Early in the season, I took my first crack at doing Top 100 starting pitcher rankings and it ballooned into a Top 150 by the time the regular season was set to get underway. The process of continuously updating it and writing my reasoning behind the rankings was so time-consuming and anxiety-inducing that I decided not to do it during the regular season; however, I opted to complete one more list as we head into the All-Star break.
Below you’ll find my Top 100 starting pitchers for the rest of the season. As with my pre-season rankings, these are geared more towards 12-team leagues, so you’ll see some “safe” but “low-floor” options ranked lower than you might see them in deeper formats since their safety is less important in 12-team leagues where there are always plenty of viable options on the wire. I also tried to keep to players who I believe will have ample fantasy value from here on out. That means some injured pitchers made it on here and some didn’t if I wasn’t sure they would throw enough innings to really help you out (hello, Clayton Kershaw). We may also see prospects like Cade Horton get the call in the summer, but considering nobody is a surefire lock to be called up, you won’t find any prospects on my Top 100 from here.
Since I really did want to keep it at 100, there were some hard cuts, but, hopefully, this gives you a sense of who I’m interested in rostering. Given that I will discuss over one hundred pitchers, you’ll find short blurbs with my thoughts “off the dome” for these guys but I’ll try not to be long-winded.
We don’t need to talk too much about these guys. They’re all elite. You can split hairs about who is the most elite, but they have all been among the best pitchers in baseball when they’ve been on the mound this season. You may have some concerns about how many second-half innings Tyler Glasnow, Chris Sale, and Tarik Skubal will throw, but you’re just speculating that there will be an injury or a shutdown, and I’m not going to drop them in the rankings for something that isn’t currently real. The Dodgers have said Glasnow may only miss one start with his back inflammation, and while they may hold him to five-inning stints from here on out, that’s not enough for me to knock him out of the first tier given how good he’s been.
I know Zack Wheeler‘s SIERA and K-BB% aren’t as high as some of these guys, but if you asked me to pick one starter who could produce an elite fantasy outing no matter who he faces, it would probably be Wheeler. I just trust him more than any of the other guys.
My second choice for that start would probably be Paul Skenes. He’s so darn good. The issue is that we know the Pirates are going to watch his innings, and there’s a chance they’ll shut him down early if/when they’re out of playoff contention. That’s the only knock, and it’s the same one facing Garrett Crochet, who has thrown just six innings COMBINED over his last two starts as the White Sox monitor his innings. Will he be traded? Hopefully, but where does he land? If he’s not traded, Chicago is going to keep doing this to his innings and sap his value. It makes him a little risky.
People seem to think Cole Ragans hasn’t been elite this year, but he has a 3.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.30 SIERA, and 21.6% K-BB%. The Royals are legitimately a good team, and he’s legitimately a good pitcher. Also, Max Fried is very good and so are the Braves. These guys are all fantasy aces just with a few more question marks than the top five.
I only had Gerrit Cole ranked as low as I did early in the year because of the injury. His last start against Baltimore looked more like himself; yet, I still need to see more consistency from him before I remove any doubts that there is some lingering issue from the injury. He’s still a top-10 starter here, but I’m just not sure we’ll see the consistent ace-level performances we’re used to which would normally warrant him being in tier one.
This tier also has three Mariners pitchers. I was higher on Luis Castillo coming into the year, and maybe I’ve dropped him down a bit too much, but I just think George Kirby is the safer bet right now. We’re seeing a bit more strikeout upside from Kirby, which is great to see. Logan Gilbert has vaulted into this tier as well, but I just can’t put him above his teammates.
Joe Ryan was a riser for me in spring training, and he’s had a great season with a much deeper pitch mix than we’re used to seeing. It has raised his floor considerably and made him a much safer fantasy pitcher. Kind of like how the deep pitch mix has made Sonny Gray far more reliable. He has a tremendous feel for his breaking balls and can mix and match in myriad ways depending on the opponent or what feels good that day, etc.
This is a whole tier of players with ace potential who struggle with consistency enough that you’re probably happiest with them as an elite SP2 on your team.
I want to rank Pablo Lopez higher. I was a big believer in him coming into the season, and the underlying data tells me he’s still elite. He has the 10th-best SIERA in all of baseball at 3.20. He has a strong 22.6% K-BB%, a good team behind him, and his Pitcher List overall PLV grade (which takes into account pitch shape/movement and also location) is 5.31 which is 60th in baseball for anybody who has thrown at least 300 pitches this season, including relievers. However, his feel for his change-up continues to come and go, and we can’t ignore the results on the field. I think he’ll be in for a big second half, but I just can’t rank him higher.
