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The following is my annual review of my Tout Wars Mixed Draft team. The draft took place on Tuesday, March 8th.
Of course, this was before the lockout was settled and the flurry of moves and injury news we’ve seen in recent days. If you are drafting late this year, be thankful.
There are multiple mixed leagues in Tout Wars this year, but this particular one consists of 15 teams with a 5x5 format and on-base percentage in place of batting average. It’s important to keep in mind in terms of draft strategy.
My previous finishes:
2021: 2nd place
2020: 13th place
2019: 5th place
2018: 4th place
2017: 6th place
Yes, I came oh-so-close to my first title last year, but Adam Ronis won the league relatively easily. Things didn’t look so great for me early on last season, as Freddie Freeman (my first-round pick) was struggling and Zac Gallen (my third-round pick) was hurt, but the emergence of Logan Webb helped rescue my pitching staff. Of course, Freeman eventually did his usual Freeman things and my offense was propped up with value picks like Teoscar Hernandez (8th round) and Mitch Haniger (16th round). My hunch with Emmanuel Clase (25th) turned out to be a good one and gave me a formidable closer duo with Raisel Iglesias all season long. A lot went right for me, but I still came up short. I’ll need a lot more to go right for me this year to finally get that elusive title.
This year’s participants (in order of drafting) and their affiliations:
1) Adam Ronis - Fantasy Alarm
2) D.J. Short - NBC Sports EDGE
3) Shelly Verougstraete - Dynasty Guru/Pitcher List
4) Tim McLeod - Patton and Co
5) Tim McCullough - Baseball Prospectus
6) Seth Trachtman - NBC Sports EDGE
7) Ray Murphy - Baseball HQ
8) Scott White - CBS Fantasy Sports
9) Charlie Wiegert - CDM Sports
10) Perry Van Hook - Mastersball
11) Rudy Gamble - Razzball
12) Mike Gianella - Baseball Prospectus
13) AJ Mass - ESPN Fantasy
14) Jeff Barton - Scoresheet Sports
15) Anthony Perri - Fantistics
You can see the full draft board here, but below you’ll find my commentary for each of my picks and the league in general.
1st round: Juan Soto OF, Nationals
Given that this is an on-base percentage league, I spent most of my draft prep thinking about who I was going to pivot to when Soto inevitably fell off the board at No. 1. So imagine my surprise when Ronis took Fernando Tatis Jr. instead. While I knew I would have to find more balance later, Soto’s on-base ability gives a huge advantage out of the gate and a buffer to make some different choices over the course of the draft. It was an easy choice.
Note: Ronis’ pick obviously came before the news of Tatis’ wrist injury on Monday. Even if Ronis would have picked Soto, I was planning on going with Trea Turner at No. 2.
2nd round: Shane Bieber SP, Guardians
While Soto was an easy choice, Bieber was decidedly not. I was hoping for Zack Wheeler (prior to news about his shoulder), Aaron Nola, or Julio Urias, but that simply wasn’t to be. Verougstraete took Urias right before my turn, which was especially painful. In my mind, there was a clear dividing line in “fantasy ace” potential after Bieber, so decided to take my chances on a pitcher who missed most of the second half last year due to shoulder issues. Sometimes you have to take big swings. More on that later.
3rd round: Wander Franco SS, Rays
My Bieber pick was strategic in a sense, as I knew that Ronis hadn’t taken a starting pitcher yet. I assumed that he would likely take Bieber, but I was still hoping that defensive move would enable me to get Matt Olson on the way back. It didn’t happen, so I turned my attention to Franco. There’s some debate in the fantasy community about what sort of upside Franco has in him, but that’s overthinking it in my mind. He hit .288/.347/.463 (129 OPS+) over 70 games as a 20-year-old last year. That’s insanely impressive. His on-base skills are already a strength and it’s not crazy to think he could reach 20 homers and 10-15 steals as soon as this year. The sky is the limit with him.
4th round: Byron Buxton OF, Twins
Remember what I said about taking big swings? I was about to take that literally before McCullough selected Pete Alonso three picks before me. Still, the sentiment also fits Buxton to a T. This could be a happy accident. Buxton looked like an MVP candidate through the early part of last season before a hip strain got in the way in May. Not long after returning, he suffered a left hand fracture on a hit-by-pitch which kept him sidelined until late August. Still, he hit the ball extremely hard and his sprint speed was among the game’s elite. Maybe this is the year he stays on the field and puts it all together. Maybe it isn’t. But he’s the sort of player who can get me my first title in this league.
