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We’ve made it. The Mets will face off against the Braves in the last game of the 2021 MLB regular season, commencing at 3:20 PM EDT on Sunday, October 3rd. Though, some fantasy leagues have already concluded. To those of you who have already claimed a fantasy championship, congratulations! Earning a fantasy baseball championship is no easy task, so you should truly feel proud of this accomplishment.
However, for others, this last week of the season will decide whether or not you walk away a champion. Every single point matters, so making sure you have multiple avenues to points -- hot bats, productive relief pitchers, and strong starts -- is crucial. Now, I’d like to just take a quick second to thank all of you who have been supporting my waiver wire pieces throughout the season. I love baseball, I love writing about baseball, and here’s to a strong finish to the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
Good luck! I’m rooting for you![[ad:athena]]
Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues)
Shane Baz SP, Rays (25% rostered)
We’re witnessing the emergence of a star, folks. Armed with an electric high-spin four-seam fastball that can reach triple digits, a strong slider, a curveball, a changeup, Baz went from a potential high leverage relief pitcher to a potential number two starter in just a few years. It’s not all about stuff with Baz, though, as he’s fully capable of consistently demonstrating strong command of his four-seam fastball and his slider. His curveball and changeup command are still works in progress, but the makeup is there for Baz to be a truly effective MLB starting pitcher.
In his first MLB start against one of the better lineups in MLB in Toronto, Baz completed five innings, allowing two earned runs on two hits while striking out five and walking zero. He generated 15 swinging strikes in the outing (33% whiff rate), utilizing his four-seamer and slider the most, followed by his curveball. He routinely threw his four-seamer to his gloveside while attempting to keep his breaking pitches below the zone. When he starts to incorporate his changeup until his arsenal, he’ll become a very frustrating opponent for left-handed hitters, and a better pitcher overall. He’ll likely make one, maybe two, more starts this season and he’ll be fantasy viable in each one. Baz is a special pitcher, and he should be treated as such. Grab him now, if it’s not already too late.
Jon Lester SP, Cardinals (28% rostered)
Five-time All-Star and three-time World Series Champion, Jon Lester is trying his best to turn back the clock over the final few weeks of what’s been a rather unimpressive age-37 campaign. Over his last six starts (35 ⅔ innings), the veteran left-hander has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Before this run, Lester had an appalling 5.27 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over his first 100 ⅔ innings pitched of 2021. So what’s changed? Well, the honest answer is nothing -- nothing notable.
His pitch mix usages have been fluctuating like usual, there’s been no uptick in velocity, and as a whole, nothing in his profile indicates that he’s been a 2.27 ERA pitcher. In fact, his 5.15 SIERA and 100.0% left on base rate over this time span helps paint the picture of a pitcher who’s simply been very lucky. Lester is still capable of limiting hard contact, which helps him control the amount of hits he allows to an extent. But his mediocre strikeout rate means that he’ll have to continue to rely heavily on his defense. Luckily, Lester is playing behind one of the better defenses in baseball, which has likely helped him limit runs over these last few weeks. It looks like he’ll finish off his season against the Cubs, so if you’re desperate for some points to help you take the lead during this crucial week, Lester makes for an ideal last resort option.
Michael Fulmer SP/RP, Tigers (19% rostered)
It amazes me every time I remember that Michael Fulmer was drafted all the way back in 2011, about a decade ago. The hard-throwing righty has dealt with a myriad of injuries as a professional baseball player, which has limited his opportunities to prove himself at the major league level. The worst of them all came in spring 2019 when he underwent Tommy John surgery, missing all of 2019 and most of 2020. Coming into 2021, his stuff looked as strong as ever, so the Tigers opted to try him out as a high leverage bullpen arm and the results have been encouraging.
Ever since he transitioned to a full-time bullpen role around May 5th (44 ⅔ innings), Fulmer has a 2.42 ERA (3.28 SIERA), a 1.30 WHIP, and a 20.0% K-BB (50/12 K/BB). He’s been primarily relying on his high-90s hard pitches and his slider this season, but he’s also utilized his changeup and curveball. Furthermore, he’s converted 11-of-15 save opportunities and there’s a chance that he finds himself in a similar role in 2022 in someone’s bullpen. Nonetheless, for this final week, a couple of saves could go a long way.
Josh Rogers SP/RP, Nationals (10% rostered)
With the Nationals in full rebuild mode, some generally unfamiliar names are getting the opportunity to show what they can do. One of these players is 27-year-old lefty, Josh Rogers. A former 11th round pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, Rogers has never had much upside -- and to be quite frank, he still doesn’t. However, given his ability to throw strikes with all of his pitches, he’s been able to eat innings since being called up on September 4th.
