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Here’s the first of three columns reviewing my preseason projections. I’ll cover the top 10 at each position and other notables, starting today with catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and DHs. Shortstops and outfielders will come next week, followed by starting pitchers to wrap things up (I don’t think there’s a lot to be gained by reviewing relief projections).
If you notice the gaps in the top 10 at each spot, that’s just multi-position stuff. DJ LeMahieu was listed in the top 10 at three positions initially, but I’m only including him in the second base list here. I’m also reverting back to preseason position eligibility, which leads to the occasional quirk. One example is Jonathan India being listed with the third basemen, as that was the only place he was eligible in traditional leagues going into the year. Also, Marcus Semien and others will be listed with the shortstops next week.
Catchers
1. J.T. Realmuto - Phillies
Projection: .268/.334/.487, 25 HR, 74 R, 76 RBI, 7 SB in 485 AB
2021 stats: .263/.343/.439, 17 HR, 64 R, 73 RBI, 13 SB in 476 AB
2. Will Smith - Dodgers
Projection: .271/.372/.544, 28 HR, 71 R, 75 RBI, 3 SB in 388 AB
2021 stats: .258/.365/.495, 25 HR, 71 R, 76 RBI, 3 SB in 414 AB
3. Salvador Perez - Royals
Projection: .255/.290/.479, 29 HR, 61 R, 83 RBI, 2 SB in 509 AB
2021 stats: .273/.316/.544, 48 HR, 88 R, 121 RBI, 1 SB in 620 AB
The funny thing about Perez’s huge season is that his OPS was 127 points higher in 2020. Of course, that was just 37 games, and it didn’t seem, to me anyway, to be wise to put all that much stock in it. From 2014-18 (he missed 2019), he hit .254/.285/.438 with 23 homers per year. I went a little higher than that, but obviously not nearly enough.[[ad:athena]]
4. Gary Sanchez - Yankees
Projection: .237/.326/.523, 31 HR, 63 R, 73 RBI, 1 SB in 388 AB
2021 stats: .204/.307/.423, 23 HR, 54 R, 54 RBI, 0 SB in 383 AB
5. Willson Contreras - Cubs
Projection: .255/.343/.488, 25 HR, 63 R, 69 RBI, 2 SB in 420 AB
2021 stats: .237/.340/.438, 21 HR, 61 R, 57 RBI, 5 SB in 413 AB
6. Travis d’Arnaud - Braves
Projection: .261/.326/.472, 17 HR, 46 R, 56 RBI, 1 SB in 337 AB
2021 stats: .220/.284/.388, 7 HR, 21 R, 26 RBI, 0 SB in 209 AB
7. Sean Murphy - Athletics
Projection: .249/.339/.476, 19 HR, 50 R, 48 RBI, 1 SB in 317 AB
2021 stats: .216/.306/.405, 17 HR, 47 R, 59 RBI, 0 SB in 393 AB
8. Francisco Mejia - Rays
Projection: .264/.316/.432, 15 HR, 45 R, 53 RBI, 1 SB in 356 AB
2021 stats: .260/.322/.416, 6 HR, 31 R, 35 RBI, 0 SB in 250 AB
I caught some flack for ranking Mejia this highly, but a lot of that was just me not liking the catcher spot much this year; I wasn’t all that aggressive with my projection. However, while Mejia ended up doing solid work, he took quite a step backwards in the exit velocity department from 2019. I’ve definitely lost some of my optimism for his long-term prospects.
9. Mitch Garver - Twins
Projection: .253/.344/.491, 17 HR, 47 R, 45 RBI, 1 SB in 281 AB
2021 stats: .256/.358/.517, 13 HR, 29 R, 34 RBI, 1 SB in 207 AB
10. Daulton Varsho - Diamondbacks
Projection: .243/.316/.432, 11 HR, 43 R, 38 RBI, 10 SB in 292 AB
2021 stats: .246/.318/.437, 11 HR, 41 R, 38 RBI, 6 SB in 284 AB
Probably my best projection. This was a tough call, too, given that Varsho was demoted to begin the season. He should be a top-four catcher next year, though he’ll likely play a lot of outfield unless the Diamondbacks trade Carson Kelly.
