MLB is back!
After a tumultuous offseason, the 2022 MLB regular season has commenced just a week after it originally should’ve. With top prospects making Opening Day rosters, established veterans looking to reclaim high-end fantasy status, and sleepers ready to help boost fantasy teams everywhere, there’s certainly a lot to look forward to in 2022. Moreover, it’ll be interesting to see how various league-wide trends or changes could affect your fantasy teams.
Will league-wide stolen base totals continue to decrease? Will the Orioles moving back their left field wall help pitchers and hurt hitters? Will MLB alter the baseballs? Will the universal DH ultimately be a positive change? There are plenty of storylines to monitor, but all in all, we’re all just happy that MLB is back in action.
Now, in last season’s points league waiver wire articles, I always chose a handful of players to target in normal points leagues and deep points leagues, and this year’s weekly piece will follow a similar format. With the season having just begun, there are an abundance of intriguing waiver wire options sitting on most waiver wires. Some of these options won’t help you much, but others could end up being league-winners. In my first points league waiver wire article of 2022, I’ll be diving into several players who I think you should be targeting in your points leagues today.
Points Leagues
(Players rostered in under 50 percent of ESPN leagues)
Gavin Lux SS/2B, Dodgers (28 percent rostered)
With AJ Pollock in Chicago and the designated hitter in the National League, the only thing stopping Gavin Lux from playing on a regular basis in 2022 is himself (and injuries). At just 24-years-old, the former first round selection and 2019 Minor League Player of the Year (Baseball America) has an entire career ahead of him. Oftentimes, people want to see young talented prospects perform at a high level right out of the gate, but those just aren’t realistic expectations. Every young player has a different makeup, a different mindset, and different circumstances surrounding the beginning of their MLB careers. Bet on the talent and wait for the results.
Coming into 2022, over the first 473 at-bats of his MLB career (144 games), Lux had a .233/.314/.368 slash line, 12 home runs, and an 88% steal rate (7-of-8). As a prospect, Lux was known for his above average bat speed, plus raw power, line-drive approach, plus hit tool, and his above average base-running skills (94th percentile sprint speed in 2021). We’ve seen glimpses of these tools in action at the MLB level, but it’s hard for a player to put it all together if they’re not playing consistently. If Lux continues to play regularly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him enjoy a true breakout campaign in 2022. Grab him now before everyone realizes just how valuable he could be. Worst-case scenario: we have to wait until 2023 or later to witness a Gavin Lux breakout season.
Hunter Greene SP, Reds (40 percent rostered)
When 17-year-old Hunter Greene was drafted second overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, he was already sitting 95-98 mph with his four-seam fastball. Fast-forward to 2021 and Greene was touching 105 mph with his fastball. 105 mph. Only two other players in MLB history have thrown a 105 mph fastball: Jordan Hicks and Aroldis Chapman.
Aside from his overpowering fastball, Greene’s delivery is clean and he throws from a typical three-quarters arm slot. Additionally, he possesses a slider that sits mid-80s – his go-to secondary offering – and a changeup that will help him attack left-handed hitters. He has the makeup to be a perennial high-end fantasy, and real-life, starter. Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the entire 2019 season, and no minor leaguers played in 2020 because of the pandemic, but over 179 career minor league innings pitched, Greene had a 3.97 ERA (3.48 FIP) and a strong 22.7% K-BB.
Due to the fact that he’s only thrown 106 ⅓ professional innings since 2018, the likelihood of Greene exceeding 100 innings pitched in 2022 seems slim. Nevertheless, he has great stuff, solid control and command skills, and the opportunity to be a helpful fantasy asset this season. His first career MLB start is scheduled for Sunday, April 10th at the Braves, but it may be wise to make sure he’s on your roster beforehand. Pitching is king in (most) points leagues, so you should be jumping on every pitcher who could help you rack up fantasy points.
Carlos Carrasco SP, Mets (24 percent rostered)
I know that Carlos Carrasco had a 6.04 ERA over 53 ⅔ innings pitched in 2021, but I don’t believe that that properly represents who he currently is. A torn right hamstring resulted in him making only 12 starts in 2021 and back in 2019, a devastating diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (a type of blood-cell cancer) limited him to just 80 innings pitched. Then, this past offseason, he underwent surgery to remove a bone fragment from his right elbow. Needless to say, the last few years have been a grueling experience for the 35-year-old veteran. Thankfully, he’s now reportedly feeling healthy and ready to help the Mets win.