5th round: Alex Bregman 3B, Astros
Third base is bad this year. Really bad. However, there are a couple of intriguing rebound candidates with Bregman and Anthony Rendon. Rendon is older and coming off hip surgery, so I decided to take my chances with Bregman. Even with back-to-back disappointing seasons, he’s put up a .353 on-base percentage over that time. With or without Carlos Correa, the Astros’ lineup remains one of the strongest in the game. Let’s just hope that the leg issues don’t continue to linger.
6th round: Joe Musgrove SP, Padres
It was time to dip back into the starting pitcher pool for my No. 2. And while I was hoping to land Lance Lynn, my fellow NBC Sports EDGE colleague Seth Trachtman sniped him four picks before me. Musgrove makes for a fine fallback coming off a year where he posted a career-best 3.18 ERA with 203 strikeouts over 181 1/3 innings. He stumbled a bit in September, which could have been a fatigue factor. Not exactly unexpected after he only threw 39 2/3 innings in the shortened 2020 campaign. He fits the bill for a solid No. 2 option.
7th round: Edwin Diaz RP, Mets
I grabbed my first closer on the turn after seeing names like Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks, Raisel Iglesias, and Ryan Pressly selected. There’s certainly an argument to take Emmanuel Clase here (Verougstraete took him right after me), but his strikeout rate was surprisingly ordinary last year despite his great stuff. Diaz gives me a little boost in strikeouts, which is meaningful.
8th round: Jake Cronenworth: 2B/1B/SS, Padres
At this point, I had yet to address first base or second base, so Cronenworth gave me the option to play and play depending on how the rest of the draft played out. The 28-year-old offers a strong approach and contact ability with the potential to contribute across all categories. And while he’s only stolen seven bases through 206 major league games, his sprint speed was in the 86th percentile last year. It wouldn’t be surprising if we see more on the front this year.
9th round: Franmil Reyes DH, Guardians
After missing out on targets like Matt Olson and Pete Alonso earlier in the draft, it was time to get a big-bopper. Reyes is UTIL-only, which isn’t ideal, but you’re willing to overlook that with his power potential. He amassed 30 homers and 85 RBI in 115 games last year and it’s not crazy to think he could sit among the league-leaders in home runs with the benefit of a full season. On-base percentage isn’t likely to be a strength, but that’s where taking Juan Soto earlier helps make sacrifices later.
10th round: Chris Bassitt SP, Athletics
It was time to get back into the starting pitcher pool, which was starting to thin out in regard to trusted options. I was happy to see that Bassitt was still available, as he’s done enough to gain our trust at this point. The 33-year-old holds a 2.90 ERA over 38 starts dating back to the start of 2020. Only six pitchers (min. 200 IP total) have a lower ERA during that time. You can never count on a sub-3 ERA, but he works just fine as a No. 3 on a mixed league staff.
11th round: Akil Baddoo OF, Tigers
I had ignored my outfield for long enough after taking Soto and Buxton earlier, so Baddoo made sense as I attempted to add some more speed to my squad. Trent Grisham was also a possibility here — he went a few picks later — but I was impressed by the adjustments that Baddoo made as a Rule 5 pick and it makes me believe there could be another level here. His struggles against lefties are worth watching, though. Still, speed was needed, so I went for it.
12th round: Brandon Belt 1B, Giants
Again, this is an OBP format, so Belt lasting this long felt like a bargain. The 33-year-old has an injury history, yes, but he’s a much different hitter these days in terms of power. He’s slugged 38 homers in 148 games over the past two seasons, with his wRC+ checking in at 163. Only Bryce Harper and Juan Soto have outpaced him in that time among players with at least 500 plate appearances. His .393 on-base percentage ranks seventh since 2020.