11. Yasmani Grandal - White Sox
Projection: .219/.347/.436, 24 HR, 66 R, 62 RBI, 2 SB in 429 AB
2021 stats: .240/.420/.520, 23 HR, 60 R, 62 RBI, 0 SB in 279 AB
This one might have turned out worse than Perez’s if Grandal had stayed healthy. Just don’t look at the at-bats, and it’s great, right? Right?
15. Buster Posey - Giants
Projection: .265/.342/.406, 11 HR, 52 R, 53 RBI, 2 SB in 404 AB
2021 stats: .304/.390/.499, 18 HR, 68 R, 56 RBI, 0 SB in 395 AB
I thought I was being optimistic here. Before opting out of the 2020 season, Posey slugged .375 and totaled 12 homers in 803 at-bats in 2018 and 2019.
21. Yadier Molina - Cardinals
Projection: .253/.298/.383, 12 HR, 41 R, 49 RBI, 2 SB in 415 AB
2021 stats: .252/.297/.370, 11 HR, 45 R, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 440 AB
22. Carson Kelly - Diamondbacks
Projection: .245/.311/.412, 14 HR, 42 R, 48 RBI, 1 SB in 371 AB
2021 stats: .240/.343/.411, 13 HR, 41 R, 46 RBI, 0 SB in 304 AB
As nice as this one looks, I think I was wrong about Kelly; he was legitimately great in April, and though he didn’t really keep it up in May and June, I believe his numbers would have been quite a bit better if not for the fractured wrist he suffered on June 19. I’ll be higher on him next year.
27. Pedro Severino - Orioles
Projection: .238/.307/.397, 11 HR, 34 R, 38 RBI, 2 SB in 302 AB
2021 stats: .248/.308/.383, 11 HR, 32 R, 46 RBI, 0 SB in 379 AB
34. Mike Zunino - Rays
Projection: .188/.260/.383, 19 HR, 41 R, 50 RBI, 0 SB in 373 AB
2021 stats: .216/.301/.559, 33 HR, 64 R, 62 RBI, 0 SB in 333 AB
First basemen
1. Cody Bellinger - Dodgers
Projection: .286/.373/.574, 40 HR, 98 R, 108 RBI, 14 SB in 542 AB
2021 stats: .165/.240/.302, 10 HR, 39 R, 36 RBI, 3 SB in 315 AB
It’s hard to imagine a much more disappointing season. Bellinger suffered a hairline fracture in his fibula in the fourth game of the year, missed 46 games, and then, outside of one week in August, just never got anything going. His 26.9% strikeout rate, while not obscene, was way up from both his MVP season in 2019 and his seemingly rough 2020 campaign. When he did hit the ball, it was far too often popups and routine flies. I imagine he’ll figure enough out to get back to .240-.250 with 30 homers, but he’ll be ranked much lower next spring.
2. Freddie Freeman - Braves
Projection: .296/.399/.559, 36 HR, 110 R, 111 RBI, 5 SB in 565 AB
2021 stats: .300/.393/.503, 31 HR, 120 R, 83 RBI, 8 SB in 600 AB
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Blue Jays
Projection: .298/.366/.537, 31 HR, 92 R, 105 RBI, 6 SB in 561 AB
2021 stats: .311/.401/.601, 48 HR, 123 R, 111 RBI, 4 SB in 604 AB
Guerrero ended up hitting twice as many homers in 604 at-bats this year than he did in 685 at-bats over his first two seasons.
5. Pete Alonso - Mets
Projection: .255/.345/.555, 45 HR, 92 R, 109 RBI, 2 SB in 553 AB
2021 stats: .262/.344/.519, 37 HR, 81 R, 94 RBI, 3 SB in 561 AB
Alonso dropping his strikeout rate from 26.2% in his first two seasons to 19.9% this year seems like a very good thing for his long-term outlook. Because of the way the baseball has changed, I won’t be projecting 45 homers again, but I expect I’ll be a little higher on him, relative to others here, next year than I was this year.
