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Welcome to the debut edition of Dynasty Dispatch. This will be my new weekly column for NBC Sports EDGE after I’ve spent the past 12 seasons writing Waiver Wired. I have passed the torch to Ryan Boyer on that one, so those in redraft leagues are going to be in good hands indeed. However, I felt it was time to give proper attention to what has become my favorite way to play fantasy baseball.
To borrow a (loaded) phrase from the 76ers, what appeals to me about dynasty formats is “The Process.” I’m addicted to it. In an ideal world, you’ll be in it to win it every year, but in this format there’s still a way to find enjoyment and utilize strategy even if you are near the bottom of the standings in a given year. Finding win-now players you can flip to contenders, collecting draft picks for the next season, taking chances on interesting prospects; it’s all part of the deal. The same goes for deciding the right time to make a run and knowing the right time to blow things up. It’s a different animal than the standard fantasy set-up and I’m excited to bring my experience to this space.
I’m honestly not sure what this column will become, but we’ll try some different topics each week for now. Get your dynasty league questions to me at @djshort on Twitter and maybe we’ll do a mailbag or two along the way this season.
New Rules
Compared to recent history, we have seen an unprecedented number of top prospects populate Opening Day rosters. Going by Christopher Crawford’s prospect rankings here at NBC Sports EDGE, three out of his top four prospects (Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Spencer Torkelson) got the call to the show. It likely would have been the entire top-five if Adley Rutschman and Riley Greene didn’t get hurt.
Of course, that’s just the tip of the iceberg with this talented rookie class, as C.J. Abrams (No. 6 on Crawford’s list, by the way), Joshua Lowe, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Bryson Stott are among the top prospects beginning the season in the majors.
What’s going on here, anyway? You can thank the new collective bargaining agreement for that, with the introduction of the “Prospect Promotion Incentive.” It’s important to familiarize yourself with this information moving forward. It’s going to change dynasty strategy in many ways.
Key Points:
1) Teams can receive an extra draft pick based on how a rookie (a player with fewer than 60 days of MLB service time and a top 100 prospect by two or more of Baseball America, ESPN.com, or MLB.com) performs over time
2) Teams will be eligible if a player on the Opening Day roster wins the Rookie of the Year or top-three in MVP or Cy Young Award balloting in his pre-arbitration seasons
3) There are additional incentives if an international draft is implemented; that’s TBD for now
4) Teams can receive a maximum of one pick per year and three for the player’s career
5) Any eligible prospect who finishes Top-2 in Rookie of the Year balloting will receive a full year of major league service regardless of when he was promoted in a specific season
Obviously the top-four are in contrast to the last item here. There’s a team incentive attached to the great majority of these changes, though it also benefits the player in many cases. Ultimately, it’s a compromise, with hopefully some good outcomes for young players who will be rewarded for contributing right away.
The key thing to consider with this new landscape is how this will impact the timing of call-ups for prospects who haven’t been called up to the majors yet. Normally we’ve been accustomed to seeing prospects begin to trickle to the majors a few weeks into the season due to service time manipulation, but these new guidelines could change the calculus.
For instance, if Oneil Cruz is called up in mid-May and puts up a monster showing en route to winning the National League Rookie of the Year — the National League field of rookies isn’t as deep as the American League, mind you — he would reap all the benefits (full year of major league service) while the Pirates would not get an extra draft pick. Does this mean that a whole class of prospects will have their debuts pushed back to June or July to avoid the possibility of that player winning Rookie of the Year? Contenders might be willing to take the chance, but for rebuilding clubs, it’s a legitimate question.
From the dynasty league perspective, these early-season promotions are providing some unexpected juice to fantasy rosters. But if it becomes the norm moving forward, it does impact strategy. Last year served as a reminder that nothing is guaranteed in terms of rookie performance, but it’s tempting for a long-rebuilding dynasty league manager to shift into contention mode knowing that you’ll have these players from the jump. It’s another wrinkle in “The Process” which makes dynasty leagues so interesting.
Dynasty Risers
To close things out with this first edition of Dynasty Dispatch, below you’ll find a few players who are moving up my ranks coming out of spring training as well as one I’m cautiously optimistic is getting back on track.
Tylor Megill SP, Mets
It took an injury to Jacob deGrom for it to happen (sigh), but Megill is getting a shot in the Mets’ rotation. With Max Scherzer pushed back a day following a brief hamstring issue, Megill got the start on Opening Day against the Nationals and delivered five scoreless innings with six strikeouts and no walks. While the Nationals aren’t expected to be very good this season, their lineup isn’t exactly a pushover.
And it wasn’t just the line that was impressive for Megill. The 26-year-old averaged 96.1 mph on his four-seam fastball on Opening Day, up from 94.6 mph in his rookie season. His slider was a weapon, as he racked up five whiffs on eight swings. His slider also had 39.1 inches of vertical drop compared to 34 inches last season. “Big Drip” could be poised for a big sophomore year.
