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The leaguewide power pace has held stable in recent weeks. Sluggers added another 246 home runs over the previous seven days, bolstering the seasonal pace by an additional 16 home runs. We’re now on track for 5,871 home runs. With one-quarter of the season remaining, the arbitrary 6,000 home run plateau will require heroic efforts to reach.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
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Top Performances of the Week
Matt Chapman, 5 HR
Max Muncy, 5 HR
Teoscar Hernandez, 4 HR
Avisail Garcia, 4 HR
14 Others, 3 HR
There’s nothing especially remarkable about our four top performers. They’re the sort of power hitters we expect to occasionally binge for four or more dingers. If anything stands out, it’s that they all accomplished the feat in 26 or fewer plate appearances.
Chapman’s week potentially salvaged a difficult season. He’s edged his .225/.320/.402 batting line into positive territory. He’s now on pace to deliver a mid-20s home run total too. As of last week, he had a powerless .216/.314/.366 triple-slash and a mere 14 home runs. His season has been comprised of two brief hot streaks and two lengthy slumps. With luck, he’ll avoid a third deep slump and finish the year exactly as projected.
In his age 30 season, Muncy has found yet another gear by trimming strikeouts and posting career bests in exit velocity and barrel rate. He has at times found himself in our Top 10 Projected Leaders section although a couple brief injuries sapped him of the plate appearances to stay there for long. Perhaps he’ll return this week? Stay tuned!
Hernandez is another guy who might be on pace for 40 dingers if he hadn’t missed 19 of the Blue Jays games. He too has trimmed his strikeout rate, although it’s not clear what he’s done to accomplish this feat. The only obvious explanation is simple enough if not precisely satisfying. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone has surged. None of the other indicators for a change of approach have shifted. If I had to guess, the lowered pitching quality in the AL East and leaguewide might have something to do with it.
Garcia has already set a career-high home run. While he struggled earlier in his career, his approach is tailor made for the current pitching meta. He mashes pitches up in the strike zone. This career-long zone chart of his isolated power demonstrates his nitro zone aptly. He wants the ball elevated and away from his hands. Lately, the Brewers have faced several fly ball pitchers.
Of the triple-dinger crowd, all but one is a power hitter of some repute like Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, or Luke Voit. The outlier is Jake Meyers who was recently profiled in The Fringes as part of our Season Pass. Meyers has a set of traits which should yield a positive big league future. He’s already demonstrated above average exit velocities and 97th-percentile sprint speed. His discipline and contact skills are roughly league average. In the short term, he’ll have to battle a soon-to-return Kyle Tucker and hot-hitting Chas McCormick for playing time.
My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels, 40 HR, 51 projected
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays, 36 HR, 45 proj
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, 34 HR, 42 proj
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics, 31 HR, 42 proj
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals, 32 HR, 41 proj
Joey Gallo, New York Yankees, 29 HR, 41 proj
Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays, 29 HR, 38 proj
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians, 28 HR, 37 proj
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays, 29 HR, 37 proj
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, 27 HR, 37 proj
Ohtani won the race to 40 home runs. Barring an absurd finish, Roger Maris’ pre-PEDs home run record appears to be safe. Will Ohtani make it to 50 homers? He’s on pace and projects to do so. Tatis returned with a roar. Shifting to the outfield will hopefully aid in his quest to avoid further damage to his shoulder. He’ll pay the toll later in his career – that’s often the way with shoulder injuries.
Perez has neck discomfort which could bounce him out of the Top 10 if he’s unable to recover quickly. Down on the lower edge of the Top 10, Semien and Lowe fought their way back into the limelight with Nelson Cruz and Rafael Devers dropping out. Semien projects for 37.53 home runs compared with 37.47 for Ramirez, 37.41 for Lowe, and 37.14 for Judge. Cruz, Muncy, and Devers also project for 37 home runs. It’s a tight battle.
Injured Sluggers
New
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros, COVID-list, soon
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds, intercostal strain, September
Eric Haase, Detroit Tigers, ab strain, unknown
Tyrone Taylor, Milwaukee Brewers, oblique strain, unknown
Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals, wrist, 8/24
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays, knee, September
The Astros plan to activate Tucker early this week. His return will create a bit of a logjam in Houston’s suddenly talented outfield. The loss of Winker is a cruel blow to the Reds who have dealt with so many lengthy injuries this season. Intercostal strains have a knack for lingering. Haase is already performing advanced baseball activities including catching bullpens and taking batting practice. It seems the IL-stint wasn’t strictly necessary. Carlson is due back on Tuesday. As with the Astros, the Cardinals will have a crowded outfield picture when he returns thanks to the emergence of Lars Nootbaar. Springer seemingly can’t catch a break, although manager Charlie Montoyo said he’s “doing better than we thought.” That seemingly indicates an early-September return. Taylor injured himself Friday night. We’ll know more about the severity of his injury in the coming days.
