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In this week’s “By The Numbers” breakdown, we are going to focus our analysis on pitch types. Specifically, the pitchers who have the most valuable offering for every pitch type this season. This is somewhat subjective based on the result you are looking to find, as a low-strikeout sinker is more valuable in real life than in fantasy.
The way in which each pitch type will be filtered will be by “run value,” which can be defined as the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, and the ball and strike count. This is to say that whenever a pitch is thrown, the current situation surrounding that instance has a higher or lower value based on variables. If Edwin Diaz comes into a game with the bases loaded in a one-run game, a strikeout with his slider will mean a lot more than a groundout from Kyle Hendricks to lead off the third.
You can find the run value stat on Baseball Savant if you would like to make your own comparisons after reading the article, but it’s important to note one thing: the overall run value is a compilation statistic. The more opportunities a pitcher has to produce, the more impact it can have on the overall run value score. This is why we are also going to look at RV/100, which simply stands for run value over 100 pitches. This will give us not only the pitchers who have earned the highest run value score so far this season but those who are the most impactful per pitch.[[ad:athena]]
How can you use this information? It’s a great way to see how valuable or detrimental certain pitches are to a player’s arsenal. This can give you a glimpse at how a pitcher is being successful and how a mix change may impact future production.
(All RV/100 candidates are minimum 120 pitches thrown)
Four-Seam Fastball
Trevor Bauer, Dodgers
Run Value Leader: -17 RV
The controversial right-hander has built a reputation (on the field) due to his relentless efforts to improve his craft through science and training. In 2020, Bauer held the highest average spin rate in baseball for a four-seam fastball at 2779 RPM. This was a 350 RPM increase from the previous season, a jump that many (including Bauer) have stated is unlikely to occur without “assistance” from a foreign substance.
In 2018 Bauer accused the Houston Astros pitching staff of enhancing their spin rates through the use of illegal substances to grip the ball. The 30-year-old went on to say that he himself could increase his own spin rate easily, but that he wouldn’t because of his own moral compass.
It’s possible that Bauer’s conscience has a jurisdiction because in 2020 the right-hander saw massive gains that led to having the highest average spin on four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and knuckles curves (second in cutter spin rate) in all of major league baseball. Either the right-hander joined the Astros’ methods of increasing his own spin rate or he has unlocked a way to increase spin naturally and drastically through training after stating in the past that it was an impossibility.
Hitters generated a meager .237 wOBA against the four-seamer which, in addition to the rest of his amazing arsenal, helped Bauer post a 1.73 ERA and a 36 percent strikeout rate. Long story short, Bauer had a highly effective fastball last season and earned himself a Cy Young award and a three-year $102 million contract for his efforts.
Bauer has further increased his four-seam spin rate from 2779 RPM to 2844 so far this season. This is a modest jump of 65 RPM, but a 415 RPM increase from 2019. The offering has generated a 36 percent strikeout rate, 26.1 percent whiff rate, and a 10.5 percent swinging-strike rate.
The 94 percent active spin rate, or spin efficiency, has allowed Bauer’s four-seam fastball to produce increased “ride” over the past two seasons. This is the vertical movement that gives opposing hitters that illusion that the baseball is rising, thus making it difficult to square up and drive. Once the hitter makes the decision to swing they do not have enough time to adjust when the ball arrives an inch or more higher than anticipated. This leads to weak contact in the form of pop-ups or easy fly balls, rather than line drives and barrels.
Despite being thrown in the zone 56.3 percent of the time, which is 2.3 points higher than last season, Bauer has seen a 3.6 point drop in Z-Contact (in-zone contact). Overall the pitch holds a 16.3 pVAL on Fangraphs and is currently the most valuable pitch in baseball according to the Baseball Savant Run Value metric, edging out a few standout offerings that will be discussed very soon.
Tyler Rogers, Giants
RV/100 Standout: -4.2 RV/100
Tyler Rogers is off to an incredible start this season, posting a 0.70 ERA (as of Monday) with a 0.82 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings. The most amazing thing about the right-hander, aside from his submarine delivery, is the fact that he is nearly impossible to barrel. Seriously, his barrel rate is currently zero percent after being zero percent in 2019 and 1.2 percent in 2020.