6. Jose Abreu - White Sox
Projection: .278/.336/.507, 34 HR, 88 R, 107 RBI, 1 SB in 607 AB
2021 stats: .261/.351/.481, 30 HR, 86 R, 117 RBI, 1 SB in 566 AB
7. Matt Olson - Athletics
Projection: .255/.345/.534, 41 HR, 92 R, 105 RBI, 1 SB in 560 AB
2021 stats: .271/.371/.540, 39 HR, 101 R, 111 RBI, 4 SB in 565 AB
8. C.J. Cron - Rockies
Projection: .271/.332/.533, 35 HR, 84 R, 102 RBI, 1 SB in 538 AB
2021 stats: .281/.375/.530, 28 HR, 70 R, 92 RBI, 1 SB in 470 AB
9. Ryan Mountcastle - Orioles
Projection: .273/.314/.499, 33 HR, 84 R, 98 RBI, 3 SB in 597 AB
2021 stats: .255/.309/.487, 33 HR, 77 R, 89 RBI, 4 SB in 534 AB
10. Eric Hosmer - Padres
Projection: .269/.325/.463, 28 HR, 82 R, 97 RBI, 6 SB in 590 AB
2021 stats: .269/.337/.395, 12 HR, 53 R, 65 RBI, 5 SB in 509 AB
That Hosmer’s improvement in 2020 was the result of an obvious change -- he went from a league-high groundball rate to one right around the league average -- led to optimism that he could keep it up. Alas, it was like 2020 never happened. He had three more homers in 151 games this year than his did in 38 games in 2020.
11. Paul Goldschmidt - Cardinals
Projection: .269/.376/.475, 29 HR, 103 R, 79 RBI, 3 SB in 579 AB
2021 stats: .294/.365/.514, 31 HR, 102 R, 99 RBI, 12 SB in 603 AB
13. Anthony Rizzo - Cubs/Yankees
Projection: .266/.381/.463, 26 HR, 94 R, 86 RBI, 4 SB in 560 AB
2021 stats: .248/.344/.440, 22 HR, 73 R, 61 RBI, 6 SB in 496 AB
15. Josh Bell - Nationals
Projection: .266/.361/.505, 31 HR, 84 R, 96 RBI, 1 SB in 531 AB
2021 stats: .261/.347/.476, 27 HR, 75 R, 88 RBI, 0 SB in 498 AB
19. Max Muncy - Dodgers
Projection: .238/.372/.472, 32 HR, 96 R, 79 RBI, 3 SB in 504 AB
2021 stats: .249/.368/.527, 36 HR, 95 R, 94 RBI, 2 SB in 497 AB
24. Bobby Dalbec - Red Sox
Projection: .230/.308/.491, 35 HR, 77 R, 84 RBI, 3 SB in 521 AB
2021 stats: .240/.298/.494, 25 HR, 50 R, 78 RBI, 2 SB in 417 AB
I don’t know that Dalbec has a future in Boston once Triston Casas proves ready, but he did enough over the last month and a half to earn another chance in 2022; he hit .293/.374/.740 with 14 homers in his final 40 games.
32. Jared Walsh - Angels
Projection: .257/.318/.462, 22 HR, 64 R, 67 RBI, 1 SB in 444 AB
2021 stats: .277/.340/.509, 29 HR, 70 R, 98 RBI, 2 SB in 530 AB
I was lower than most on Walsh, which obviously didn’t work out for me. I’ll probably be in the same boat next year, though. He’s hitting more homers than one would expect given his rather average exit velocity numbers and slightly below average flyball rate. Statcast gave him a .253 xBA and a .426 xSLG.
33. Andrew Vaughn - White Sox
Projection: .255/.328/.432, 21 HR, 71 R, 71 RBI, 2 SB in 521 AB
2021 stats: .235/.309/.396, 15 HR, 56 R, 48 RBI, 1 SB in 417 AB
I was also lower than most on Vaughn, but unlike with Walsh, I think that will change next year. In fact, I’m really looking forward to getting in on the post-hype here.