13th round: Adley Rutschman C, Orioles
I was planning to take a catcher at this point, so it was just a matter of who was still available. Two of my favorite targets — Mitch Garver and Keibert Ruiz went off the board in the 12th round and I wasn’t feeling great about the alternatives, so it was time to take another big swing with Rutschman. The ETA isn’t quite clear — and maybe some of that will be determined by the final terms of the new CBA — but I don’t think the wait is going to be long. To me, Rutschman has top-five fantasy catcher ability from the day he arrives. I’m going to need that to win this league.
14th round: Sean Murphy C, Athletics
After waiting 26 picks for my next turn, it was time for an insurance policy for Rutchsman. I looked at Murphy as a potential top-10 catcher going into drafts last year. It didn’t exactly work out, but he still managed to hit 17 homers and I’m willing to overlook some of the struggles given that he required two procedures for a collapsed lung last spring. With a “normal” offseason and ramp-up, hopefully things will be different for him this year.
15th round: Luke Voit 1B, Yankees
It was time for some more beef after taking Franmil Reyes a bit earlier. Voit’s situation is in doubt somewhat after a string of injuries last year and being displaced by the presence of Anthony Rizzo down the stretch. The Yankees’ trade with the Twins over the weekend only makes the situation murkier. Still, Voit hit the ball extremely hard when healthy last year and led the majors in homers in 2020. I’m hoping his situation gets cleared up one way or another and he resumes mashing.
16th round: Alex Cobb SP, Giants
The Giants have reportedly added Carlos Rodon to their rotation, but don’t forget about Cobb, who signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the club prior to the lockout. Sporting a career-best strikeout rate, the 34-year-old posted a 3.76 ERA over 18 starts with the Angels last season. Given the Giants’ recent track record for maximizing the talent they bring in, I’m intrigued by the possibilities here.
17th round: Andrew Kittredge RP, Rays
There’s a reason Kittredge lasted this long, as the Rays tend to keep us guessing about who their closer might be over the course of a season. Still, Kittredge led the team with eight saves last season and he’s the clear frontrunner as the Rays’ roster is currently constructed. Remember, Nick Anderson underwent a UCL brace procedure on his right elbow last October and likely won’t be ready to return until around mid-season. Not a bad gamble at this stage of the draft.
18th round: Jeff McNeil 2B/OF, Mets
Whether McNeil stays with the Mets or not, I don’t think what we saw from him last season was representative of his true skills. With his contact ability, there’s still a .300 hitter in here somewhere, with some nice counting stats to boot. The multi-position eligibility is a nice bonus to fill out your roster.
19th round: Huascar Ynoa SP, Braves
I had my eve on Steven Matz and Jameson Taillon in the previous round, so it was time to focus on my rotation since again. Ynoa is fascinating to me after his breakout early last season. Of course, that came to a screeching and self-inflicted halt after he broke his pitching hand by punching the dugout bench. He was mediocre upon his return, so there’s a chance he’ll be undervalued going into drafts this spring.
20th round: Tony Gonsolin SP, Dodgers
I really wanted Tylor Megill in this spot, as I think there’s room for growth after his rookie season, but Trachtman grabbed him a few picks for me. Gonsolin was a fine gamble here, even though his control was uncharacteristically shaky last year. The Dodgers’ rotation has a lot of moving parts, especially a after reportedly re-signing Clayton Kershaw, but hopefully Gonsolin gets a real shot here.
21st round: Jonathan Villar SS/3B, FA
Versatility and speed were the priorities at this stage of the draft and Villar checked those boxes. He’s still a free agent as of this write-up, but odds are he’ll find himself in a significant role somewhere. The 30-year-old racked up 18 homers and 14 steals over 142 games with the Mets last season. He’s not as fast as his reputation indicates, but he’s usually active on the basepaths, for better or worse.
22nd round: Andrew McCutchen OF, FA
I had Brandon Marsh all queued up, but Verougstaete took him right before me. I was taking an outfielder no matter what, so McCutchen wasn’t a bad fallback, even if he’s unsigned right now. The 34-year-old slugged 27 homers last year (his highest since 2017) and still draws a ton of walks, so odds are he’ll play a bunch wherever he winds up.
23rd round: Corey Kluber SP, Rays
Yet another veteran. Kluber is a whole of “who the heck knows?” at this point of his career, but he was effective enough when healthy with the Yankees last year to take a chance on him this late. The Rays apparently agree that he’s worth a shot after inking him to a one-year, $8 million contract over the winter.
