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The first game of the 2021 NFL season just played out a couple days ago and now it’s more clear than ever that the fantasy baseball season will soon be over. Officially, the last game of the regular season will be on Sunday, October 3rd. Just about every fantasy league’s playoffs should be commencing this week, meaning if you’re here, you’re probably looking for some tips to help you win your playoff matchup. Fortunately for you, you’ve come to the right place.
Given that it’s September, teams have started to take advantage of now having 28 players on the active roster -- no less. In the past, teams could call up to 40 players to be on the active roster. But starting last season, the MLB decided to limit this, creating more equality regarding roster usages during the later parts of the regular season. As a result, not as many prospects can see late season action.
Nonetheless, teams are still awarding young players opportunities to show what they can do at the big league level. They don’t have much time to make a great first impression and some won’t perform well. However, there could be one or two call-ups who do perform well and if you have them on your playoff team when they do, you’ll likely have an advantage over your opponent. With all this being said, in this week’s points league waiver wire piece, I’ll be highlighting a handful of players who could help you win your playoff matchups. Without further ado, let’s get into it![[ad:athena]]
Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues)
Alejandro Kirk C, Blue Jays (12% rostered)
They say one should never judge a book by it’s cover, and they’re absolutely right. Alejandro Kirk’s introduction to professional baseball came about rather unexpectedly -- and a bit unconventionally. As a 5-foot-7, 200+ pound 17-year-old, Kirk’s physique was (is) arguably the least impressive aspect of his game. After discovering Kirk during a showcase held by the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican Baseball league in summer 2016, Blue Jays’ scout Dean Decillis reportedly had this to say about Kirk:
“Look, this guy is big...He’s going to walk into a professional complex and people are going to be like, ‘What is going on? Who is this guy?’ But I’m telling you he can hit, and I’m telling you he can catch.”
If you send a scout to another country and they return with this type of intel, it’s best to listen closely. Andrew Tinnish -- the vice president of international scouting for the Blue Jays -- did exactly that and now, the Blue Jays have one of the best young catchers in baseball in their system.
He didn’t have a lengthy minor league career before being called up to the majors, but over 567 career at-bats, he earned an impressive .317/.416/.503 slash line with 19 home runs, a 13.9% walk rate, and a 10.2% strikeout rate. These are extremely promising numbers and at this point, Dean Decillis was clearly deserving of a raise. He made his MLB debut on September 12th, 2020 and over the first 159 at-bats of his MLB career, he has a .289/.361/.503 slash line with eight home runs, a 8.9% walk rate, and a 12.2% strikeout rate. In other words, he’s been as good as advertised to start his MLB career. Inconsistent playing time has unfortunately capped his fantasy upside up to this point, but he’s been receiving regular opportunities as of late. With that being the case, Kirk makes for a solid add if you’re searching for late-season upside at the catcher position.
Andrew Chafin RP, Athletics (14% rostered)
It’s easy to overlook Chafin and his discernible mustache, but few relief pitchers have produced better results this season. In fact, his 1.64 ERA over 60 ⅓ innings ranks 5th overall in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. Of course, he’s not this good (3.40 SIERA), but he could be a productive relief pitching option for your playoff teams over these last few weeks.
The veteran southpaw spent most of his career in Arizona before landing with the Cubs and now, the Athletics. He’s been a four-seamer, sinker, slider pitcher for most of his career, except he’s regularly changed which pitch he utilizes the most and this year, he’s been a sinker-first guy. Overall, he’s been throwing his hard pitches about 74% of the time this season and each of his sinker and four-seamer have at least a 54% zone rate. He’s had a strike-throwing, bulldog mentality all season and it’s helped him limit walks at a career best rate (6.2% walk rate). Additionally, his slider is a very effective put-away pitch (career 42.7% K-BB) and given his generally consistent release point, his slider pairs well with his hard pitches. There’s no set closer in Oakland right now, but Chafin has successfully converted both of his save opportunities since August 29th. All in all, his experience and fluid role in the Athletics’ bullpen should help him remain fantasy relevant for the remainder of the season.
