Detroit Tigers
2024 record: 86-76
3rd place, AL Central
Team ERA: 3.61 (4th in MLB)
Team OPS: .685 (23rd in MLB)
What Went Right
On August 10th, the Tigers lost their third game in a row. Detroit was 6-12 in its last 18 games and 13.5 games back in the division with a 55-63 record. What followed was a finish to the season so spectacular that Tigers fans will never forget it. Detroit went 31-11 to clinch the franchise’s first playoff appearance since 2014 on the last Friday of the regular season. Manager A.J. Hinch described Detroit’s pitching strategy, which included only one established starting pitcher in Tarik Skubal (2.83 xFIP), entering the playoffs as “chaos.” The magic continued as the Tigers beat the Astros in the Wild Card series and took a 2-1 series lead over the Guardians in the Division series before the clock struck midnight on this Cinderella story. Skubal, the presumptive Cy Young award winner in the American League, and Riley Greene (135 wRC+) were the team’s two All-Star representatives. Kerry Carpenter (160 wRC+) was by far the Tigers best power hitter as he hit .282 with 18 home runs and a .303 ISO in 296 plate appearances. Parker Meadows (111 wRC+) was a revelation in the last two months of the season. He hit .296/.340/.500 with six home runs and five stolen bases over his last 47 games of the season and made some of the best plays of the year in centerfield. Jack Flaherty (2.60 xFIP) and Reese Olson (3.72 xFIP) gave the Tigers a solid top three starting pitchers in the first four months of the season before Flaherty was traded and Olson went down with a shoulder injury. The late season push was largely driven by a bullpen that featured Tyler Holton (2.19 ERA), Will Vest (2.82 ERA), Brant Hurter (2.58 ERA), Brenan Hanifee (1.84 ERA), and Sean Guenther (0.84 ERA).
What Went Wrong
The Tigers couldn’t score enough runs, which put too much pressure on their pitching staff and ultimately spelled the end of their magical run. Spencer Torkelson (92 wRC+) hit 31 home runs in 2023, but he spent almost two months of 2024 in the minors and hit just .219 with 10 home runs in 92 games. Javier Baez (43 wRC+) was the worst hitter in all of baseball who qualified for the batting title before he went down with an injury and didn’t play enough to qualify. Colt Keith (97 wRC+) got off to a slow start hitting .152 with no home runs in his first 30 games. Even when he got going, hitting .285 with a .144 ISO in his last 118 games, he didn’t hit for as much power as he did in the minor leagues. Like Keith, Wenceel Perez (95 wRC+) displayed a mature approach at the plate and had some clutch hits, but ultimately his numbers leave something to be desired. Veteran fillers Mark Canha (101 wRC+), Carson Kelly (108 wRC+) and Gio Urshela (76 wRC+) were all traded in July. Slick fielding shortstop Trey Sweeney (81 wRC+), who was acquired in the Flaherty trade, didn’t impress in his first 119 plate appearances in the majors. Casey Mize (4.04 xFIP) returned from injury, but might be a bigger bust as a former No. 1 overall pick than even Torkelson. Kenta Maeda (4.51 xFIP) was a disaster in the first year of a two-year free agent contract as he posted a 6.09 ERA and was booted from a rotation that had only one starting pitcher.
Fantasy Slants
**Parker Meadows was one of the best players in all of baseball in the last two months of the season, but he doesn’t even have to play that well again to be a fantasy stud. Meadows has more speed and power than he showed in 2024 when he had nine home runs and nine steals in 82 games. Meadows can fly and could have stolen a lot more bases. He stole 27 in 150 games between Triple-A and the majors in 2023. If he stays healthy, Meadows could have 30 stolen bases in 2025. He also finished the season batting leadoff against right-handed pitching, which only adds his value. Meadows hits lower in the order against left-handed pitching, but he’s not a zero against southpaws and won’t be platooned.
**Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter just need to stay healthy. Both have had trouble staying on the field. Carpenter won’t start against left-handed pitching, but could easily hit 30 home runs if he was healthy for a full season. Greene spent some time on the injured list, but still played 137 games, his first time playing over 100 games, and had 584 plate appearances. Greene hit .262 with 24 home runs, making him a better real-life player than fantasy stud.
**As we saw in 2024, investing in the Tigers’ closer can be a mistake. Alex Lange led the club in saves in 2023 and despite the team using other pitchers in the ninth inning for part of that season, Lange finished 2023 as the closer. Jason Foley (4.09 xFIP) started 2024 as the closer and essentially ran with the job while Lange suffered a season-ending injury. Foley went long stretches of the season without recording hardly any saves as the Tigers went into a slide and again used a committee approach even without Lange, but picked them up in bunches as the Tigers got hot towards the end of the year and finished with 28 saves. A.J. Hinch has made it clear over the past two seasons that he doesn’t care about anyone’s fantasy team. He’ll use his best relievers when the game is on the line whether that’s in the ninth inning or not. Foley benefitted from that in 2024, but it doesn’t guarantee that he will again. Unless the Tigers sign a bonafide closer in free agency, don’t expect Hinch to name a closer going into 2025. Foley can lose this job just as easily as he got it. In the playoffs, Hinch made it clear where Foley stands on the depth chart. He routinely prioritized Holton, Vest and even Beau Brieske over Foley in high leverage situations and essentially hid Foley from the Guardians in the Division series. Maybe the Tigers run it back with everyone in the same bullpen roles in 2025 and Foley gets 25 saves, but it’s not worth the risk that he could end up with less than 10 saves.
**The top pitching prospect in all of baseball, Jackson Jobe was called up at the end of the regular season and even pitched in the playoffs as a reliever. Jobe will go back to starting in 2025, of course. He was added to the 40-man roster so all he has to do is make the team to have an impact on fantasy teams in 2025. Jobe will have an innings limit, but with his stuff and the help of Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter, he could hit the ground sprinting next year.
**It was only 94 plate appearances and he needed a .380 BABIP to hit .241, but Jace Jung had a 16 percent walk percentage and .362 OBP in the majors. He also hit .257/.377/.454 in 415 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s a full season of getting on base at a good clip. Jung still has to adjust to hitting major league pitching and might not actually help fantasy teams in 2025, but he has nothing left to prove at Triple-A. The Tigers don’t really have a starting third baseman and could be willing to at least give Jung the chance to make that adjustment at the outset of next year. Justyn-Henry Malloy, who’s had at least a .400 OBP at nearly every minor league stop in his career, could be in a similar spot.
Key Free Agents
None
Team Needs
It’s no secret that the Tigers need offense and their lineup is loaded with left-handed hitters. Given the lack of an established third or first baseman on the roster, Detroit could be linked to right-handed free agent corner infielders like Alex Bregman, who was previously managed by Hinch in Houston, and Christian Walker this offseason. While Detroit’s payroll is essentially just Javier Baez’ contract, a big move like Bregman or Walker would signify a significant change in how the Tigers front office has operated since Scott Harris took over two years ago. In other words, I’m not counting on it. It’s more likely that the Tigers continue to bank on increased production and improvement from their young core since that approach netted them a playoff series win in only the second year of the Harris regime. Expect the Tigers to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason, though, and if Flaherty and Michael Lorenzen in 2023 are any indication, that pitcher could be a fantasy gem. Matthew Boyd could be an option to return as he was part of the organization as recently as 2023 and had a 2.72 ERA in eight starts for the Guardians last season.