The only flaw, at least from a fantasy perspective, is the lack of strikeouts. Rogers has just 13 punchouts across 25 2/3 innings (13 percent). However, due to the arm slot, location, and speed, Rogers throws a very heavy four-seam fastball due to gravity that induces a ton of weak contact.
(below is a chart showcasing spin-based versus observed movement)
When you have a slider capable of nearly leading the league in pop-ups while also tossing a heavy fastball that is capable of leading the league in ground balls, you are very dangerous.
Sinker
Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
Run Value Leader: -7 RV
The race for run value leader for a sinker was very close between Woodruff and his teammate Adrian Houser. In fact, Corbin Burnes shows up as the second-highest average spin rate for a sinker among qualified pitchers. Milwaukee is apparently the sinker capital of the United States.
Woodruff uses a five-pitch mix to get hitters out: four-seam (35.4 percent), sinker (27.1 percent), slider (14.7 percent), curveball (11.7 percent), and a changeup (11.2 percent). The right-hander’s primary putaway pitches are the four-seam fastball and slider, but the sinker does generate 54.5 percent ground balls.
As you may have guessed, this is not Brandon Woodruff’s best pitch, In fact, by many metrics, it may be his worst pitch, but with a 6.7 pVAL it is very valuable due to its ability to induce weak contact and erase baserunners via the double play.
The right-hander altered his mechanics over the offseason to shorten his arm action, which is now known as the “Giolito Adjustment,” in addition to changing the shape on his offspeed/breaking pitches. Woodruff’s slider, curve, and changeup all have drastically more vertical movement due to increased spin efficiency on the curve (Magnus effect) and increased deviation in spin/movement tilt on his changeup (seam-shifted wake).
(below is a chart showcasing spin-based versus observed movement)
Long story short, Brandon Woodruff has been one of the most effective pitchers in baseball this season and while his sinker may grade out as the run value leader to date, his success is due to how the righty uses his entire arsenal.
Chris Rodríguez, Angels
RV/100 Standout: -4/3 RV/100
The 22-year-old is currently on the injured list with shoulder inflammation but is nearing a return to the Angels bullpen. Rodriguez has worked in a high leverage role for Anaheim all season due to his high whiff curveball and 96-plus miles per hour sinker.
(below is a chart showcasing spin-based versus observed movement)
Opponents are batting .139 with a .167 slugging percentage against the right-hander’s sinking fastball with a 23.1 percent whiff rate (which is solid for a two-seam offering).
Angels manager Joe Maddon has stated that he feels Rodriguez has what it takes to be a frontline starter due to the effectiveness of the righty’s changeup. However, it is likely that Rodriguez will stick in the bullpen so that his innings and workload can be managed due to his injury history.
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Changeup
Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Run Value Leader: -9 RV
RV/100 Standout: -6 RV/100
Gerrit Cole is both the current total run value and RV/100 leader at the moment among changeups. Throughout his successful career, the Yankees ace has used a primary three-pitch arsenal of a four-seam fastball, slider, and curveball. Cole’s changeup was mostly a cosmetic pitch used primarily against left-handed batters in 2020. (see chart below)
This season Cole is using the changeup 15 percent of the time and nearly equally to both left-handers and right-handers. (see chart below)
The pitch, by most measurements, is no different than the one thrown in previous seasons. Cole’s velocity, spin rate, and movement are all in close proximity to what he has thrown before. The big difference is the pitch mix and sequencing in which the 30-year-old has utilized the changeup.
The righty still lives on the four-seam fastball, more specifically his ability to get ahead with it and use the four-seam to set up the rest of his arsenal. When Cole gets ahead during an at-bat, he now has another dominant pitch to put away opposing hitters (especially left-handers).
The change is currently Cole’s most valuable offering in pitch value, despite being thrown just 15 percent of the time, and is the right-hander’s offering with the highest whiff rate.
Curveball
Tejay Antone, Reds
Run Value Leader: -7 RV
RV/100 Standout: -5.5 RV/100
Tejay Antone is the second pitcher to sweep both categories in run value, but this time it is for his standout curveball.
