The MLB offseason has kicked into full gear with free agency and the Rule 5 draft, so I felt like it was time to take stock of what happened in 2024 and see what lessons we can learn for 2025. In order to do that, we’re going to go position by position to break down the overall landscape and help find the best pockets of value.
Similar to last year, when I wrote my State of the Union for each position, I’m going to look at the value produced in 2024 by regular starters at each position to see where the most value is coming from each position and identify areas of strength that we can target in our drafts and areas of weakness that we can try and avoid. Last year, much of my analysis was based on the impact of the new rule changes, so this year we’ll just look at the overall landscape and see how much carried over.
Table of Contents
- 2024 Player Rater Review
- 2024 Roto Category Review
- Key Takeaways
- Off-season storylines
- My top 15 rankings at the position for 2025
We’ll start with first base. To get a quick sense of the position, I looked at how many first basemen earned $10 in value according to the Fangraphs Player Rater.
A glance at the players who fell off the list suggests that age and flukely 2023 seasons play a key role here. Paul Goldschmidt and Justin Turner produced double-digit value in 2023 but did not in 2024 as they near the end of their careers. Yandy Diaz, Spencer Torkelson, and Isaac Paredes all came down from strong 2023 seasons and fell off the list, which means that the repeat first basemen were: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Salvador Perez, Bryce Harper, Josh Naylor, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Cody Bellinger, and Christian Walker. You’ll see those eight names a lot in the rest of this article.
Category Breakdown
Now we’ll see what value the first base position provided in each standard category in a Roto 5x5 league. I sorted by players who accumulated 300 plate appearances and looked to see if there was any meaningful change in the standard 5x5 offensive categories (batting average, home runs, runs, RBI, and steals). I did this for 2022 and 2023 last year, so we’ll compare those numbers and then dive into WHAT changed, WHY it may have happened, and HOW it should impact our 2025 draft plan.
Batting Average
Right off the bat, we’re seeing a stat where first base production dipped from 2023. You’re not usually counting on your first baseman to carry your team’s batting average, so the slight dip isn’t overly concerning. The league average for first basemen in 2024 was .244 which was better than the league average for second baseman, third basemen, and outfielders. The top 15 first basemen, so the players we’re most likely starting at the position in most league types, had an average, well, average of .256, so you should be able to find a first baseman in any league type that won’t torpedo your batting average, even if there is a slight dip from previous years.
Home Runs
Another stat where we’re seeing a bit of regression from 2023. Again, not a huge dip but a noteworthy one because power was down across the league in 2024. In 2023, two first basemen hit over 40 home runs and four hit 30 or more. In 2024, not a single first baseman hit over 35 home runs, but four that hit 30. While this is still a position where you can get consistent power production, it does seem that the number of players putting up category-changing power consistently is dwindling.
In fact, the only players to hit at least 25 home runs in 2023 and 2024 were Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Christian Walker, Pete Alonso, and Matt Olson. Jake Burger did it as well, even though he didn’t qualify at first base in 2023, but that’s it. Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt fell just short with 22 home runs in 2024, so just five guys have produced consistent high-end power in the last two seasons.
As a result, if you’re drafting at first base primarily for power, you are looking to snag one of those five bats or admitting that we’re picking out of a cluster that will likely include a lot of 17-25 home run guys, so the differentiating factors may wind up being speed or team context.
RBI
Oh, hey, another stat where first basemen produced less value in 2024 than in 2023. While Alec Bohm is one player who lost first base eligibility but still had
over 70 RBI, Jake Burger gained eligibility and surpassed that number, so those eligibilities offset one another. The real culprit here may, again, be age. Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Abreu, Carlos Santana, and Justin Turner all surpassed this number in 2023 but did not repeat that in 2024. We also had career years from Spencer Torkelson, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Drury, and Nathaniel Lowe in 2023 that were not duplicated in 2024.