I could say the same about Freddy Peralta, who continues to struggle with his command, particularly of his fastball, which leads to too much contact in certain starts, and Shota Imanaga, who lost his four-seam shape for a few starts but appears to have recaptured it again. Grayson Rodriguez also feels too hittable despite his strong stuff. He has a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.88 ERA on the year, and I think his fastball is the culprit, but he’s still pretty darn good.
Dylan Cease and Jack Flaherty have been elite and should be in the tier above based on results, but their success feels less reliable. Flaherty is third amongst starting pitchers in SIERA with a 2.63 mark while Cease is 8th at 3.09. Flaherty is also third in K-BB% with 27.8% while Cease is 8th at 24.2%. Flaherty is ninth in WHIP at 0.98 but Cease is pretty good too, ranking 23rd with a 1.08 WHIP. These guys are missing bats and they’re not giving up tons of free bases, so we love to see that but we also haven’t seen consistent success from them in years, so can this maintain? I don’t know.
Justin Steele is good and has been good, and Tanner Bibee has taken a real step forward with his improved four-seam fastball and increased use of the curve. I was a bit skeptical about him coming into the year, but I support the changes he made to his pitch shape and pitch mix and I’m a believer in him as a top-25 pitcher. Same for Tanner Houck, who didn’t need to add a new pitch to combat lefties, but needed to take his command to another level. He’s talked a lot about changing his routine with Andrew Bailey and modifying his delivery, and all of that has led to significantly better command, which has made his splitter even more deadly. What Houck has given us in the first half is mostly legit.
Michael King has also been really good, giving up just one run per start in four of his last five. In fact, since May 25th, he’s given up more than one earned run in two of nine starts, posting a 2.34 ERA and 30.2% strikeout rate. I originally had him in the next tier but decided that I had to rank him higher based on what I think we could get in the second half of this season.
Except for Seth Lugo, these guys felt “safe” heading into this season, but it turns out that, while they’re good pitchers, their upside is just not as good as the pitchers in the tier above them.
I’m not entirely sure Zac Gallen is pitching at 100% after the amount of innings he threw last year. He is still good, but he’s been inconsistent with the command of his secondaries and he really needs the location of all of his pitches to be on if he’s going to have the level of success we’ve seen in the past. Logan Webb also just doesn’t seem as “safe” as we thought he was heading into the year. He hasn’t been bad by any stretch, but he gives up a decent amount of contact so if his locations aren’t precise, he can give up a fair share of hits and post some mediocre outings. He’s just a rock-solid SP2 at this point.
Bailey Ober has had some poor starts that make you question how good he is, but the overall statline is solid. He’s 26th among starting pitchers with a 3.55 SIERA, is tied for 22nd with a 1.08 WHIP, and is 19th with a 20.5% K-BB%. I know the 4.14 ERA is not as exciting, but this is a dude who is pitching better than that and has a strong approach with his 3.5 pitch mix that leads to good results more often than not.
Nathan Eovaldi has only two starts all season where he’s allowed more than two runs, but we’ve already seen one trip to the IL and he’s always at risk of more. For now, the fastball velocity is there and the secondaries look good.
Seth Lugo is pitching above his head, but he also has a deep arsenal and a tremendous feel for all of his pitches. Maybe he doesn’t have the track record of the other names in this tier, but he deserves to be with them based on results and my belief that he can keep it up.
This whole tier is filled with pitchers who had solid first halves but the projections and/or SIERA are not believers. However, at some point, we have to trust the results. Luis Gil just had a tremendous last start as well but has also battled command issues this season and is well beyond his innings limit. Can he maintain his level of success as he starts to tire? I honestly don’t know what to say about Ronel Blanco. I didn’t know who he was and I didn’t think he could keep this up, but he has. The changeup and slider both flash plus at times and that’s good enough to get him through almost every start. It’s kind of the opposite of Kutter Crawford, who doesn’t have one “stand out” pitch but has a really deep arsenal of good pitches and is often able to mix and match enough to dance through lineups. He had some stumbles against some elite offenses, but he’s been really solid all season and will continue to be.
