The second half starts tomorrow and our fantasy baseball team has you covered with some hot-button questions that can help you win your league over the next few months.
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Who can be this year’s Nolan Jones?
Jorge Montanez: An overlooked prospect that can go on an incredible run, legit or not, providing power and speed in the second half? We’re looking for someone who hits the ball hard enough to mask some flaws at the plate. I’ll take one of my preseason favorites that has disappointed up until this month with Lawrence Butler out of Oakland, who hit seven of his nine homers in July, including three in the final game before the break.
James Schiano: Jo Adell, baby. We’re looking to catch lightning in a bottle if we want to find the next Nolan Jones. We need loud physical tools, ample playing time, and shouldn’t be afraid of glaring flaws in their profile. Adell has top of the line bat speed and sprint speed, an 83rd percentile Barrel Rate, will play nearly every day, and is showing the best plate discipline of his career. In fact, he has a 93rd percentile SEAGER so far this season, meaning he is laying off the pitches he should lay off and swinging at the ones he should swing at. Contact rate remains an issue, but there are plenty of reasons why Adell can catch fire over the next few months.
Which struggling veteran will have the best second half?
Eric Samulski: Taylor Ward is 30, so he counts as a veteran. He started out the season hot, but has gone into a major tailspin; yet, I think the quality of contact and plate discipline has been good. He is 27th in baseball in barrel rate among qualified hitters since May 22nd with a 14% barrel rate. Over that same stretch he has just an 18% chase rate and a 10% swinging strike rate so I don’t think that near 30% strikeout rate will stand. He’s just not making bad decisions on his swings. He’s also making great contact when he does make contact while still walking 14% of the time, so I think he’s going to turn it around. Perhaps on a new team too.
Jorge Montanez: I’m going to bet on Matt Olson turning things around in the second half. While he’s striking out a bit more than he has over the last couple of seasons, his contact rates are right in line with where they’ve been in recent years. And he’s still capable of hitting the ball harder than most in the league. I’m buying low.
Who will wind up as the most valuable injury stash?
James Schiano: It’s a bit of a cop-out pick because he was only injured a short time, but the answer is Blake Snell. He had his best start of the season just before the break and went back to his tried-and-true approach with fastballs high and curveballs low. Skipping spring training is hard on a pitcher and I’ll bet Snell finally has his sea legs under him.
Jorge Montanez: Gerrit Cole is my pick here. Understandably, Cole has struggled a bit through his first five starts after missing most of the first three months of the season. He ended the first half on a good note with his best outing against the Orioles as his velocity has steadily ticked up.
Eric Samulski: Well, I hope it’s Devin Williams because I’ve been stashing him a few places most of the season. He looked great in his rehab outing, and the Brewers are surprisingly competitive, so we could be in for a great second half from Williams and his “airbender.”
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Which player in the Top-50 is in the most danger of serious regression?
Jorge Montanez: Brent Rooker has probably played the best half-season of baseball he will in his career, slugging 21 homers while hitting .291. But it’s incredibly unlikely he’ll maintain a .390 BABIP. And he’s still striking out in roughly a third of his plate appearances.
James Schiano: Luis Gil will not be a top-50 player in the second half. I talked about him yesterday in a piece about pitchers who could have innings limits and Gil is one of the most obvious candidates. He threw fewer than 30 innings over the last two season while recovering from Tommy John surgery and has shown signs of fatigue over the last six weeks. He could still be effective, but there’s little chance the Yankees lean on him as much as they did in the first half.
Eric Samulski: If we’re going by top-50 overall players on FanGraphs player rater then I think the answer is Brent Rooker, who’s currently 24th. Since June 1st, Rooker has the ninth-highest strikeout rate in baseball among qualified hitters at 31.2%. He’s hitting .306 over that stretch but no other hitter in the top-15 is hitting higher than .241, which makes Rooker’s average a MAJOR outlier. He has just a 69% overall contact rate over that stretch, and we know he has major swing-and-miss in his game. The power will still be there, but I think the average is going to take a major hit.
Who’s a reliever with fewer than five saves right now that can take over their team’s closer role?
Eric Samulski: Ben Joyce. Carlos Estevez is almost certainly being traded, and Ben Joyce has looked great since adding in the sinker. It gives him a pitch he can command for strikes, and I think has given him the confidence to attack with the rest of his arsenal.
Jorge Montanez: James McArthur has operated as the Royals’ closer this season, but it seems it’s mostly been due to a lack of better options. While he’s performed well enough, you don’t typically see closers with a strikeout rate under 20 percent holding their job very long. I can see Hunter Harvey, acquired from the Nationals, taking over sometime in the second half.
James Schiano: Going purely on stuff relative to competition, Hunter Bigge of the Cubs. Bigge has the exact repertoire desired from a late inning reliever: a 98 MPH fastball with great vertical movement and a wipe out slider that sits in the upper 80s. He got his first taste of the big leagues last week and was solid albeit wild and could have an opportunity as the Cubs likely sell any relievers they can before the trade deadline.
Who’s a player drafted outside the first round this season that can elevate themselves into the first round next year?
Jorge Montanez: This is probably the most obvious answer, and there can only be so many first-round picks, but it has to be Gunnar Henderson, who’s on track to go 40/20 with an excellent batting average.
James Schiano: Paul Skenes! Since he debuted on May 11th he has the lowest SIERA, second-lowest ERA, third-lowest WHIP, second-highest K-BB%, and second-most quality starts of any pitcher in baseball. There’s a reasonable chance he’ll be the first pitcher taken in drafts next year.
Eric Samulski: People will say Elly De La Cruz, but I think Gunnar Henderson is the easy answer. He has good enough speed to steal 20+ bases, which gives him tremendous five-category upside when you consider his 40+ home run power and current .286 batting average. He has just a 10% swinging strike rate and doesn’t chase out of the zone. I love his approach and his overall skill set. He’s a stud.