This is yet another stat where the high-end production didn’t carry over this year. In 2023, the ten first basemen with the most RBIs averaged 103.7 RBI. In 2024, the ten first basemen with the most RBIs averaged 95. That’s not an insignificant drop-off. We also had six hitters repeat in the top ten at the position in RBI: Matt Olson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Christian Walker, and Josh Naylor but of that group, only Vlad Jr. and Naylor had more RBIs in 2024.
Runs
By now you’re seeing a trend. We don’t usually associate runs with first basemen, but most of them usually hit in the top four of their team’s batting order, so they can certainly accumulate runs if they get on base enough. That’s a big reason why Pete Alonso, Bryce Harper, Josh Naylor, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Christian Walker were all in the top ten at the position in runs scored this year. All of them, except Naylor and Harper, who was hurt, did so in 2023.
Stolen Bases
Another category where you’re not typically looking for production from your first basemen, but another category where the overall production fell in 2024. Even more interesting to me is the fact that none of the players who put up over 10 steals in 2024 are players you likely want as your starting first baseman in fantasy for 2025. They were: Spencer Steer, Jake Bauers, Paul Goldschmidt, Luke Raley, Michael Toglia, and Nolan Schanuel.
Of that group, only Steer is somebody who is a locked-in starter in all fantasy baseball formats, but you’re likely using him at another position. Toglia does have some power and plays in Coors Field, so the added speed is intriguing if he could ever hit higher than .220. Schanuel doesn’t have much power, but he is a solid contact hitter with a good on-base percentage, so he becomes more valuable in OBP leagues. Goldschmidt might still have value entering his age-37 season but you’d likely rather he be a corner infield option for you and where he plays in 2025 could determine his value.
Key Takeaways
The biggest takeaway for me is that first base seems more top-heavy than we’ve been used to in the past. Coming into 2024, there was a common narrative that the position was really deep and you could wait on drafting your first baseman and pick from several options. However, that didn’t bear out. Some of the trendy targets, like Triston Casas and Vinnie Pasquantino, got hurt and others, like Spencer Torkelson and Yandy Diaz, weren’t able to carry over their production; yet, whichever way you slice it, it seems like the same names keep coming up near the top of the first base leaderboards and are likely to do so in 2025 again.
Now, unlike some of the other positions we’ll discuss, I don’t believe there is a “cliff” at first base. I think there are clear top-tier options and then there is a muddled group afterward that features plenty of solid options depending on the category you specifically want to target. There will be power options like Jake Burger or Rhys Hoskins and batting average values like Luis Arraez and Yandy Diaz.
So what this says to me is that I may want to target one of those top-tier first basemen, likely one who will produce high-end power value for me since I think power will be at a premium and then I can choose a corner infield target from one of the big pack that comes after.
Offseason Storylines
- Where will Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, and Paul Goldschmidt sign?
- Will the Blue Jays trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
- Will the Red Sox trade Triston Casas?
- How healthy are Freddie Freeman and Christian Encarnacion-Strand going into the season?
- Will the changes to the left field wall in Baltimore (again) now HELP Ryan Mountcastle?
- How much does Paul Goldschmidt have left?
Top 15 Fantasy First Basemen for 2025
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Toronto Blue Jays
- Bryce Harper - Philadelphia Phillies
- Freddie Freeman - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Pete Alonso - Free Agent (not likely impacted by new team)
- Matt Olson - Atlanta Braves
- Josh Naylor - Cleveland Guardians
- Spencer Steer - Cincinnati Reds
- Christian Walker - Free Agent (pending new team)
- Salvador Perez - Kansas City Royals
- Vinnie Pasquantino - Kansas City Royals
- Luis Arraez - San Diego Padres (I would likely never use him as my 1B)
- Cody Bellinger - Chicago Cubs
- Jake Burger - Miami Marlins
- Triston Casas - Boston Red Sox
- Michael Busch - Chicago Cubs/ Ryan Mountcastle - Baltimore Orioles