35. Joey Votto - Reds
Projection: .253/.379/.424, 20 HR, 85 R, 61 RBI, 2 SB in 505 AB
2021 stats: .266/.375/.563, 36 HR, 73 R, 99 RBI, 1 SB in 448 AB
Some smart people thought something like this might be in store for Votto. I didn’t buy in because there was nothing in Votto’s Statcast numbers from 2020, when he began to make his approach changes, that left me with much optimism. Somehow, though, he got his average exit velocity all of the way up to 92.9 mph this season. He was at 87.4 mph last year, and his previous high mark during the Statcast era was 90.1 mph in 2015, the first year such things were measured. He went from the 41st percentile in 2019 and 26th percentile in 2020 to the 93rd percentile this year.
53. Albert Pujols - Angels/Dodgers
Projection: .232/.284/.405, 14 HR, 33 R, 50 RBI, 1 SB in 311 AB
2021 stats: .236/.284/.433, 17 HR, 29 R, 50 RBI, 2 SB in 275 AB
57. Ji-Man Choi - Rays
Projection: .225/.341/.407, 11 HR, 33 R, 34 RBI, 1 SB in 258 AB
2021 stats: .229/.348/.411, 11 HR, 36 R, 45 RBI, 0 SB in 258 AB
NR. Patrick Wisdom - Cubs
Projection: .208/.280/.406, 5 HR, 12 R, 12 RBI, 1 SB in 96 AB
2021 stats: .231/.305/.518, 28 HR, 54 R, 61 RBI, 4 SB in 338 AB
Wisdom was a valuable player despite contact numbers (61.6% contact rate, 19.1% swinging strike rate) that look like what happens when an average hitter faces Josh Hader. I don’t think he can do it again, though since the power is pretty legit and he’s always been solid defensively at third base, he won’t be the worst player in the league.
Second basemen
1. Ozzie Albies - Braves
Projection: .286/.338/.511, 30 HR, 98 R, 92 RBI, 15 SB in 601 AB
2021 stats: .259/.310/.488, 30 HR, 103 R, 106 RBI, 20 SB in 629 AB
That’s an awfully impressive season for someone who hit 30 points below their career BABIP. Albies’s lifetime .273/.325/.477 line isn’t incredible, but in his three full seasons, he’s reached 100 runs scored and 40 doubles three times and averaged 26 homers, 88 RBI and 16 steals. Plus, he’s only turning 25 in January.
2. Whit Merrifield - Royals
Projection: .287/.333/.432, 16 HR, 94 R, 71 RBI, 26 SB in 644 AB
2021 stats: .277/.317/.395, 10 HR, 97 R, 74 RBI, 40 SB in 664 AB
Merrifield was nearly as valuable as ever for fantasy purposes this year, but since peaking at 120 in 2018, his OPS+ has dropped to 111 in 2019, 105 in 2020 and 91 this year. Plus, he’s turning 33 in January.
3. DJ LeMahieu - Yankees
Projection: .301/.365/.528, 29 HR, 104 R, 83 RBI, 6 SB in 602 AB
2021 stats: .268/.349/.362, 10 HR, 84 R, 57 RBI, 4 SB in 597 AB
This isn’t any good, but I didn’t think I could go any lower here after back-to-back top-four finishes in the MVP balloting. I was still low enough on him that no one following my rankings would have wound up drafting him.
4. Ketel Marte - Diamondbacks
Projection: .301/.365/.528, 29 HR, 104 R, 83 RBI, 6 SB in 602 AB
2021 stats: .318/.377/.532, 14 HR, 52 R, 50 RBI, 2 SB in 340 AB
5. Keston Hiura - Brewers
Projection: .261/.326/.502, 34 HR, 85 R, 97 RBI, 10 SB in 564 AB
2021 stats: .168/.256/.301, 4 HR, 16 R, 19 RBI, 3 SB in 173 AB
Hiura hitting .303/.368/.570 in 84 games as a rookie in 2019 is just a distant memory now. A change of scenery seems like it’d be for the best, as Hiura doesn’t seem to have anything to gain by playing in Triple-A but also can’t really be getting at-bats for a contender right now.