The Reds’ right-hander currently boasts a 1.93 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and a ridiculous 36 percent strikeout rate over 21 1/3 innings this season. The 27-year-old was actually quoted as admitting to trying to strike every single hitter out, “Absolutely. There’s no other choice. I’m trying to strike out every single person, in every situation.” That is a fantastic answer.
Why allow luck and variance to come into play during a batted ball event when you can simply strike every hitter out? Tejay Antone is a hero.
All joking aside, Antone finished the 2020 season with two of the most effective breaking pitches in baseball with his slider and curveball. However, the righty led the way with a sinking fastball that was thrown 40.6 percent of the time with the breaking pitches trailing behind. (see chart below)
This season the Reds reliever has leaned his pitch mix to rely further on his star breaking balls, (which is nothing new for Cincinnati pitchers) with the curveball now leading the way at 34.9 percent (up from 16.7 percent in 2020)
Antone has increased the rate at which he throws his curveball in the zone this season at 67.4 percent, compared to 50.5 percent last year. However, Z-contact (contact within the strike zone) has dropped from 81.5 percent to 68.3 percent. The pitch generates a 23.8 percent O-Swing rate, which is not ideal, but Antone is having success within the zone in 2021 so you need to judge the success of the pitch in how it is being used.
Above is a chart of swings and misses on Tejay’s curveball this season, and you will notice most are within the strike zone. It’s possible that Antone could be even more effective if he pitched out of the zone, but as a reliever, this approach fits the role and makes him very dominant.
Cutter
Corbin Burnes, Brewers
Run Value Leader: -7 RV
If you have been paying attention this season, Corbin Burnes leading the way in cutter run value should not be a surprise. The Brewers’ co-ace is carrying a 1.79 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, and 44.7 strikeout rate over 40 1/3 innings this season despite missing time with COVID.
The right-hander is in the top one percent of the league in xwOBA, xwOBAcon, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and xERA. Not to mention that he’s in the top three percent in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and hard-hit rate. After failing to qualify for the 2020 Cy Young award due to a late-season oblique strain, Burnes came out of the gate healthy and dominant to start 2021.
After making a game-changing decision to abandon his four-seam fastball (52.5 percent to 1.3 percent) in favor of a sinker (3.7 percent to 33.1 percent) as his workhorse pitch last season, Burnes made yet another change this year to lean heavily on his cut fastball as his primary weapon. The 26-year-old went from mixing in his cutter as 31.5 percent of his arsenal in 2020 to utilizing it 53.6 percent of the time so far this season, and the results speak for themselves.
At 95.5 miles per hour, Burnes has one of the hardest cutters (if not the hardest) in baseball. The right-hander had success in the past with his four-seamer since it had a natural cutting movement to it, but it was very inconsistent. Milwaukee decided to try and harness the success and swing and miss potential by experimenting with hand placement and grip which resulted in Burnes’ new cutter.
The newly unveiled cut fastball has an elite 38.3 percent O-Swing rate, 74.8 percent Z-Contact and 16.9 percent swinging-strike rate. Burnes has an amazing arsenal of pitches that includes a slider that generates a 62.2 percent whiff rate and a curveball that generates a 58.3, but with a 9.7 pVAL, Corbin Burnes’ cutter is one of the best pitches in the league.
Kenley Jansen, Dodgers
RV/100 Standout: -4 RV/100
The cut fastball has always been Kenley Jansen’s bread and butter, so it’s hardly a surprise that it would show up among the leaders in run value. The Dodgers closer has regained the dominant results that made him one of the elite ninth-inning arms in the game for years, carrying a 1.31 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with a 30.4 percent strikeout rate.
However, there is one slight issue. Jansen has a 17.9 percent walk rate with the cutter this season and a 19 percent walk rate overall. Luckily these extra baserunners have yet to really put a drag on the 33-year-old’s fantasy value.
The reason Jansen has been able to overcome the extra bases on balls this season is partly (mostly) due to rediscovering his lost velocity (touching 94-95 miles per hour) that went into hibernation last year. The right-hander credits Dodgers’ Director of Athletics Development and Performance, Brandon McDaniel, for a new offseason regimen that focused more on agility than strength.