Existing
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies, groin, soon
Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs, knee, 8/22
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees, thumb, late-August
Javier Baez, New York Mets, back, late-August
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers, hip, mid-August
Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays, neck discomfort, mid-August
Ramon Laureano, Oakland Athletics, PEDs, out for season
Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins, sprained elbow, out for season
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins, wrist surgery, out for season
Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Guardians, knee strain, September
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets, oblique, late-August
Ronald Acuna, Atlanta Braves, knee, out for season
Miguel Andujar, New York Yankees, hand, August
Clint Frazier, New York Yankees, head, August
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox, calf strain, early-September
Eddie Rosario, Atlanta Braves, abdominal strain, mid-August
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels, hip surgery, out for season
Willie Calhoun, Texas Rangers, fractured forearm, September
Daniel Vogelbach, Milwaukee Brewers, hamstring/foot, September
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins, fractured hand, August
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros, quad, early-August
Kyle Garlick, Minnesota Twins, hernia, status unknown
Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers, separated shoulder, out for season?
Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners, knee, September
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves, domestic violence, out for season?
Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees, wrist strain, out for season
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, calf, September
Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds, knee surgery, unknown
Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers, knee surgery, season-ending
Quite a few players are nearing a return. Hoskins was almost activated yesterday and could get the call today. Contreras is expected back on Sunday. Baez and Lindor could give the Mets a much-needed shot in the arm on Tuesday. The Four B’s: Betts, Biggio, Bregman, and Buxton are all rehabbing and could be recalled by the middle of this week. The Blue Jays seem to be slow playing Biggio’s rehab stint to see if they can get his bat going against weaker opponents.
Senzel had a setback. He’s experiencing pain in his surgically repaired knee. Vogelbach hurt his foot while recovering from his hamstring strain. He’ll need extra time too.
Returned to Action
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles, concussion
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees, COVID
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees, COVID
Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants, shoulder
Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros, stiff neck
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, separate shoulder
As we’ve discussed already, Tatis returned without missing a beat. Rizzo joins Luke Voit in what could be the most embarrassingly rich first base platoon of the century. It’s nice to see Mountcastle quickly shake off his concussion. He’s having a solid under-the-radar season. Longoria is already nursing another injury.
For more injury updates, check out our MLB Injury Report.
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Power Spotlight
Chances are you either haven’t heard of Yohel Pozo or at least hadn’t prior to this week. In late-May, FanGraphs rated him the 56th prospect… in the Rangers farm system. That ranking along with non-rankings from virtually every other prospecting outlet could look foolish in a few years.
Pozo, 24, is a backup catcher with enough bat to find his way into other roles. The Rangers are using him as a designated hitter when he’s not catching. He’s an aggressive hitter with a simple, compact swing built for contact. He flies under the radar because his top end power isn’t especially impressive. He won’t be confused with Salvador Perez despite a similarly hacktastic approach. He also won’t strike out nearly as often as the Royals face of the franchise. That tradeoff might just be enough to ensure Pozo a healthy career.
His profile is such that he can be expected to lift over 40 percent of his contact in the air. His swing is leveraged such that a 15 percent home run to fly ball ratio is a reasonable, conservative estimate. The variable that could prove difficult to anticipate is his rate of balls in play. Judging by his minor league track record, he might finish upwards of 85 percent of his plate appearances with a ball in play. Even if he settles around a four percent walk and 16 percent strikeout rate, he’ll project to deliver 33.5 home runs per 650 plate appearances.
It should be noted, this is a profile prone to exploitable flaws. His home run power is pull side. A video of his first home run can teach us a lot about his swing. He looks comfortable on pitches up and in, and his minor league stats reveal similar comfort using the opposite field for singles and doubles. I would look to attack him both down-and-in and up-and-away, either of which might be revealed as holes in his swing. I expect he’ll mostly hit wormburners to third base on pitches down-and-in while lazy fly balls might be the result up-and-away. Whether or not Major League pitchers succeed in discovering an exploit, Pozo appears to be the best free source of power at the catcher position since Yermin Mercedes caught fire in April.