Arizona Diamondbacks
Team Record: 89-73 (.549)
3rd Place, NL West
Team ERA: 4.63 (27th)
Team OPS: .777 (2nd)
What Went Right
With a record of 89-73, the Diamondbacks fell just short of a wild-card spot as the Mets and Braves knocked them from the playoffs by splitting the September 30 doubleheader. It was the bats that kept the team in contention all season, with a .777 team OPS that was second to just the Dodgers. Ketel Marte led the way with an incredible campaign, setting career-highs in home runs with 36 and RBI with 95 while stealing seven bases and slashing .292/.372/.560 across 583 plate appearances. Corbin Carroll, a consensus top-five pick in fantasy drafts last spring, got off to an abysmal start to the season before salvaging his year with 17 homers, 17 steals, and a .258 batting average in the second half. He totaled 22 homers and 35 steals on the year. Eugenio Suárez proved to be a valuable addition to the lineup, slugging 30 homers and driving in 101 RBI with a .788 OPS. And the ever-consistent Christian Walker put up another solid season, posting a .803 OPS with 26 homers and 84 RBI. The team also contributions from Jake McCarthy, Joc Pederson, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
On the pitching side, there wasn’t nearly as much to be thrilled about. Zac Gallen was solid, posting a 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 156 strikeouts over 148 innings. He lost a chunk of the season to a hamstring strain in late May. Justin Martinez had a breakout season out of the bullpen, with a 2.48 ERA and 91 strikeouts across 72 2/3 innings while converting eight saves. And AJ Puk was a stellar pickup at the trade deadline, recording a 1.32 ERA with 43 strikeouts over 27 1/3 innings with the team. But that’s about where the good things end on the pitching front.
What Went Wrong
As good as the hitting was, Arizona’s pitching was just as bad, recording a 4.63 ERA as a team that ranked 27th in baseball. The Diamondbacks just had very little else to go to behind Gallen. Brandon Pfaadt led the team in innings pitched with 181 2/3 but was inconsistent all season with a 4.71 ERA. Jordan Montgomery was expected to be a stabilizing presence this season but struggled mightily to a 6.23 ERA across 117 frames. The team struggled to piece together the rest of the rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez managed just a 5.04 ERA over 50 innings. It was the lack of pitching that eventually led to the team falling one game short of the playoffs.
Fantasy Slants
**Despite the down season overall, the speed contributions and turnaround in the second half will likely make Carroll the first Diamondback taken in 2025 fantasy drafts. The 24-year-old outfielder slashed just .212/.301/.334 with five homers through the All-Star break. Beneath the surface stats, he produced a 35.9 percent hard-hit rate and a 3.8 percent barrel rate. Things clicked in the second half, as he raised those numbers to 47.8 percent on the hard-hit rate and a 12.5 percent barrel rate to support the power surge down the stretch. If 20/30 and a .256 BABIP are Carroll’s floor, the speedster could be going at a discount in 2025.
**Marte should be the first true second baseman taken in fantasy drafts after an incredible season. His 36 home runs and .932 OPS were supported by career-highs in his barrel rate at 12.3 percent and his hard-hit rate of 53.4 percent. Even with the rule changes, Marte still only stole seven bases, so he’ll continue to just chip in some steals. But he’s a safe bet for power and batting average, making him an excellent four-category contributor worthy of a pick in the top three rounds.
**Gallen’s slightly elevated walk rate and a career-high .305 BABIP led to a higher WHIP than we’ve seen from the 29-year-old right-hander. He struggled through July and August coming off the hamstring injury before ending the season on a strong note with a 2.67 ERA in September. He’ll make for a great bounce-back candidate capable of providing excellent ratios and inning volume as a second or third starter.
**Justin Martinez had stepped up in the closer role after Paul Sewald pitched himself out of the job. Martinez picked up eight saves and had a stellar season overall, posting a 2.48 ERA. But the 23-year-old right-hander struggled down the stretch in September. AJ Puk was impressive in his time in Arizona, giving up only four runs with a 43/5 K/BB ratio over 27 1/3 innings with the team. That’s closer material. The team could just go with a committee in the ninth inning next season as things stand, but Puk will be worth a dart throw in the later rounds.
** Pfaadt was a popular sleeper going into 2024 after impressing in the 2023 postseason. He certainly flashed some upside throughout the season with some skills to build on. His 3.75 xERA, 3.61 FIP, and 3.58 xFIP suggest he pitched better than the 4.71 ERA indicates. Where the 26-year-old right-hander needs to improve is his effectiveness against left-handed hitters. Left-handed batters posted a .811 OPS and 19.7 percent strikeout against him while right-handers had a collective .635 OPS and a 29.1 percent strikeout rate. If he can find a pitch mix to combat left-handed batters, Pfaadt could have some sleeper appeal with breakout potential.
Key Free Agents
Christian Walker, Paul Sewald, Josh Bell, Kevin Newman, Jordan Montgomery (player option), Joc Pederson (mutual option), Eugenio Suárez (club option)
Team Needs
Bringing back Christian Walker should be a priority to keep the lineup intact. Otherwise, it’ll all come down to starting pitching for the Diamondbacks next season. The team needs to improve upon the rotation behind Gallen. Improvements from Pfaadt and Rodriguez would go a long way, but expect the team to be players in the free-agent and trade markets for starting pitching.
