The Diamondbacks leap out of shadows on Friday evening to reportedly sign ace Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract, which includes an opt out following the 2026 season, after the Giants and Blue Jays seemingly balked at his contractual demands. The 30-year-old right-hander fills an obvious need for Arizona’s reeling pitching staff following a half-decade run as one of the most durable aces in baseball, recording a sparkling 2.88 ERA (3.01 FIP), 1.02 WHIP and 29 percent strikeout rate across 816 2/3 innings (134 starts) between the Brewers and Orioles since the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Let’s take a deeper dive into how Burnes impacts Arizona’s rotation mix and his immediate fantasy outlook at Chase Field.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in agreement on a six-year, $210 million contract, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 28, 2024
After a quiet winter, Arizona gets the best pitcher on the market. And Burnes gets to play for a dangerous NL West team. First on news: @JonHeyman.
How does Corbin Burnes’ arrival impact Arizona’s starting rotation?
Burnes provides Arizona’s starting rotation mix with a certifiable front-of-the-rotation ace after the club’s pitching staff allowed the fifth-most runs (4.86 per-game) last season and got just 72 starts combined between their veteran quartet comprised of Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly. According to multiple reports, the Diamondbacks are looking to move on from Montgomery, who struggled to a calamitous 6.23 ERA across 117 innings (25 appearances, 21 starts) last year in his Arizona debut, and seems like the most obvious trade candidate prior to spring training. The club also jettisoned some of its pitching depth earlier this month when it shipped former prospect Slade Cecconi to Cleveland as the centerpiece of the Josh Naylor trade. It goes without saying that Burnes’ arrival will make a significant impact for the Diamondbacks given his track record as a durable innings-eater to pair with former top prospect Brandon Pfaadt, who made a career-high 32 starts this past season.
Even with Montgomery potentially being subtracted from the picture, that doesn’t exactly leave a rotation spot for talented youngsters like Ryne Nelson, who posted a serviceable 4.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 126/34 K/BB ratio across 150 2/3 innings (28 appearances, 25 starts) last year during a mini-breakthrough season or Yilber Diaz, who showed some flashes in seven appearances (four starts) last year at the highest level. Nelson is most likely ticketed for a versatile swingman-type role but could still wind up making plenty of starts given the health question marks swirling around Gallen, Kelly and Rodriguez. He’s a name to monitor in deeper mixed leagues as he’s currently being selected just inside the top 400 picks (389th overall), on average, in early NFBC drafts.
How much does Chase Field alter Corbin Burnes’ fantasy outlook?
Here’s a slight oversimplification: Burnes is unlikely to be significantly impacted by the move to Chase Field, which ranks sixth out of 30 ballparks in Baseball Savant’s park factors over the last three years. It’s undoubtedly a more hitter-friendly offensive environment than the “Walltimore” era of Camden Yards that Burnes operated in last year, but it’s not like Milwaukee’s American Family Field was a pitcher’s paradise earlier in his career. Burnes won’t be completely immune to the high-octane offensive settings that come with the move to the NL West, but he’s done an excellent job in limiting hard contact (including home runs) over the past half-decade, which mitigates some of the immediate risk. Burnes remains a certifiable fantasy ace heading into the 2025 campaign, even if we bake in some slight pullback from a run-prevention standpoint.
The bigger concern from a long-term standpoint is whether he’ll wind up reversing a linear four-year decline in the strikeout department with the move to Arizona. After topping out at a whopping 36.7 percent during the shortened 2020 campaign, Burnes’ strikeout rate continued dipping to a league-average 23 percent mark during his lone season in Baltimore. A quick peek under the hood reveals that he’s generating fewer whiffs these days on his cutter and curveball than previous years, but it’s not exactly a cause for alarm since his previously elite control remains firmly intact. There’s also the possibility that Burnes actually fixed his cutter during the late stages of last year by adding a couple inches of additional horizontal break to the offering, which led to a surge in whiffs. There isn’t a huge margin for error here with Burnes moving forward, especially if his control starts to move in the wrong direction and he starts giving up more hard contact, but his continually declining strikeout rate isn’t a cause for total alarm just yet. It’s possible last September’s results weren’t a late-season mirage and he actually fixed his cutter. We’ll see.
Volume matters, especially from a fantasy standpoint, which is why Burnes’ extensive track record as a durable fantasy ace keeps him as an early-round selection in all fantasy formats, even as he starts to show some early warning signs of decline. The veteran stalwart is currently being selected in the third round (35th overall), on average, in early NFBC drafts and he’ll most likely wind up going off the board next spring as a borderline top seven starting pitcher in all fantasy formats in the same range as Logan Gilbert, Garrett Crochet, Chris Sale, George Kirby and Jacob deGrom.