6. Brandon Lowe - Rays
Projection: .257/.337/.524, 36 HR, 93 R, 85 RBI, 9 SB in 540 AB
2021 stats: .247/.340/.523, 39 HR, 97 R, 99 RBI, 7 SB in 535 AB
7. Dylan Moore - Mariners
Projection: .252/.333/.454, 24 HR, 83 R, 68 RBI, 27 SB in 524 AB
2021 stats: .181/.276/.334, 12 HR, 42 R, 43 RBI, 21 SB in 332 AB
This was always going to be a risky one. I decided to bet on Moore despite not thinking a lot of him going into 2020, when he hit .255/.358/.496 in 159 plate appearances. His contact numbers were decent -- a little better than his 27% strikeout rate suggested -- and he hit the ball hard fairly consistently, finishing in the 77th percentile in average exit velocity and 78th percentile in hard-hit rate. This year, he dropped all of the way down to the 10th and 17th percentiles, respectively, in those two categories. Obviously, it wasn’t a recipe for success. Moore still has plenty of fantasy ability because of his basestealing, but it’d take quite a power revival to make it worth it for a major league team to play him fairly regularly.
8. Jose Altuve - Astros
Projection: .285/.349/.473, 24 HR, 92 R, 71 RBI, 10 SB in 554 AB
2021 stats: .278/.350/.489, 31 HR, 117 R, 83 RBI, 5 SB in 601 AB
9. Tommy Edman - Cardinals
Projection: .271/.334/.414, 16 HR, 86 R, 60 RBI, 21 SB in 558 AB
2021 stats: .262/.308/.387, 11 HR, 91 R, 56 RBI, 30 SB in 641 AB
10. Nick Madrigal - White Sox
Projection: .305/.357/.411, 7 HR, 77 R, 63 RBI, 18 SB in 528 AB
2021 stats: .305/.349/.425, 2 HR, 30 R, 21 RBI, 1 SB in 200 AB
The bat was there, but Madrigal seemed poised to fall well short of my expectations for his fantasy value before getting hurt. He went 35-for-48 stealing bases in the minors in 2019, but in 83 major league games, he’s just 3-for-6. He’s not as fast as I though he was, and he’s probably not going to be any faster next season after returning from hamstring surgery. Without more than a handful of steals, his fantasy potential seems rather limited.
11. Ryan McMahon - Rockies
Projection: .269/.344/.496, 28 HR, 81 R, 90 RBI, 4 SB in 520 AB
2021 stats: .254/.331/.449, 23 HR, 80 R, 86 RBI, 6 SB in 528 AB
12. Nick Solak - Rangers
Projection: .273/.346/.439, 17 HR, 81 R, 70 RBI, 15 SB in 545 AB
2021 stats: .242/.314/.362, 11 HR, 57 R, 49 RBI, 7 SB in 458 AB
16. Jake Cronenworth - Padres
Projection: .272/.340/.460, 18 HR, 67 R, 68 RBI, 13 SB in 467 AB
2021 stats: .266/.340/.460, 21 HR, 94 R, 71 RBI, 4 SB in 567 AB
18. Jean Segura - Phillies
Projection: .275/.329/.424, 16 HR, 73 R, 68 RBI, 12 SB in 538 AB
2021 stats: .290/.348/.436, 14 HR, 76 R, 58 RBI, 9 SB in 514 AB
19. Brendan Rodgers - Rockies
Projection: .287/.336/.479, 16 HR, 58 R, 62 RBI, 4 SB in 407 AB
2021 stats: .284/.328/.470, 15 HR, 49 R, 51 RBI, 0 SB in 387 AB
Rodgers had a rather nice stat line after returning from the hamstring injury that cost him the first seven weeks, but it was rather disappointing how often he hit the ball on the ground. Also, it’s a bummer that he hasn’t so much as attempted a steal in 134 major league games. I thought he’d eventually emerge as an elite fantasy infielder with Coors helping him out, but I’m not quite as optimistic now.