Armed with a low-90s, low-spin four-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup, he lacks a true out pitch and realistically, he could just be a bullpen arm long-term. At best, I believe he ends up as a backend starter given his solid control. Even so, it looks like he’ll be finishing 2021 as a member of the Nationals’ rotation. With that being the case, Rogers could make for a solid last resort stream if you’re looking for free points. Anything about zero should be looked at as positive when it comes to streaming, so if you’re in desperation mode, Rogers makes for an acceptable pickup.
Scott Barlow RP, Royals (40% rostered)
Regardless of whatever else is going on in a pitcher’s profile, having a 29.3% career strikeout rate over 186 ⅔ MLB innings means that that pitcher has the ability to carve out a prominent role at the major league level. Enter Scott Barlow, the 28-year-old righty who has taken reign of Royals’ closer role as the season has progressed. On the year, he has a 2.40 ERA (3.33 SIERA), a 1.18 WHIP, and a 20.5% K-BB (86/26 K/BB). This has been by far the most productive campaign of his MLB career, and gradually increasing velocity could be helping him reach his potential.
He threw the hardest pitch of his career this season, a 98.5 mph four-seam fastball. This isn’t random, as his hard pitch velocity has been trending up since 2019. Along with this uptick in velocity, Barlow is armed with two true out pitches: a curveball and a slider. Both pitches have a whiff rate of at least 40% and he commands them well. All in all, Barlow will finish 2021 as the Royals’ closer, meaning he could provide you with some much needed points out of your relief pitching spot during this final week of the season.
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Deep Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 10% of ESPN leagues)
Nick Gordon SS/2B/OF, Twins (9% rostered)
As the former 5th overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, Gordon’s arrival as a useful fantasy asset is well overdue. Add on the fact that he’s the brother of speedster Dee Strange-Gordon and his overall makeup becomes even more fascinating. In his early prospect days, Gordon’s defensive prowess and solid all-around offensive abilities meant Gordon would likely be an above average major league player one day. Fast-forward to 2021 and that projection still looks very realistic.
Many were hoping he would tap into more power as a minor leaguer, but it never happened. Rather, he demonstrated the ability to consistently be a smart base stealer while having a solid overall approach when at the plate. He will never excel in one offensive category, but his high baseball IQ, strong defense skills, and budding offensive ability will allow him to stick in MLB for years. What this means for his fantasy value long-term remains to be seen, but over his first 179 MLB at-bats, he’s slashing .263/.316/.391 with four home runs and a 90.1% steal rate (10-for-11). He’s going to be one of the most intriguing late-round sleepers of 2022 and for the remainder of 2021, he has the skills to help any points league roster.
Keibert Ruiz C, Nationals (8% rostered)
Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s 19th best prospect, Keibert Ruiz will likely be looking to make a name for himself in the nation’s capital for the next few years. The switch-hitting 23-year-old already had plenty of experience playing professional baseball, as he’s racked up 1,723 minor league at-bats. Over these at-bats, he earned a splendid .301/.356/.453 slash line with 50 home runs, a 7.1% walk rate, and a 9.7% strikeout rate. These numbers are obviously impressive and paint the picture of a truly special hitter. Hitters who have advanced approaches at such a young age have a more clear path to tapping into more power than originally projected, and that’s exactly what we could be seeing with Ruiz.
Over his first 1,439 minor league at-bats, he mashed 29 home runs. Over 284 at-bats playing in Triple-A in 2021, he hit 21 home runs. Clearly, Ruiz is slowly becoming a more productive offensive contributor as he garners more experience. On July 30th of this season, Ruiz was traded to the Nationals and ever since September 14th, he’s been hitting everything coming his way. Not literally everything, but he’s 15-for-30 with a home run and a ridiculous 1/0 K/BB. Over this last week, you need players who are hot, making Ruiz an ideal pickup for managers who are currently rostering a slumping catcher.
Jack Mayfield 3B/SS, Angels (1% rostered)
Picking up Jack Mayfield is what playoff baseball is all about. In the midst of the regular season, there are prospects you’re looking to stash and veterans returning from injury, so there’s no room to roster a player like Mayfield. Well, when there’s one week of baseball remaining, only one thing matters: production. At 30-years-old, Mayfield only has 340 MLB at-bats under his belt, as he’s spent the majority of his 20s playing in Houston’s minor league system. Nothing about his profile really stood out early in his professional career, but in 2019 playing in Triple-A, he hit 26 of his 105 career minor league home runs (2,585 career minor league at-bats). And given Anthony Rendon’s season-ending hip surgery, Mayfield has been receiving regular playing time at third base as of late.
There’s a reason his rostership is so low, though. He’s an unproven 30-year-old who’s one path to fantasy relevancy appears to be discovering his power stroke at the major league level. The home runs haven’t been landing, but since September 16th (35 at-bats), he’s slashing .286/.324/.543 with a 44.4% hard hit rate and four total barrels (27 batted ball events). It would not be surprising to see this hot stretch last through the end of the season, making Mayfield a very sneaky addition to any points league roster.