Taj Bradley may have finally settled on an approach, keeping his fastballs up and using splitters low in the zone. Since he doesn’t have pinpoint command, this is a tremendous approach for him because a splitter doesn’t need to be perfectly spotted. As long as he keeps hitters’ eyes up with the fastball up in the zone, then the splitters low will keep missing bats. When he gets that cutter over the plate too, he shows legit upside. I’m admittedly skeptical he can keep this up because his command has always been so iffy, but over his last seven starts he has a 1.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 32% K%, and 14.3% swinging strike rate, so...yeah.
This is another tier of pitchers who have flashed the upside to be low-end SP1s or high-end SP2s but there remain pretty major question marks.
The obvious question marks for Kodai Senga and Bryan Woo are health. Senga is close to a return, but could we just get one month of stellar results like Bradish and then an injury? Bryan Woo continues to look great when he pitches, but he has battled elbow inflammation or tenderness or tightness multiple times this season. It doesn’t make you feel great.
Blake Snell has been a top-10 pitcher before but has struggled this year, pitching terribly to start the season. Yet, after a trip to the IL, Snell has allowed just two hits in his last 12 innings while striking out 11. We saw him go on an absolute tear last year after a tough start, so we know he’s capable of doing it again, and I’m down to take the risk at this level.
Ryan Pepiot is my pick for a huge second half. The fastball looks great and has been upstairs consistently while the changeup and slider have stayed low and in the zone. I think this is a mix that works for him and if that command irons out a bit, the sky is the limit. I also think we continue to turn our noses up at MacKenzie Gore despite him ranking 38th among starters with a 3.70 SIERA and 31st with an 18.2% K-BB%. He gives up far too many hits and his fastball velocity has been declining of late which are legitimate concerns, but a .362 BABIP in the first half will likely come down. He has a solid five-pitch arsenal and does a good job of keeping the fastball up and secondaries down. Just like Pepiot, if the command improves, we’ll see a breakthrough.
These are all pitchers with clear upside, some of whom have even flashed near-ace upside even this season, but they also possess tons of question marks. Will Yusei Kikuchi keep relying on the slider? Can Shane Baz flash that 2022 form? Can Hunter Greene survive his ballpark and limited pitch mix? Will Reese Olson ever win a game? How long can Reynaldo Lopez keep this up? He has always enticed us with plus stuff but has never put a full season together. Given the Braves’ organizational skills, maybe they’re onto something. We have seen at least three walks in three of the last four starts, so there are some concerns about fatigue there.
Also, for all the talk of Hunter Brown’s resurgence, his last two starts have not been great. He was lit up by the Twins, and then his command was super shaky against the Rangers. He didn’t allow too much damage in that final start but just a 43% zone rate overall is not what you want to see. I had planned to rank him higher coming into this, but we know how mercurial he is and so seeing those two poor starts made me think that Brown’s “fix” may not be as locked in as we thought.
I like both Phillies’ arms, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, and they will each have stretches where they look 2-3 tiers better than this. We saw it from Suarez early in the season and people were demanding he be treated like a top 20 arm, but he had gone on a tear like that before, so we knew it would settle. They’re both arms you’re happy to have on your team but a bad start here and there in that park are going to come.
These are all former aces who may no longer be aces anymore.
Perhaps Kevin Gausman is dealing with residual shoulder issues from the pre-season, but his splitter is not getting the whiffs it used to and that has caused him to rely on his four-seamer way more than you want. It’s not good, and I’m not sure I see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Carlos Rodon’s fastball is getting pounded and his own pitching coach has given interviews suggesting that Rodon needed to change his approach because hitters can tee off on velocity now. Rodon has FINALLY started to pitch backward a bit, but it took him way too long to change his approach, and I’m just not sure what his upside will be if his fastball is no longer missing as many bats. I think it’s also clear that Max Scherzer is not the version we’ve come to know over the years. Unlike Rodon, he tried to adapt quickly, adding more pitches and being less reliant on his fastball; however, I’m just not sure he has the upside we’ve come to expect anymore.
I came into this year concerned that Framber Valdez gave up too much hard contact, but even I didn’t expect rough patches like this. His changeup and curve have not carried him the way we’re used to seeing, but it was nice to see the slider come back a bit at times. His sinker gets hit hard, so he needs at least two of those secondaries to be rocking if we’re going to get old Framber back. We also have no idea if we’re getting old Robbie Ray back following Tommy John, but he’s a talented pitcher in a good home park, so I’m taking my chances.
There’s some goodness, some intrigue, some shimmer in each of these pitchers, but their overall value remains murky.