20. Gavin Lux - Dodgers
Projection: .277/.350/.472, 16 HR, 61 R, 59 RBI, 8 SB in 375 AB
2021 stats: .242/.328/.364, 7 HR, 49 R, 46 RBI, 4 SB in 335 AB
Lux, on the other hand, was a little better than his numbers suggest, I think. His big problem is that too much of his hard contact came on grounders, even though his GB/FB ratio wasn’t bad (of the 404 players with 100 batted-ball events this year, Lux had the 229th highest average exit velocity on flies and liners and 47th highest on grounders). Many will be questioning his upside because of his lack of power to date, which is certainly fair, but I’m still rather optimistic. That said, whether I really get aggressive with his ranking next spring will depend on if Chris Taylor is still around or if someone similar has been brought in.
37. Ty France - Mariners
Projection: .261/.330/.431, 20 HR, 72 R, 75 RBI, 2 SB in 547 AB
2021 stats: .291/.368/.445, 18 HR, 85 R, 73 RBI, 0 SB in 571 AB
40. Josh Rojas - Diamondbacks
Projection: .251/.336/.419, 12 HR, 54 R, 44 RBI, 11 SB in 351 AB
2021 stats: .264/.341/.411, 11 HR, 69 R, 44 RBI, 9 SB in 484 AB
55. Nicky Lopez - Royals
Projection: .253/.317/.340, 4 HR, 46 R, 33 RBI, 7 SB in 368 AB
2021 stats: .300/.365/.378, 2 HR, 78 R, 43 RBI, 22 SB in 497 AB
Lopez was 1-for-7 stealing bases in 159 major league games coming into the season. He was 22-for-23 this year.
Third basemen
1. Jose Ramirez - Indians
Projection: .276/.360/.535, 36 HR, 100 R, 99 RBI, 23 SB in 576 AB
2021 stats: .266/.355/.538, 36 HR, 111 R, 103 RBI, 27 SB in 552 AB
Imagine thinking five or six years that Jose Ramirez might get into the Hall of Fame someday.
2. Manny Machado - Padres
Projection: .278/.355/.529, 37 HR, 97 R, 107 RBI, 10 SB in 582 AB
2021 stats: .278/.347/.489, 28 HR, 92 R, 106 RBI, 12 SB in 564 AB
3. Alex Bregman - Astros
Projection: .286/.405/.535, 32 HR, 105 R, 97 RBI, 5 SB in 538 AB
2021 stats: .270/.355/.422, 12 R, 54 R, 55 RBI, 1 SB in 348 AB
5. Yoan Moncada - White Sox
Projection: .282/.356/.517, 31 HR, 94 R, 95 RBI, 9 SB in 575 AB
2021 stats: .263/.375/.412, 14 HR, 74 R, 61 RBI, 3 SB in 520 AB
I figured Moncada’s power would come back this year after his bout with COVID in 2020, but it didn’t materialize. He had a fine year for the White Sox anyway, thanks to his career-low strikeout rate and career-best .375 OBP, but there wasn’t much in it for fantasy leaguers, especially since he stopped stealing bases, too. His exit velocity numbers weren’t bad, so there’s still hope for a revival.
6. Rafael Devers - Red Sox
Projection: .284/.339/.517, 31 HR, 92 R, 103 RBI, 5 SB in 596 AB
2021 stats: .279/.352/.538, 38 HR, 101 R, 113 RBI, 5 SB in 591 AB
7. Anthony Rendon - Angels
Projection: .294/.385/.529, 28 HR, 93 R, 103 RBI, 3 SB in 537 AB
2021 stats: .240/.329/.382, 6 HR, 24 R, 34 RBI, 0 SB in 217 AB
8. Ke’Bryan Hayes - Pirates
Projection: .283/.353/.484, 23 HR, 94 R, 82 RBI, 16 SB in 587 AB
2021 stats: .257/.316/.373, 6 HR, 49 R, 38 RBI, 9 SB in 362 AB
I still think he would have been very good if not for the wrist injury, but that his wrist is still not right at this point and might require surgery will probably cause me to back off a little bit in next year’s projection.
