It seems the Athletics are actually intent on making moves and attempting to bolster their starting rotation as they move away from Oakland and begin their uncertain future in West Sacramento in 2025.
After signing right-hander Luis Severino to a two-year, $67 million contract last week, the A’s made a surprising move on the trade front on Saturday by acquiring left-hander Jeffrey Springs and minor league southpaw Jacob Lopez from the Rays for right-hander Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Will Simpson and Jacob Watters as well as a 2025 competitive balance round A pick.
The A's are finalizing a trade to acquire left-hander Jeffrey Springs from the Tampa Bay Rays, sources tell ESPN. Multiple players are going in both directions, but with the A's looking to spend, they get a rotation piece in Springs under club control for three more seasons.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 14, 2024
It’s an interesting deal for both teams so let’s take a look at the possible fantasy ramifications of Saturday’s swap.
What can the Athletics expect from Springs?
That’s a fascinating question. The 32-year-old southpaw has proven to be one of the best left-handers in all of baseball when he’s healthy. Since joining the Rays in 2021 he has registered a 2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 268/60 K/BB ratio over 229 innings. That’s awfully impressive.
He became a full-time starter in 2022 and vaulted to fantasy stardom by going 9-5 with a 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 135 1/3 innings. That pushed him way up fantasy draft boards heading into the 2023 season – and rightly so. He completely dominated in his first three starts of the 2023 season, allowing just one run (0.56 ERA) and eight baserunners (0.50 WHIP) over 16 frames while striking out a ridiculous 24 batters.
The problem is that he then suffered a major elbow injury and was forced to undergo Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery, costing him the remainder of the 2023 season and the bulk of the 2024 campaign as well.
Springs did finally make it back at the end of July in 2024. He ultimately made seven starts for the Rays, posting a 3.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and a 37/11 K/BB ratio over 33 innings. It’s not unusual for a pitcher to show some rust when coming back from Tommy John surgery, so while Springs didn’t show quite the level of dominance that he exhibited before the injury, it was encouraging to see that he was still very effective.
So when he’s healthy, the A’s should be trotting out one of the best left-handed starters in the American League.
Is Springs healthy though?
The big concern though is that he was shut down once again in early September due to elbow fatigue. While he had pitched well in his seven starts since returning from the injured list, Springs did exhibit a drop in velocity of almost two MPH from where he was prior to the surgery.
It’s possible that the Rays were simply being cautious with their prized left-hander, as they had fallen out of the playoff race and there was no real benefit to rushing him back into action. The elbow issue is at least mildly concerning though.
The Athletics obviously did their due diligence and wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on the deal without taking a look at his medicals, so they seem to feel confident that he’s healthy and is going to be a major contributor in their rotation for the 2025 season and beyond.
Is health the only concern?
The stability of Springs’ elbow is certainly a concern, but it’s not the only one that fantasy managers should incorporate into his valuation for the 2025 season.
The other concern, at least for his fantasy outlook in 2025, is his workload. Springs threw just 16 innings at the big league level before going under the knife in 2023. He then fired just 65 innings between the Rays and his rehab work in the minor leagues in 2024. Even when he was healthy, the largest workload that Springs ever shouldered was 135 1/3 innings during that magical 2022 campaign.
Springs isn’t a one-year rental for the Athletics, they are planning on him being a staple at the front of their rotation for the next several seasons. He’s under team control through the 2026 season and they also hold a $15 million ($750k buyout) on him for the 2027 season. Expect them to take the necessary precautions to protect his arm during the 2025 season. I’d be very surprised if he surpassed 150 innings during the upcoming season and would probably expect something closer to the 130 range. That doesn’t mean he can’t give you 130 innings of terrific production, just that the expectations in wins and strikeouts should be tempered due to the likely workload limitations.
How does this change the Athletics’ rotation?
Entering the offseason, the Athletics were projected to have one of the worst overall starting rotations in recent memory. Without a true ace, or anything resembling one, they were set to count on JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes to carry the load with J.T. Ginn, Osvaldo Bido and a cast of misfits fighting for the final two spots in the rotation. That plan didn’t seem conducive to winning many baseball games, and certainly not to competing for a spot in the postseason.