Jake Irvin has had a tremendous first half with a 3.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but his SIERA is just 4.01 and he has a 15% K-BB% that puts him in the company of guys like Ben Lively and Chris Paddack. However, I do like Irvin’s approach with a plus curveball and three variations of fastball that he uses to keep hitters off-balance. Maybe he belongs in the next tier, but he’s been pitching really well for most of the season, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Lefties Nick Lodolo and Nestor Cortes have flashed at times this year, but they have remained inconsistent. Lodolo can never seem to stay healthy, and this command has kind of left him at times. I think Cortes was pitching a bit over his head in his elite stretches before, but he’s a rock-solid starter on a good team.
I’m not sure what version of Gavin Williams we’re going to get as he pitches through his elbow injury. His four-seam fastball has seemed to get better in his starts since coming off the IL, but the slider is a bit all over the place. The velocity is fluctuating and he seems like he’s not getting much depth on it. He still has a solid curve, but I just have some questions about health and performance. Bryce Miller still needs to find any consistent secondary pitch to complement his plus fastball. Until he does, I can’t move him much higher.
Man was I wrong on Zach Eflin. I really thought what we saw last year was just the Rays being able to extract the talent we always saw lurking in Eflin, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. He’s fine, and he won’t hurt you and is probably somebody you hold on your roster in 12-team leagues all year, unlike a tier we’ll see later, but he’s not a must-start against the best lineups. The same is true for Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Mitch Keller. They’re solid arms; you’ll start them against most teams and probably won’t cut them, but you’ll certainly think about cutting them or trading them away more than once. Bassitt and Berrios could also see some value shift depending on what Toronto decides to do at the deadline.
These are young pitchers who have all flashed potential but have some major question marks heading into the second half. If those questions are answered, they become must-roster pitchers in 12-team leagues; however, they could all be off of rosters by August as well.
Gavin Stone has emerged onto the fantasy scene this year with a revamped arsenal that has led to a 3.26 ERA, but how long is his leash? His 4.32 SIERA and poor 12% K-BB% suggest that he’s not really pitching as well as his surface-level stats. His 5.03 overall PLV grade is below average and puts him around Graham Ashcraft and Joey Estes. If Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto all return healthy in August or September (Glasnow will be much sooner obviously) then does Stone move to the bullpen? You ride him while he’s pitching well now, but I’m not sure this lasts.
Similarly, Christian Scott seems like he’ll have a long leash in the second half of the season, but the Mets were obviously concerned about his innings enough to send him to the minors and let Adrian Houser back into the rotation. Gross. The Mets are in playoff contention now, so they’ll likely make a run with Scott in the rotation, but what happens if they fall out? What if they decide to trade for a starting pitcher? Who loses their rotation spot when Kodai Senga is back? Plus, Scott’s 5.08 PLV grade is also below average and he has a sub-20% strikeout rate in the big leagues which is a bit of a concern.
Brayan Bello has seen a real step forward in his slider, which helped him strike out 11 against the A’s, but his changeup has faltered a bit, and he can’t seem to find consistency with his former best pitch. If he can recapture the changeup while keeping his improved slider then he’s going to soar up these rankings, but if he keeps struggling with consistency he’ll be tough to hold. I also love what we’ve seen from Luis L. Ortiz so far this season, he was a former top 100 prospect, but he’s made just four starts this year. Can he keep up this level of performance as a full-time starter? Will the Pirates keep him in the rotation? I covered him more in-depth in this Mixing It Up article, so check it out, but I have my concerns about his role.
These are the pitchers Nick Pollack lovingly refers to as “Toby’s.” You’re not mad about having any of these guys on your roster, but you likely aren’t holding them for the entire season in 12-team leagues, so they shuffle on and off your roster when they’re pitching well or not.
Matt Waldron went on a torrid stretch, but we talked about how knuckleballers are volatile and he’s been less impactful of late. He has a deep arsenal of pitches but none other than the knuckleball are particularly good. Jameson Taillon and Erick Fedde have both been really solid this year and are on the trade block. A trade to better teams or pitchers’ parks could be interesting if it increases win chances or helps prevent home runs, etc.
I also know Andrew Heaney is pitching well right now, but we’ve seen this from him before. The same goes for Brady Singer. I don’t dislike either of them, but I don’t think we’re seeing anything new to make me move them out of this range.
These guys are all currently injured or have question marks to return, so I have to rank them this low, but they have the upside to be in the top three tiers.