9. Nolan Arenado - Cardinals
Projection: .282/.346/.509, 34 HR, 94 R, 102 RBI, 2 SB in 603 AB
2021 stats: .255/.312/.494, 34 HR, 81 R, 105 RBI, 2 SB in 593 AB
Arenado was fine away from Coors, but Statcast was not impressed, crediting him with just 34 barrels (for some perspective, there were about 40% more barrels than home runs hits this season) and giving him an expected slugging of .411.
10. Matt Chapman - Athletics
Projection: .262/.347/.547, 40 HR, 100 R, 98 RBI, 1 SB in 554 AB
2021 stats: .210/.314/.403, 27 HR, 75 R, 72 RBI, 3 SB in 529 AB
12. Alec Bohm - Phillies
Projection: .284/.353/.470, 23 HR, 85 R, 87 RBI, 4 SB in 564 AB
2021 stats: .247/.305/.342, 7 HR, 46 R, 47 RBI, 4 SB in 380 AB
Bohm had 135 hard-hit balls (with a 90th percentile hard-hit rate) and 22 extra-base hits in his 380 at-bats this year, which is pretty incredible. His groundball rate was excessive, of course, but not to the degree that suggests he should have done that badly. I’m still confident that he’s too talented not to figure out the offensive part of the equation. Defense is a different matter, and there wouldn’t seem to be much reason to continue to try to develop him at third base. It’d be a big win if he proved adequate in left field, but he might just be a DH. I’ll certainly be a lot higher on him next year if the Phillies have that spot to work with.
13. Eugenio Suarez - Reds
Projection: .252/.349/.503, 37 HR, 87 R, 93 RBI, 2 SB in 543 AB
2021 stats: .198/.286/.428, 31 HR, 71 R, 79 RBI, 0 SB in 505 AB
18. Austin Riley - Braves
Projection: .251/.311/.504, 35 HR, 80 R, 91 RBI, 2 SB in 534 AB
2021 stats: .303/.367/.531, 33 HR, 91 R, 107 RBI, 0 SB in 590 AB
Never thought Riley would have a .300 season in him. I wouldn’t count on him ever having another.
19. Kris Bryant - Cubs/Giants
Projection: .264/.367/.482, 27 HR, 94 R, 74 RBI, 3 SB in 527 AB
2021 stats: .265/.353/.481, 25 HR, 86 R, 73 RBI, 10 SB in 513 AB
Bryant’s Statcast numbers didn’t back up his big first month and a half (he had a 1.071 OPS on May 15), and he was pretty average the rest of the way, coming in at .249/.334/.756 in his final 108 games. How he performs in the postseason here could make a big difference in whether he’s viewed as an elite player in free agency.
20. Josh Donaldson - Twins
Projection: .252/.373/.493, 31 HR, 93 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB in 511 AB
2021 stats: .247/.352/.475, 26 HR, 73 R, 72 RBI, 0 SB in 457 AB
21. Justin Turner - Dodgers
Projection: .287/.376/.497, 23 HR, 75 R, 77 RBI, 2 SB in 457 AB
2021 stats: .278/.361/.471, 27 HR, 87 R, 87 RBI, 3 SB in 533 AB
31. Eduardo Escobar - Diamondbacks/Brewers
Projection: .251/.309/.454, 24 HR, 73 R, 80 RBI, 3 SB in 542 AB
2021 stats: .253/.314/.472, 28 HR, 77 R, 90 RBI, 1 SB in 549 AB
33. Kyle Seager - Mariners
Projection: .243/.328/.441, 27 HR, 78 R, 81 RBI, 3 SB in 555 AB
2021 stats: .212/.285/.438, 35 HR, 73 R, 101 RBI, 3 SB in 603 AB
34. Jonathan India - Reds
Projection: .241/.335/.412, 18 HR, 68 R, 63 RBI, 11 SB in 485 AB
2021 stats: .269/.376/.459, 21 HR, 98 R, 69 RBI, 12 SB in 532 AB
India’s original projection called for him to get 127 at-bats, and he didn’t even make the cut for our draft guide magazine, which was sent to the publisher in January. Things changed when the Reds found themselves left off the shortstop carousel. India ended up having a brilliant rookie season, beating his .767 OPS from a 2019 season spent in high-A and Double-A by nearly 80 points. His approach is great, and he should be here to stay as a fine top-of-the-order guy for the Reds. I’m not as sure that he’ll build on his total of 21 homers in year two.