A.J. Alexy SP, Rangers (15% rostered)
Touting a young pitcher with questionable command is always a dubious task, but A.J. Alexy could be a solid source of starting pitching depth over these last few weeks. Originally an 11th round draft selection by the Dodgers in the 2016 MLB Draft, Alexy was never a highly touted prospect and still to this day, some think he’ll be a bullpen arm long-term. These concerns are warranted, as Alexy’s never consistently demonstrated solid command skills. He can throw strikes, but the ability to consistently locate his pitches is not a skill he currently possesses.
Over 300 ⅓ minor league innings, he earned a 11.8% walk rate. Until his command improves, his ceiling as an MLB starter will be capped. Fortunately, Alexy does have some redeeming qualities. To start, he has a career 29.1% strikeout rate in the minors, as he’s been able to consistently strike batters out at a high rate. Additionally, at 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, Alexy certainly has the physique to handle a starter’s workload, he just needs to continue to refine his command.
On the mound, Alexy utilizes a four-seamer that has sat low-mid 90s in the majors so far, but the pitch has reportedly reached the upper 90s in the minors. He’s also armed with a 12-6 curveball, a changeup, and a slider. Over his first 11 major league innings pitched, the young righty has given up just two hits while earning a 11/5 K/BB. He’s struck out multiple batters with each of his four-seamer, changeup, and slider, and he’s been limiting hard contact. We’ll need his sample size to grow to get a more clear picture of where he’s at, but given the circumstances, you need to act now if you want him to help you with your playoff chances. There’s certainly risk here given his general inexperience, but if your options are thin, he’s a solid target.
J.P. Crawford SS, Mariners (21% rostered)
I’ve advised targeting multiple boring players throughout the season, and Crawford might be the most boring of them all. When I say “boring”, I’m not referring to their character or who they are as a person -- I don’t know them. Rather, I’m referring to their usefulness as a fantasy asset, even though they lack a high, or exciting, ceiling.
Believe it or not, back in 2016, Crawford was ranked as baseball’s second best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. Some notable players who were ranked behind him include Tyler Glasnow, Rafael Devers, and Aaron Judge. Oof. But to be fair, at the time, Crawford’s quick bat/hands, strong on-base skills, fluid defensive abilities, decent speed, and the hope that his game power would continue to blossom made him one of the most alluring prospects in the game. His ranking was justifiable, but it’s now clear that Crawford will likely never live up to the hype. This doesn’t mean he can’t help your fantasy teams, though.
He’s received a career high 532 at-bats this season and his production has been serviceable: .267/.332/.368 slash line with eight home runs, three stolen bases, a 8.3% walk rate, and a 17.3% strikeout rate. His ability to hit for average is backed by consistent contact rates (career 88.4% zone contact; 82.7% contact) and his solid pitch recognition skills. Moreover, he’s posted max exit velocities at or above 110 mph this season and last. Over the first 400 batted ball events of his career, his highest max exit velocity mark was 108.6 mph. Max exit velocity is arguably the best indicator of a batter’s raw power, so it’s certainly possible that there’s untapped power potential in Crawford’s bat. However, it’s even more possible that he doesn’t reach that power ceiling over these last few weeks. His value will come from his ability to get on base while chipping in the occasional home run or stolen base. As I said, boring, but useful.
Evan Longoria 3B, Giants (17% rostered)
Longoria has been a reliable fantasy option for most of his career. He’s mashed 20 home runs in a season 10 times and he’s reached 30 home runs four times. More than that, he’s never had a strikeout rate that was too high and he’s always had a respectable batting average. Personally, he’s one of my favorite third baseman of all-time and in his age-35 season, he’s showing that he still has plenty left in the tank.
Despite only having 188 at-bats due to multiple injured list trips, Longoria has a solid .287/.386/.527 slash line with 11 home runs, 38 runs, 37 RBI, and a stolen base. If he never dealt with injury, this would’ve easily been another 20+ home run campaign, as the veteran is currently sporting career best quality of contact metrics across the board. To be more specific, over 141 batted ball events, he has a 113.2 mph max exit velocity, 14.2% barrel rate, and a strong 56% hard hit rate. In addition to this, his 97.8 mph average exit velocity on fly balls/line drives currently ranks 18th overall in MLB among batters with at least 100 batted ball events. So what exactly is fueling this newly found power?