Jared Jones should return by early August and this IL stint will likely mean the Pirates won’t have to shut him down to limit innings, but will he be as impactful when he’s back? You’re also still going to miss 2-3 more turns in the rotation. Bobby Miller has to still be hurt. His fastball velocity is down a bit, his command is a mess, and he simply doesn’t look like the pitcher we saw last year. However, if he can rest/recover, we could still have an electric final 4-6 starts and that’s worth having. I think his teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto won’t return until September, and the Dodgers will be careful with him in the lead-up to the playoffs, so there’s an argument he should be off this list.
The Yu Darvish situation is impossible to predict. He’s away from the team tending to a personal matter and there’s no indication of when he’ll return. You hope he and his family are OK, but we might not get any starts the rest of the way. I still believe in the talent of his teammate, Joe Musgrove, and think we’ll get some good starts from him in August when he returns.
This tier is filled with pitchers who have battled inconsistency but flashed 12-team upside. Jose Soriano may have the best resume of the bunch with a 3.65 ERA supported by a 3.96 SIERA. I like his pitch mix with the two breaking balls, but he needs to figure out his sinker/four-seam mix, and his 11.3% K-BB% lowers his fantasy ceiling a bit. Brandon Pfaadt has also flashed some upside this season, and I loved him bringing his curveball in a few starts ago, but he ditched it the next start. He may have a 3.82 SIERA and a 16.7% K-BB%, but his splits against lefties have gotten WORSE this season, making him incredibly volatile. His teammate Ryne Nelson has been particularly good of late, giving up more than three runs just once in his last six starts. The strikeouts just haven’t been there.
It’s hard to deny Mitchell Parker’s solid first half, but he doesn’t miss a ton of bats and SIERA is not fully sold on him. He has three secondaries but you’re never sure which one he’ll use or which one will be good on a given day and that’s an issue. Edward Cabrera is all stuff but continues to battle command issues; however, the Marlins will give him a shot to sort it out, and Drew Thorpe has a solid changeup with a good enough cutter to back it up but I’m not sure there’s a real plus pitch aside from the changeup, which will always keep his ceiling low.
Spencer Schwellenbach may be the best of this bunch as a long-term bet, but the Braves also seem like a lock to add a pitcher at the deadline, so can he keep his spot in the rotation? Is he just a command pitcher without truly elite stuff? I wrote about him in detail here.
All of these guys are pitching worse than the names you’ll see in the next tier and none of them are currently in an MLB rotation, but I see a clear path for them to be much better pitchers in the second half. Some of it is clearly health. We know Merrill Kelly will be back this year, but we don’t know when which clouds his future. Same goes for Walker Buehler, who is weirdly “working on things” with outside help while rehabbing an injury after he got hit by a comebacker. He wasn’t great when he was healthy, but maybe this extra work will help and the team context is great. Jeffrey Springs should be back pretty soon after the All-Star Break but what will his role be? Tyler Mahle is up to three innings in his rehab stints, so he might have another three starts before he comes back up and joins the Rangers’ rotation, provided they can remain in the hunt.
We should also see Max Meyer any day now, but I thought that a month ago as well, so I have no idea. If I knew he would be up in a week or two, I’d rank him higher. The same goes for Reid Detmers, who has some kinks to work out, but is getting tons of strikeouts in Triple-A and deserves to be in the starting rotation.
Obviously, I didn’t have any of these pitchers ranked heading into the season other than Luis Severino and while his early performance was nice to see, he has not gotten back the fastball we saw two years ago which has led to just a 9.9% swinging strike rate and an overall underwhelming profile. I also do like Dean Kremer and would have him ranked higher if this was a 15-team league, but I don’t think he has the upside to be held on rosters all season long in 12-team formats.
The rest are all pitchers I didn’t even rank in the pre-season, so I have my level of concern about their ability to keep up the performance for the remainder of the season. I broke down Tobias Myers in detail in this version of Mixing It Up, so you can read that for my full thoughts on him and his long-term success. I’m not sure Albert Suarez will keep his rotation spot after the deadline, and the same goes for Ben Lively, who has been great for the Guardians but was signed as a swingman and could maybe move into that role if the Guardians add a pitcher at the deadline.
Simeon Woods-Richardson is the most interesting name here, but his 3.51 ERA is not supported by his 4.22 SIERA and he has a 13.8% K-BB% which basically puts him in Spencer Arrighetti and Tobias Myers territory. Perhaps you can make the argument that he belongs up in that Drew Thorpe tier, and I wouldn’t push back on that idea too much, but I just don’t think he has the fantasy upside that those arms do.