With the additions of Severino and Springs however, the A’s now feature a legitimate one-two punch at the top of their rotation, with Sears, Spence and Estes sliding back to round out the rotation. They are still lacking in quality depth for the group and any injuries are going to hit them extremely hard, but this group is much improved overall from where it was to begin the offseason.
What about Jacob Lopez, is he just a throw-in?
Not exactly. The 26-year-old southpaw was buried on a deep and talented depth chart with the Rays and moving to West Sacramento should at least give him an opportunity to contribute – both with the A’s and from a fantasy perspective.
Lopez spent most of the 2024 season at Triple-A Durham where he compiled a 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a 106/45 K/BB ratio over 88 2/3 innings in 21 appearances (19 starts). Athletics’ general manager David Forst already came out and said that Lopez will come into the organization as a starter, but that he could switch to the bullpen and fill a swingman role if needed.
He’s definitely a longshot to crack the A’s Opening Day rotation barring any injuries, but he has to be pretty high up on the list of guys that you’d expect to make starts at the big league level in 2025. In deep mixed league drafts and draft champions formats, he’s worthy of a flier in the final rounds of drafts for sure.
How about the Rays, how did they do in the deal?
The most interesting name joining the Rays, at least from an immediate fantasy perspective, is right-hander Joe Boyle. The 25-year-old hurler is routinely mentioned among those having the best pure stuff in all of baseball, his problem has always been his ability to harness it and throw consistent strikes.
If the Rays truly believe that they can cure what ails him and unlock his potential, then Boyle could wind up paying massive dividends. It’s unclear if their plan for him is to continue working as a starting pitcher or if they believe that he can pay immediate dividends out of the bullpen as a high-leverage reliever. Either way, it’ll be fascinating to see how this one plays out.
The Rays also landed the 36th overall pick in the 2025 draft in the deal, and probably value that selection as much or more than they do Boyle. That has no impact on fantasy leagues though.
In addition, the Rays picked up minor league first baseman Will Simpson in their return package. The 23-year-old was a 15th round selection from the 2023 draft class and hit .282/.378/.482 with 18 homers, 90 RBI, five stolen bases and a 135/76 K/BB ratio over 550 plate appearances in the minor leagues during the 2024 season – mostly at High-A Lansing.
He finished the season with an 18-game audition at Double-A Midland where he slashed an impressive .348/.408/.493 with a pair of long balls in 76 plate appearances. He’s likely ticketed for a return to the Double-A level to start the 2025 season and he’s behind a couple of top prospects in Xavier Isaac and Tre’ Morgan on the organizational depth chart at first base, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Rays tinker with moving him over to third base or to a corner outfield spot. It’s unlikely that he makes any impact in fantasy leagues in 2025.
Finally, the Rays also snagged minor league right-hander Jacob Watters in the deal. The 23-year-old hurler was a fourth-round selection by the Athletics from the 2022 draft class. He has struggled mightily in his minor league career to this point, most recently posting a 5.04 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a 56/28 K/BB ratio over 60 2/3 innings in 17 appearances (10 starts) at High-A Lansing in 2024. He can be ignored for fantasy purposes for the time being.
Great, so where should we be drafting Springs for 2025?
Prior to the news of the trade, Springs was sporting an average draft position right around pick-220 overall. That’s with all of the assumptions and concerns of an innings limit and his elbow injury already baked in.
I think if anything, the move away from the Rays and to the Athletics will cause his price to fall slightly. Here’s why.
For one, the Rays are an organization that is notoriously great at developing pitching and getting the most production out of their arms. They have pulled countless pitchers off of the scrap heap from different organizations, tweaked them and made them viable fantasy contributors. We have no idea how Springs is going to perform away from the Rays and their tutelage.
More importantly though, the Rays are a significantly better baseball team than the Athletics and likely to win many more games during the 2025 season. That means that any projection of wins that you may have had for Springs should be adjusted downward now that he’s joining the A’s.
Furthermore, while the Rays are also slated to play in a minor league ballpark during the upcoming season, the A’s temporary home in West Sacramento is expected to be an extreme hitters park. Springs struggled with the long ball in his return last season – giving up five in 33 innings – and that issue could be expanded exponentially at his new home ballpark.
I think that his overall price will remain in the 200-225 range for the time being. Once we see him on a mound during spring training, if he shows that he is healthy and has regained his velocity, that’s when Springs will start to make his surge up the draft board.