Jhoan Duran RP, Twins
Speaking of velocity, Duran is on another level. After winning a spot in the Twins’ bullpen coming out of spring training, the 24-year-old impressed in his MLB debut against the Mariners on Friday, tossing two scoreless innings of relief while allowing two hits and one walk with four strikeouts.
Duran threw 31 pitches in total, racking up eight swinging strikes. He clocked in at 99 mph or higher in seven of his pitches and topped 100 mph on three occasions. And that’s not even mentioning his famous mid-to-high 90s “splinker,” which induced three swinging strikes. I mean, look at this thing. Sick.
Duran’s new teammate Carlos Correa sure was impressed:
Duran followed that up with a scoreless ninth inning to finish off a 4-0 victory over the Mariners on Monday night.
Acquired as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade with the Diamondbacks in 2018, Duran has been considered one of the Twins’ better pitching prospects in recent years, but elbow troubles limited him to just 16 innings in Triple-A last year. And while he’s mostly pitched as a starter in the minors, he might have found a home in the Twins’ bullpen.
It’s worth noting that the Twins traded Taylor Rogers to the Padres in the deal that netted them Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan, so there’s opportunity in the closer role as soon as this season. Perhaps names like Tyler Duffey and Jorge Alcala get the edge out of the gate here, but Duran could quickly move up the pecking order in the late innings.
Jeremy Peña SS, Astros
Well, duh. Once Carlos Correa put pen to paper on his deal with the Twins, it was clear that the starting shortstop job was Peña’s to lose in Houston. To his credit, he earned it with his strong play in the spring and he’s kept it going in his brief showing in the majors to date. Did you see him hit his first home run while his parents were being interviewed? Great stuff.
Peña has never been mentioned among the elite infield prospects in the game, but it might be time to reevaluate his standing. Always known for his defense and ability to make contact, the 24-year-old added some serious power to his game last season while smacking 10 home runs in just 133 plate appearances in Triple-A.
This didn’t exactly happen overnight. While the 2020 minor league season was canceled amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Pena used that shutdown period to add muscle to his frame and he began to show some progress on the power front upon reporting to the instructional league. He missed some time with a wrist injury last year, but still managed to show some impressive pop in a small sample. It’s possible he would have been ranked higher on prospect lists this winter if he was able to play something closer to a full season last year. Fantasy managers aren’t complaining, though.
It will be interesting to see where Peña’s strikeout rate will settle, as it was up last year compared to his previous seasons in the minors. This could put a damper on his ability to help on the batting average front. There’s an interesting power/speed combo here at minimum, but getting to hit in the powerful Astros’ lineup certainly helps his case moving forward.
Post-hype Riser
Edwin Rios 1B/3B, Dodgers
It might look strange to see Rios in here, but hang with me for a minute. The 27-year-old went just 4-for-51 (.078) with the Dodgers last season before undergoing surgery for a torn labrum in his right shoulder, but he earned a spot on the Opening Day roster after hitting .292 with three homers and a 6/6 K/BB ratio over 30 plate appearances in the spring. It’s safe to say he’s feeling good.
While the 2021 results might stick in our minds, it’s easy to forget that Rios put up 12 home runs and a .972 OPS over 139 plate appearances between 2019-2020. And while we’re talking about sporadic sample sizes — and a lofty strikeout rate — he made plenty of hard contact.
Similar to the names mentioned above, what I’m looking for here is opportunity. Rios has it, at least for now. The trade of A.J. Pollock cleared the way for him to crack the Opening Day roster and the addition of the DH spot gives Dodgers manager Dave Roberts the flexibility to put Rios in the lineup if warranted. This is a cheap way to get some exposure to the Dodgers’ lineup for now and maybe for the next couple of years, as well. He’s basically free on waivers right now, so no harm no foul if it doesn’t work out.
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I’m Watching You
MacKenzie Gore SP, Padres
Is Gore ready to reclaim his standing among the top pitching prospects in the game? Okay, maybe it’s a little too soon to say that, but the early signs are encouraging.
After Gore’s mechanics were a mess for a large portion of last season, he turned in 16/3 K/BB ratio while allowing six runs in 12 innings during Cactus League action. That wasn’t good enough for him to win a spot in the Padres’ rotation to begin the year, especially after the club acquired Sean Manaea, but Gore fired five scores frames with seven strikeouts and no walks in his season debut with Triple-A El Paso on Saturday.
Gore threw 43 out of his 63 pitches for strikes while compiling 12 whiffs. He topped out at 97.3 mph on his fastball and struck out the side in his final inning of work. Regardless of whether he’s called on to replace Blake Snell (adductor) in the Padres’ rotation — there’s an opening on Friday — it’s just encouraging to see him throwing hard and peppering the strike zone.