He’s been destroying fastballs. He currently has 96.9 mph average exit velocity against fastballs, which is a career best mark by about four mph. Similarly to Joey Votto who’s also been mashing fastballs at a career best rate this season, Longoria is not taking it easy on any fastball that he sees. I don’t know what’s in the air, but these two have figured out the formula to developing more power as their careers have progressed. As long as he remains healthy, there will be nothing stopping Longoria from being a productive fantasy option over these last few weeks. Grab him and plug him into your utility spot if you’ve been searching for some free offensive upside.
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Deep Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 10% of ESPN leagues)
Rowan Wick RP, Cubs (7% rostered)
After missing most of the 2021 season with a lingering intercostal/left oblique injury, Wick is finally in a position to regularly receive save opportunities. Many fantasy players drafted Wick late in the drafts this past offseason hoping he’d receive some opportunities down the stretch and finally, his time has come. Thanks to some late-season heroics from players like Frank Schwindel, the Cubs have been competing more than people have expected given the fact that they’re in full rebuild mode. With that being the case, it isn’t hard to imagine Wick converting a couple more save opportunities before the season ends.
Armed with a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, and a cutter, Wick’s stuff won’t blow you away, but it’s definitely effective. Consistent command has never been his strength, but he throws enough strikes to get the job done. His role in 2022 remains to be seen, but as long as he stays healthy, Wick should remain the closer for the Cubs for the remainder of the 2021 season. If you’ve been searching for a free relief pitching option, Wick might be the most ideal option available.
Jackson Kowar SP, Royals (2% rostered)
To say Kowar’s MLB career started off on a sour note would be an understatement. Over his first 2 career innings pitched, he allowed eight runs on eight hits while sporting an inadequate ⅕ K/BB. Has was sent back down to Triple-A in late June, but he was recalled on September 1st and performed well against Cleveland. Over six innings, he allowed two runs on five hits while striking out six and walking three. It was easily the best start of his young career. His four-seamer topped out at 98 mph, as he was primarily a four-seam fastball, changeup pitcher in this one. He’ll likely slowly ramp up his breaking pitches’ usages, but he appears set on establishing his four-seamer and changeup early in his career -- and I don’t blame him.
Kowar’s changeup is already one of the best in MLB. It sits mid-80s and it has devastating late movement to it. Even more, Kowar knows how to effectively tunnel his four-seamer and changeup given his relatively consistent arm slot and release point. You can’t help but start to think about Chris Paddack when analyzing Kowar, but Paddacks command and control skills are well ahead of Kowar’s. All in all, it’s possible Kowar struggles for the remainder of 2021. But his low ownership and tantalizing stuff will keep him on the fantasy radar for as long as he’s up and starting with the big league club.
Glenn Otto SP, Rangers (5% rostered)
When you take a glance at Otto’s minor league stats from 2021, it’s clear that he’s taken a step forward at age-25. Otto was originally drafted 152nd overall in the 2017 MLB Draft by the Yankees, but between 2017-2020, he only threw 91 ⅔ innings due to injury and of course, COVID-19 forcing the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season. Over those 91 ⅔ innings, he earned a 2.85 ERA (2.84 FIP) with a 112/48 K/BB (16.5% K-BB). He’s always been able to strikeout batters at a high rate, but his command and control skills haven’t been sharp.
Fortunately for him, the recent adjustments that he’s made to his mechanics when on the mound have helped him limit walks while racking up strikeouts at a higher rate. Over 95 ⅔ innings this season pitching between Double-A and Triple-A, Otto has a 3.20 ERA (2.48 FIP) with a wildly impressive 134/24 K/BB (28.9% K-BB). Long-term, it’s possible Otto ends up as a long reliever of some sort. But given the improvements he’s made this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him stick in a big league rotation for years to come. He’ll be a risky option for the remainder of 2021, but he’s widely available and has already shown he’s capable of producing at the MLB level.