Armed with a four-seam fastball that sits 92-95 mph, a changeup, a slider, a sinker, and a curveball, Carrasco has always had the stuff to succeed at the MLB level. From 2014-2018 (856 innings pitched), Carrasco had a 3.27 ERA (3.05 SIERA), a 48.6% groundball rate, and a 22.3% K-BB. He was one of the best pitchers in MLB over that time span, but as I previously touched, things took a turn for the worst starting in 2019. If he manages to rediscover – or even comes close to rediscovering – his 2014-2018 form, he could end up being one of the best fantasy bargains of the 2022 season. Rostered in just 24 percent of ESPN leagues, there’s still time to acquire him. Imagine a scenario where Carrasco rediscovers his 2014-2018 form. You just picked up a fantasy SP1/2 off the waiver wire. When it comes to waiver wire breakouts, you have to act early or you risk getting left behind.
Josh Lowe OF, Rays (11 percent rostered)
Predicting how much playing time a Rays hitting prospect will receive is a challenging task – unless we’re talking about Wander Franco. Just last season, many expected Vidal Bruján to have some fantasy relevance. Unfortunately, between receiving irregular playing time and failing to perform right away, Bruján’s disappointed a lot of fantasy managers in 2021. I don’t think that will be the case for the 24-year-old slugger in 2022.
Standing at a 6-foot-4 and weighing in at 205 pounds, Josh Lowe’s imposing stature matched with his plus raw power, above average speed, and strong defensive skills should allow him to be a legit everyday player in time. His overall hit tool has some holes, but this is a guy who could reach double digit home runs and steals at his peak. In his latest minor league season, he gave us a nice glimpse of this upside. In 2021, playing in Triple-A, Lowe slashed .291/.381/.535 with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 402 at-bats.
He’s started in both of the Rays’ games to begin the season and he’s gone 2-for-6 with two walks and a triple. That triple left his bat at 106.7 mph. He’ll likely strike out at an above average clip as his sample size grows, but his power and speed should help compensate for his shaky plate discipline and pitch recognition skills. Given his current rostership percentage, Lowe makes for a typical low-risk, high-reward waiver wire pickup.
Deep Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 10 percent of ESPN leagues)
Robinson Cano 2B, Mets (9 percent rostered)
Over 2,236 career games (8,680 at-bats), Robinson Canó has a 6.5% walk rate, 12.6% strikeout rate, and a .303/.352/.491 slash line. He’s one of the best all-around second basemen of all time. Unfortunately, his legacy has been somewhat tainted because of illegal substance use over the past few seasons. In 2018, he was suspended for 80 games for using furosemide. Then, in late 2020, he was suspended for the entire 2021 season for using stanozolol. Because of these suspensions, the pandemic in 2020, and injuries, Canó has played in just 236 games since 2018. At 39-years-old, it’s fair to wonder if 2022 will be Canó’s final season. If it is, I’m sure that Canó would like to go out with a bang.
With the designated hitter now in the National League, Canó could see semi-regular playing time all season, as long as he stays healthy. In 2020, Canó slashed .316/.352/.544 with strong quality of contact metrics over 171 at-bats. He’s not getting any younger, but the skills are still there. If he can reach just 300 at-bats, he could be a rather useful depth piece in deep points leagues. If he manages to exceed 400 at-bats, he could be a useful depth piece in all points leagues. Don’t overlook Canó because he hasn’t played a full season in a while. There’s still value to be had here.
Seth Beer DH, Diamondbacks (6 percent rostered)
Remember when Seth Beer hit a walk-off home run on National Beer Day just a few days ago? Baseball truly is magical. The 25-year-old slugger played mostly at first base in 2021 when he was in Triple-A. But with Christian Walker occupying first base at the big league level, Beer will likely see most of his playing time at DH in 2022 – which could actually be a more optimal designation for Beer. Given the raw power in his bat, allowing him to focus solely on hitting could help him develop faster at the plate. Moreover, Beer isn’t the best defender, so DH may be his ideal role regardless.
Armed with a swing that generates plenty of loft and decent on-base skills, walks, home runs, and extra-base hits will be Beer’s main avenues to fantasy relevance in points leagues as a major leaguer. Beer clubbed 16 home runs over 362 at-bats in 2021 playing in Triple-A and I think that he’s capable of reaching 30 home runs at his peak. I doubt that we see his peak in 2022, but the likelihood of him reaching double digit home runs is fairly high. If you’re looking for a dirt-cheap source of power in your deep points leagues, consider adding Beer. You might just stumble onto a power breakout.