Reserve round picks:
24th round: Luis Garcia RP, Padres
25th round: Steven Kwan OF, Guardians
26th round: Austin Gomber SP, Rockies
Garcia is a pure guess, as the Padres’ closer situation is very much up in the air coming into the spring. Robert Suarez is also an option after spending five seasons in Japan. I probably won’t be as lucky as when I snagged Emmanuel Clase in the reserve rounds last year, but I can dream. Kwan brings some serious contact ability to the table and hopefully gets the chance to run away with an outfield job in Cleveland. Gomber was probably my least favorite pick of the draft, but it will be interesting to see how he looks after a back injury ended his first season in Colorado.
27th round: Jose Barrero SS, Reds
28th round: Aaron Hicks OF, Yankees
29th round: Diego Castillo RP, Mariners
Kyle Farmer probably projects to be the Reds’ Opening Day shortstop, but it’s probably not long before Barreto gets an opportunity. He’s struggled in his chances to this point, but don’t hold that against him. Hicks is a bit of a mystery after undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist last May, but there’s still a chance he ends up playing a lot of center field this year. It’s obviously hard to count on him, but his on-base skills have always been a strength. Finally, Castillo is a dart-throw in a talented Mariners’ bullpen which doesn’t necessarily have a clear favorite to close games.
My quick lineup takeaways:
With Soto leading the way and a supporting cast including the likes of Wander Franco, Alex Bregman, and Brandon Belt, I’m confident I’ll be among the league-leaders in on-base percentage. I’m not going to lie, though, Soto slipping to me at No. 2 threw me for a bit of a loop in terms of planning. I figured I would get some speed in the first round, but instead I had to try to piece it together over the course of the draft. I did a decent job there, but I’ll have to add throughout the year to compete in that area. Power could also be a bit of an issue, as I’m not sure what version of Bregman we’ll see and it’s unclear what Franco will be able to do in his first full season. Buxton staying healthy and Voit bouncing back would go a long way toward this team living up to their potential.
My quick pitching staff takeaways:
Again, I wasn’t planning to take Bieber here, but his track record speaks for itself. He’s capable of being one of the best pitchers in baseball. Musgrove showed near-ace skills at certain points last year and Bassitt has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the game over the past three seasons. There’s a lot of boom/bust potential from there with Cobb, Ynoa, Gonsolin, Kluber, and Gomber. Getting one elite, locked-in closer with Diaz is the most you can ask for right now. Kittredge should be rostered everywhere until noted otherwise and Garcia and Castillo both have legitimate chances to close some games. This is a good foundation for a pitching staff, but the draft is just step one in a much longer journey.
My quick league takeaways:
I love seeing the different approaches. For instance, Mike Gianella was the only person in the room to go pocket aces (Burnes, Scherzer) to begin his draft while it took until the sixth round for Seth Trachtman (Lance Lynn) and A.J. Mass (Frankie Montas) to draft their first pitchers. Charlie Wiegert went all outfield (Mike Trout, Luis Robert, Starling Marte) with his first three picks. Scott White took seven starting pitchers in his first 14 picks and didn’t take another one the rest of the way. Jeff Barton and Seth Trachtman both took closers in the fourth round while Scott White and Tim McLeod didn’t address that area until the 17th round. League champion Adam Ronis didn’t take a third baseman until Abraham Toro all the way in the 19th round. Anthony Perri leaned hard into some injury risks and rebound candidates, so there’s a wide range of potential outcomes with his squad. It would be pretty boring if everyone had the same approach, so I love this kind of thing.
Yes, this is an on-base percentage league, but I do think some values were left on the board because of that. Starling Marte (39th), Jose Abreu (73th), Eloy Jimenez (77th), and Javier Baez (94th) probably shouldn’t have lasted as long as they did, just to name a few notable examples. I do wonder how my draft might have played out had I taken Marte instead of Franco in the third round, but I didn’t think it was the right time to take another outfielder.
Some of my favorite mid-to-late-round values include Michael Brantley (15th round - Charlie Wiegert), Brandon Nimmo (17th round - Rudy Gamble), Rowdy Tellez (20th round - Shelly Verougstraete), Alec Bohm (20th round - Mike Gianella), and Jesus Luzardo (Adam Ronis - 25th round).
