I could be ready to buy back in for deeper formats.
We should also note that Bailey Falter has seen a velocity increase on his fastball in addition to a jump in iVB to 18.3 inches (maybe the Pirates data is off?). Quinn Priester is also getting in on the fun with a new slider that’s harder and looks more like a cutter. He’s likely going to need a lot more than that to win the fifth spot in the rotation, but it’s nice to see him changing and trying to tweak his pitch mix after a poor rookie year. Look, the Pirates might be fun this year. It’s not likely because of Falter and Priester, but I think this team could surprise some people when Roansy clicks and they call up Paul Skenes and Jared Jones.
HITTERS
Wyatt Langford - OF, Rangers
Wyatt Langford is the best hitter in baseball. After Mike Kurland put the reverse jinx on him, Langford has caught fire and is now 6-for-17 with three home runs, seven RBI, and a 1.332 OPS. Langford is now being firmly drafted inside the top 100. Since this article is about overreacting and we’re already doing that with Langford, I’ll overreact in the other direction.
There’s nothing against Langford, but he has just 17 games played above High-A, and Rangers beat writers have suggested the team is not likely to put Langford on the MLB roster just to have him DH. In part, they don’t want to impede his all-around development by not having him play the field, and there’s simply no room in the Rangers outfield just like there’s no room at the inn for Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers in Baltimore. There is also a very real component that being a DH and having to sit with your at-bats for three innings is hard for some people to do. It’s taxing mentally and many players have discussed that they hate not playing the field. It’s not the best way to bring your top prospect up to the major leagues given that mental component.
Another thing to consider is that 3/5 of the Rangers starting rotation is coming back from injury in June/July with Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle. The team is content to just stay afloat in the early part of the season and then turn it on late. That could also involve calling Langford up in May/June. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but it certainly could.
We should also note that Langford’s teammate Ezequiel Duran is 7-for-17 to start the spring with a 1.032 OPS. He’s going to start for Texas while Corey Seager is hurt, so Duran should be drafted in most league types, even if you might cut him in a month.
Colton Cowser - OF, Orioles
Cowser is tied for the MLB lead with three home runs so far this spring, going 4-for-11 with a 1.745 OPS, three walks, and six strikeouts. It was a rough MLB debut for Cowser, who hit .115/.286/.148 in 26 games with the Orioles last year, but he has always shown plus power and enough speed to steal double-digit bases. The improved results are due, in part, to an offseason spent retooling his swing, and Baltimore won’t be able to keep him down for too long, if at all.
Colton Cowser just obliterated a home run off a lefty. Third home run this spring! pic.twitter.com/hLkAsItP3u
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) March 3, 2024
I should also note that teammate Kyle Stowers also has three home runs, going 4-for-13 with a 1.357 OPS and Coby Mayo continues to look good, going 5-for-15 early this spring with three doubles and a 1.007 OPS. Mayo has been working at both 3B and LF this offseason, and all of this is just further bad news for Austin Hays, who doesn’t seem to have a future in the Baltimore outfield.
Ceddanne Rafaela - OF, Red Sox
The Red Sox’s third-ranked prospect is turning into the Greek God of Walks. OK, not really, but four walks in six games is pretty good for Rafaela since he walked just four times in 28 games for the Red Sox last year. The team wanted him to show improved plate discipline, and he’s doing that so far this spring while going 4-for-13 with two steals and a .856 OPS. He’s a potential Gold Glove-caliber center fielder on a team without a center fielder, so he could win a job out of camp, which puts trendy fantasy pick Jarren Duran in a really precarious spot. If Rafaela doesn’t make the team out of camp, he’ll likely be up very soon and could provide 30 stolen base upside for fantasy managers.
James Wood - OF, Nationals
21-year-old James Wood is crushing spring training, going 8-for-16 with three home runs, six walks, and three strikeouts. He’s only facing Double-A caliber pitching, but he struck out 34% of the time in 87 games at Double-A last year so that increased patience at the plate is great to see. We always knew he had power, but if he can get himself out less by chasing fewer bad pitches then we could see a breakout for Wood that lands him a mid-season call-up.
James Wood absolutely crushed his 3rd HR of the Spring!
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) February 29, 2024
111.6 mph (Wood's Spring Max EV)
21°
411 ftpic.twitter.com/hGATSOEcjR
He also could debut later than his teammate Robert Hassell III, who is a forgotten man after coming over in the Juan Soto trade in 2022. Hassell III also struck out too much in Double-A last year, but he’s hitting 5-for-11 with a home run, two steals, two walks, and three strikeouts in spring training. He’s just 22 years old, was the eighth overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and was electric in High-A for San Diego in 2022. The Nationals could give us a Wood, Hassell III, Dylan Crews outfield by August/September and we’d all love to see it.
Masyn Winn - SS, Cardinals
Winn is running wild, stealing three bases in four games so far this spring, while going 4-for-10 at the dish. Winn is going to start at short for the Cardinals, so he could be a steals asset with a full season. He stole just 17 bases in 105 games at Triple-A last year, but he had swiped 43 bases in 119 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2022, so he could push for 20-25 steals in 2024.
Anthony Rizzo - 1B, Yankees
Let’s end by talking about an old dude. Rizzo has come into camp fully cleared from the concussion symptoms that he tried to play through last year. He said he feels great, and he’s hitting 4-for-9 with two home runs, seven RBI, and a 2:4 K:BB rate in his five games. He’s a value based on where he’s going right now in drafts as the starting first baseman in New York.