One of the more intriguing storylines of this offseason was seeing where some of the free-agent bats were going to land, and in particular, the first base market seemed to be a waiting game to see what team would land one of the big names available at the position.
One of those names finally found a new home Friday.
Astros, 1B Christian Walker agree to deal, per multiple reports including https://t.co/Z3s2EpgF39's @Feinsand. pic.twitter.com/Es1STWKFdS
— MLB (@MLB) December 20, 2024
According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, Walker will get a three-year, $60 million contract to join his new club.
There’s a lot to make of this deal, and now is as good of time as any to take a look at the ramifications and potential fantasy impact.
What made/makes Christian Walker one of the better bats on the market?
Walker was originally a member of the Orioles, but he never got the chance to be a regular with the club; appearing in 13 games over two years. He was then waived and claimed three times in the winter of 2017; from Baltimore to Atlanta, from Atlanta to Cincinnati, and then Cincinnati to Arizona. He didn’t become a regular until 2019, but since then, he’s (somewhat) quietly become one of the better bats at his position. Since that year, he’s hit .253/.332/.464 while averaging 24 homers a year. He’s posted an OPS above .800 the last three seasons, and in 2024 he provided 26 homers while slashing .251/.335/.468 over 130 games.
What are the strengths of Walker’s game?
Literal strength is one of the biggest strengths for Walker, as you can probably tell by those numbers above. In 2024 he barreled the baseball 13.3 percent of the time -- or just one out of every seven at-bats -- and that placed him in the 90th percentile of all qualified MLB hitters. He generates that power thanks to his strong core with well above-average bat speed (75 mph on swings, 89th percentile). That helped him post an average exit velocity of of 91.2 mph, a hard-hit percent rate of 48 percent, and an expected slugging mark of .457; all of those marks good enough to rank in the 80th percentile or better.
In addition to the power, Walker is a selective hitter who rarely swings at pitches outside of the strike zone with a chase rate of 24.3 percent in 2024; meaning he swung at pitches that were not in the zone less than a quarter of a time. That helped him put up a walk rate of 10 percent in 2024, which is another number that ranks above-average for the former South Carolina slugger.
Oh, and it’s also worth pointing out that Walker’s defense at first is exceptional. He’s won three consecutive Gold Gloves, and while that award can at times not necessarily be the best estimate of the strongest defenders, the metrics suggest he’s as good at first base as anyone. That doesn’t have a ton of fantasy relevance, but it gives you an idea of why many believe he was the best first baseman on the market.
Where does Walker struggle?
Like many power hitters who are willing to work counts, Walker does have some issues with strikeouts. He struck out 131 times in 130 games last year, and he fanned in a less-than-spectacular 24.1 percent of his plate appearances. He was also below-average in terms of whiff rate at 25.6 percent, and that’s the main reason that despite all the hard contact he only hit .251 with an expected batting average of .246. That latter figure ranked in the 47th percentile.
The biggest issue for Walker in terms of swing-and-miss is his problems with breaking balls. He hit .229 against them while whiffing on them 30.7 percent of the time. Sliders and sweepers give him the biggest issue, but sliders in particular are a bugaboo as seen in a .206 average, .258 weighted on-base average and whiff rate of 31.7 percent.
If you can get ahead of Walker and have a good slider to put him away with, there’s a very good chance you’ll be successful. That’s true for a lot of hitters/pitchers, but it’s the one issue with Walker’s game that keeps him from joining that upper-echelon.
It’s also (barely) worth pointing out that Walker is not a stolen base threat at all, with well below-average speed and anything you receive from him in terms of fantasy is just an added bonus. Don’t expect many bonuses.
How’s the park and lineup fit?
He’s a right-handed hitter going to Houston, how do you think the park fits?
No but seriously, it’s a good one for any right-handed power bat. Walker isn’t an extreme pull hitter, but 19 of his 26 homers last year were to the pull side, and Minute Maid Park is notoriously friendly to hitters going to left field thanks to the short porch of the Crawford Boxes.
As for the lineup fit, yes, Houston loses Kyle Tucker and all but assuredly loses Alex Bregman now, but there are still good players to drive in here. He should hit in the middle of the lineup for the Astros and get a chance to drive in players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. It’s a good -- if maybe not great -- situation for Walker for 2025 and beyond.
Where does Walker rank among 2025 first baseman?
Before I definitely say, I’d like to know where Pete Alonso is going to be playing. His power is going to play anywhere but seeing Alonso play for, say, the Yankees as compared to, say, the Marlins (I know) makes a difference in this.
That being said, I think Walker will be in the top five of my rankings to begin the season; ranking only below Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson. You can make the argument for Alonso, Salvador Perez and Josh Naylor, but at least for my taste, I’d prefer Walker on my roster. Even acknowledging that several of those players are going to hit for a higher average, I’ll take the 30-plus homers and what should be close to 100-RBI production -- assuming good health/good results in front of him -- over all but those “big four.”
He’s not a fantasy superstar, but Walker is a really good player who is going to make the Astros and fantasy players better in 2025.