The other big change that the Dodgers closer has made is a tweak to his overall pitch mix. Jansen is still leading the charge with his cut fastball, but he is throwing it far less frequently. Back in 2018, the righty was throwing the cutter 83.6 percent of the time, which has gradually decreased to his current mark of 59.7 percent this season. Jansen wanted to keep the hitters off balance by mixing in his sinker more and it has resulted in his cutter being more productive in the zone. Z-Contact (contact within the strike zone) has dropped over 10 percentage points from a year ago from 77.9 percent to just 67.2 percent. That is the lowest mark Jansen has produced on this pitch since 2011.
A current 10 wRC+ off Kenley Jansen’s cutter is very impressive, but a .174 BABIP is unlikely to be maintained over a full season. There is every reason to believe that the Dodgers’ righty will continue to perform well, but those walks are likely to catch up with him at some point.
Slider
Yu Darvish, Padres
Run Value Leader: -12 RV
When talking about Yu Darvish it is sometimes difficult to narrow down the conversation to one pitch. After all, the brand-new Padres ace throws seven pitches in his arsenal and all of them are good. However, since we are here for a reason we are going to zero in on the right-hander’s slider.
Oddly enough, this is the poorest that Darvish’s slider has performed in his career, as a single pitch, by most advanced metrics. However, as you can see above, the pitch has been almost impossible to hit with 16.3 inches of horizontal break.
Darvish is off to one of the best starts in his career with the lowest barrel rate against and second-lowest hard-hit rate he has ever posted.
Alex Reyes, Cardinals
RV/100 Standout: -5.7 RV/100
I think I speak for mostly everyone, aside from some National League Central fans when I say that it has been fantastic to watch Alex Reyes work this year. The former top prospect has had his career put on hold time and again due to injuries and setbacks and we have finally seen a prolonged period with the 26-year-old showcasing his talent on the grand stage.
Due to workload concerns, Reyes has been used exclusively out of the bullpen this season, and due to surrounding circumstances he has found himself in the closer role with no one looking over his shoulder. The right-hander has been dominant all season and currently sits at number two among the National League leaders for saves.
Reyes currently boasts a 0.72 ERA with 34 strikeouts over 25 innings, albeit with a 20.6 percent walk rate. That is not ideal when added to an impossible to maintain 94.9 left on-base percentage. These variables will come back to bite the Cardinals closer at some point, but the results should still leave Reyes as an incredible pitcher.
The St. Louis right-hander has been close to unhittable with a lot of the credit going to his slider, which generates an incredible 56.9 percent whiff rate and 48.8 percent put away rate. Reyes has earned a strikeout rate of 58.8 percent with this offering alone due to a 37.5 percent O-Swing, 45.1 percent contact rate, and 22.4 percent swinging-strike rate. Talk about unhittable. Opposing batters need a boat paddle to make solid contact with Alex Reyes’ slider.
Splitter
Kevin Gausman, Giants
Run Value Leader: -9 RV
RV/100 Standout: -2.9 RV/100
The former fourth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft has seen a career of ups and downs, similar to Alex Reyes. Kevin Gausman is now on his fourth major league team with a career ERA of 4.11 and 1.30 WHIP, but it feels like his career is just getting started.
The 30-year-old was able to unlock lost velocity last season with the Giants that had been dormant since 2017 which allowed Gausman to utilize his four-seam fastball in a way that made the rest of his arsenal, including his devastating splitter, even more effective. The right-hander, in what has seemed like the perfect move, accepted a qualifying offer to return to San Francisco for the 2021 season in what has been his official breakout.
The split-finger fastball is the trademark pitch for which Kevin Gausman is now known. In the past, the Giants ace relied on his splitter to be his putaway pitch but he did not have a secondary offering to keep opposing hitters honest. This is where the revamped four-seam fastball comes into play. Since 2018 Gausman’s fastball has earned a pVAL of -6.7, -4.6, and 2.8. This season the righty has earned a 12.4 pVAL on his four-seam fastball, technically making it his most valuable pitch (second-highest run value in baseball).
However, we are interested in talking about his most dominant weapon rather than his workhorse pitch. Gausman’s splitter carries a nasty 45.5 percent O-Swing rate, 54.2 percent contact rate, and an absurd 25.9 percent swinging-strike rate.
The veteran righty holds two top-five pitches in run value across the entire league right now, making him one of the most dangerous pitchers on the planet.
