We’re now approaching the final week of the month, which means that we’re about to enter the last month of the 2022 season. As of late, we’re seeing top fantasy closers fall into closer-by-committee situations, star players nursing injuries, and first-time fantasy managers everywhere banging their heads against brick walls. If you’re a seasoned fantasy vet, you’re used to this madness. But if this is your first season playing fantasy baseball, you’re probably wondering if you want to play again in 2023. Well, here’s my advice to you first timers: play again.
Becoming a good fantasy player takes time; you won’t figure it all out in your first season. But if there’s anything that you should take into your future fantasy seasons, it’s the understanding of how valuable the waiver wire can be. In this week’s points league waiver wire column, I once again dove into six players who could be of assistance to your points league rosters. Let’s get into it.
Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 50 percent of ESPN leagues)
Brett Baty 3B, Mets (17 percent rostered)
A former 12th overall selection, Brett Baty is ready to make his mark in the big-leagues. In his early prospect days, Baty’s raw power was his clear-cut carrying tool – and it still is. But he also had a lot of swing-and-miss in his game as he habitually sold out for power. Fortunately for Baty and the Mets, as he’s garnered more experience, he’s been making more and more contact. As a result, he finished with a .292 batting average in 2021 (332 at-bats), and a .315 batting average in 2022 (362 at-bats). On top of that, his game power truly came to life this season playing in Double-A, as he clubbed 19 home runs over 340 at-bats. He’s going to hit for power in the majors while playing solid defense, but there are still some question marks surrounding his hit tool.
Baty made his MLB debut on August 17th, and in storybook-fashion, he hit a 377-foot solo home run. He hasn’t homered since, but his bat could still provide fantasy managers with a free late-season boost. The Mets have made him their everyday third baseman since his call-up, and that should remain the case until Eduardo Escobar returns. For the time being, he’s a worthwhile gamble.
Luis Rengifo SS/2B/3B, Angels (15 percent rostered)
Outside of his defensive versatility, there isn’t much to discuss regarding Luis Rengifo – well, until now. The 25-year-old has hit a career-high nine home runs over 320 at-bats in 2022. Additionally, he’s swiped a career-best five bags, and has the highest batting average of his major-league career (.269). What’s changed? His approach against breaking pitches.
Coming into the season, Rengifo never had a batting average greater than .169, or a weighted one-base average greater than .211 versus breaking pitches. Through 87 games in 2022, he has a .297 batting average (.240 xBA) and a .349 weighted on-base average (.288 wOBA) against breaking pitches. When you consider these changes, it’s easier to see why he’s been racking up hits at a career-high rate.
Now, his quality of contact metrics look similar to past seasons, as does his average sprint speed. However, he’s been hitting more fly balls, which has led to the majority of his home runs being pulled fly balls. Remember, you don’t have to have eye-popping quality of contact metrics to hit for power, you just need to put the ball in the air to your pull side at a reasonable clip. As long as he continues to perform well when facing breaking pitches, Rengifo should be of service in points leagues the rest of the way.
Jason Adam RP, Rays (15 percent rostered)
Recommending a Rays’ bullpen piece is a risky endeavor, but I’m not necessarily the most risk-averse fellow. The 31-year-old was a starter in the minor leagues, but through five major-league campaigns, he has yet to make a start. Now, while he’s never had trouble with striking batters out (career 29.6 percent strikeout rate), he has had issues with limiting walks – emphasis on “had.”
Through 53 appearances (49 ⅔ innings), Adam has a career-low 5.6 percent walk rate. He’s been undoubtedly more intentional with his pitch locations, and because of this, he has a career-high 44.1 percent zone rate. In other words, he’s been throwing more strikes than ever before. To be more specific, he’s been throwing strikes with his slider more than ever before – his best pitch. The Rays’ confidence in Adam seems high, as they’ve awarded him with three save opportunities since August 3rd. When you take into account his improvements on the mound and increased role with the Rays, you start to see a player who could be a rock-solid relief pitching option in points leagues for the remainder of the season.
Deep Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 10 percent of ESPN leagues)
Albert Pujols DH/1B, Cardinals (9 percent rostered)
What year is it? And even if we were somehow still in the early-to-mid 2000s, Albert Pujols would not be on the waiver wire. Truthfully, I never, ever expected to be recommending Pujols as a points league waiver wire pickup in 2022. But this is major league baseball, anything is possible.
Since the All-Star break, he’s 22-for-49 (.449) with seven home runs, three doubles, a 5.6 percent walk rate, and a 11.1 percent strikeout rate. Additionally, he has a 58.1 percent hard-hit rate and a ridiculous 20.9 percent barrel rate (43 batted ball events). That’s nine barreled baseballs in 43 batted ball events. Now, Statcast data has only been available since 2015, so it’s hard to say what Pujols’ quality of contact metrics looked like in his heyday. But so far in 2022, he’s simply been tearing the cover off the ball. I don’t know if it’s adrenaline or something else, but the future Hall of Famer is absolutely worth your time in deep points leagues.
Jake Fraley OF, Reds (7 percent rostered)
Since August 13th, Jake Fraley is 11-for-31 (.355) with six extra-base hits (four home runs), a 16.2 percent walk rate, and a 18.9 percent strikeout rate. The 27-year-old outfielder became an intriguing sleeper in fantasy land following the Reds’ preseason offensive sale. Unfortunately, he was placed on the injured list with a knee injury in late April. He began a rehab assignment in late May, but suffered a setback as he injured his toe. Then in late July, he finally returned to the lineup. The Reds don’t exactly have a set three in the outfield, so Fraley has had a clear path to playing time since his return.
Now, his recent production is certainly eye-catching, but is it real? It seems like it. Fraley is not a pure power hitter, rather he knows how to put the barrel on the baseball while pulling a fair amount of fly balls. This approach should help him continue to hit home runs. Beyond this, Fraley’s disciplined approach at the plate helps him draw plenty of walks, which in turn provides him with another avenue to scoring points in points leagues. And to ice the cake, there’s some stolen base upside here. All things considered, Fraley has the skill set to be a true points league contributor over these last few weeks.
Lars Nootbaar OF, Cardinals (7 percent rostered)
Since the beginning of August, Lars Nootbaar is hitting .315 with seven extra-base hits (two home runs), 15 runs scored, 10 RBI, two steals, and a strong 17/10 K/BB ratio. Where was this production all season? Well, he spent some time in Triple-A in late spring, early summer. And when he was with the big-league club, his playing time was sporadic. In other words, he wasn’t given enough opportunities early in the season. But that was before the Cardinals decided that they needed a spark at the top of their lineup, and Nootbaar has provided them with that spark as of late.
His plate discipline and quality of contact metrics, along with his batted ball tendencies, support what he’s been doing at the plate in August. He could begin to slow down soon, but I don’t see him abruptly becoming useless in fantasy. Over these final few weeks, Nootbaar could be a sneaky useful source of production in deep points leagues. Don’t overlook him, but at the same time, keep expectations realistic.
