Tonight we have a 15-game slate with a lot of strong options for DFS. There are a lot of top arms to choose from, and depending on the weather, there are also some really appealing leverage options.
As always, make sure to check MLB lineups and weather before lineup lock. Now, let’s get into some of my top DFS plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pitcher
Trevor Bauer @ Miami Marlins
There are four or five guys at the top tonight, but when considering weather and ballpark, Bauer is the top option for me. Miami is a weak offense, and this is one of the best ballparks in baseball for pitchers. Bauer has a 28.3% strikeout rate this season, and a 32.3% against right-handed handed hitters. With seven projected right-handed hitters in this Miami lineup, it’s a really good spot for Bauer. This projected lineup has a .125 ISO with a .302 wOBA and a 23.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Vince Velasquez vs. Detroit Tigers
While I don’t like taking pitchers in this ballpark, I do think this is a great spot for Velasquez. The Tigers have been one of the worst offenses this season, and they rank 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. As a team they have the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Velasquez has been much better against right-handed hitters throughout his career, and the Tigers are projected to have seven right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight. It also helps that the Tigers are losing the DH tonight and will have to deal with losing one of their everyday hitters.
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Catcher
Curt Casali @ New York Mets
I like to spend down at catcher, and it’s always great when we get a catcher batting in the middle of the order. Casali is cheap on DraftKings tonight, and he’s going to be hitting fifth or sixth in this lineup. Since the start of 2018, Vargas has a .370 wOBA with a .232 ISO and a 38.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters. In that same span, Casali has a .167 ISO with a .372 wOBA against lefties. He’s a cheap catcher worth a look in all formats tonight.
First Base
Anthony Rizzo @ Seattle Mariners
I hate taking hitters in this ballpark, but Rizzo is one of my favorite one-off tournament plays on this slate. Felix Hernandez has been solid this season, but he’s relying on his sinker to generate a lot of groundballs. He’s throwing it over 40% of the time to left-handed hitters this season. Since the start of 2016, Anthony Rizzo has a .514 wOBA with a .391 ISO and a 41.47% hard-hit rate against sinkers. He has a 92.22% contact rate against sinkers in that span. Rizzo has massive upside in this spot, and one bad sinker could lead to a top fantasy day.
Second Base
Jose Peraza @ New York Mets
Like I mentioned above, Jason Vargas has struggled with right-handed hitters since the start of 2018. I don’t want to fully stack the Reds tonight, but I do like three of four of these bats. Peraza is projected to hit lead-off for the Reds tonight, which makes him a good value across the industry. He has a low strikeout rate with a low walk rate, which tells me he’s going to put the ball in play. That’s all we can ask for in fantasy baseball.
Third Base
Colin Moran @ Texas Rangers
Make sure to check the weather in this game, but if it’s good to go, this is a great spot for the lefties in this Pirates lineup. Colin Moran has a .196 ISO with a .377 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. His CXwOBA is pushing .425 against righties, and he’s making a lot of good contact. Sampson allows a lot of hard contact to lefties and doesn’t really have a big strikeout pitch. The upside for the Pirates is massive if the weather holds off.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts vs. Oakland Athletics
Boston is one of the top stacks on the slate for me, and Xander has a nice discount compared to the other expensive shortstops on this slate. Aaron Brooks pitched well against Boston in Oakland, but the Red Sox have been hitting a lot better as a team since then. Brooks is a pitch to contact type of pitcher, which makes me like the Red Sox even more tonight. Brooks has a .349 wOBA with a .278 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. After a slow start to the season, Xander is up to a .326 wOBA with a 90.1 average exit velocity against righties.
Outfield
Joey Gallo vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Lyles has been really solid for the Pirates this season, but he continues to struggle with left-handed hitters. He has a .361 wOBA with a .250 ISO and a 57.1% fly ball rate against left-handed hitters this season. Joey Gallo has massive upside on any slate, but it’s even bigger in this spot. Gallo has a 71.4% hard-hit rate against righties with a 99.2 average exit velocity. With the potential for hard contact and fly balls in this spot, Gallo is one of my favorite tournament plays on this slate.
Kole Calhoun vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Calhoun has been a completely different hitter at the plate this season, and you can really tell he spent a lot of time this off-season changing his swing. Buchholz has struggled with lefties for years, and while he has a high groundball rate, guys that can get the ball up in the air against him benefit. Calhoun has a 47.8% fly ball rate against right-handed pitching this season, with a really strong .274 ISO and a 63% hard-hit rate. I’ve been targeting him more against groundball pitchers this season, so I like this spot for him tonight.