61. Abraham Toro - Astros/Mariners
Projection: .243/.327/.405, 5 HR, 23 R, 18 RBI, 2 SB in 148 AB
2021 stats: .239/.316/.373, 11 HR, 45 R, 46 RBI, 6 SB in 335 AB
Designated hitters
1. Yordan Alvarez - Astros
Projection: .290/.381/.588, 37 HR, 86 R, 105 RBI, 2 SB in 483 AB
2021 stats: .277/.346/.531, 33 HR, 92 R, 104 RBI, 1 SB in 537 AB
Alvarez’s .877 OPS paled in comparison to his previous career mark of 1.064 in 89 games, but he still proved to be a fine value pick for fantasy purposes because he overcame the questions about his knee and played in 144 games. I don’t know that “bounce back” is a fair term to use here, but I do think he’ll post better numbers next year.
2. J.D. Martinez - Red Sox
Projection: .291/.368/.546, 36 HR, 93 R, 105 RBI, 2 SB in 560 AB
2021 stats: .286/.349/.518, 28 HR, 92 R, 99 RBI, 0 SB in 570 AB
3. Franmil Reyes - Indians
Projection: .266/.333/.535, 40 HR, 87 R, 104 RBI, 1 SB in 564 AB
2021 stats: .254/.324/.522, 30 HR, 57 R, 85 RBI, 4 SB in 418 AB
I had Reyes homering every 14.1 at-bats. He ended up homering once every 13.9 at-bats. He’s still just 26, and he could have a home run crown in his future.
4. Nelson Cruz - Twins/Rays
Projection: .273/.366/.547, 39 HR, 81 R, 100 RBI, 0 SB in 505 AB
2021 stats: .265/.334/.497, 32 HR, 79 R, 86 RBI, 3 SB in 513 AB
The first time it looked like the years might be catching up to Cruz was in 2018, when he settled for a .256 average and 37 homers after coming in at .292-42 over the previous three seasons. However, that was a mirage, according to his Statcast numbers, which said he was hitting about as well as ever. This year, there was some actual slippage, though not to a huge degree. It should cause him to come cheaper next spring than he has in nearly a decade.
5. Giancarlo Stanton - Yankees
Projection: .253/.347/.549, 41 HR, 89 R, 98 RBI, 2 SB in 495 AB
2021 stats: .273/.354/.516, 35 HR, 64 R, 97 RBI, 0 SB in 510 AB
6. Shohei Ohtani - Angels
Projection: .268/.346/.528, 24 HR, 63 R, 67 RBI, 9 SB in 373 AB
2021 stats: .257/.372/.592, 46 HR, 103 R, 100 RBI, 26 SB in 537 AB
I didn’t trust Ohtani to stay healthy while both hitting and pitching, but he ended up appearing in 155 games offensively and finishing 36th in the majors with 639 plate appearances. That was actually the bigger surprise than his success. After all, his 158 OPS+ this year wasn’t much better than his 151 mark in 104 games as an MLB rookie in 2018.
7. Miguel Cabrera -Tigers
Projection: .268/.346/.447, 23 HR, 66 R, 74 RBI, 1 SB in 515 AB
2021 stats: .256/.316/.386, 15 HR, 48 R, 75 RBI, 0 SB in 472 AB
