Well, that was certainly something. After a few big trades over the weekend, Tuesday’s trade deadline saw a flurry of late activity with more total trades than I can remember in a long time.
So what do we do now from a fantasy perspective?
In this article, I’m going to do my best to parse through all the players who have seen their fantasy value rise or fall noticeably after the trade deadline. Since there were so many trades overall, we’re not going to discuss every player who was traded but focus on the players whose fantasy value was meaningfully impacted. That means we won’t cover many relievers like Mark Leiter Jr. or Lucas Sims or players whose fantasy value didn’t really change one way or another, like Justin Turner, Michael Lorenzen, or Danny Jansen.
Just as a heads-up, I’ll be focusing mainly on redraft leagues here. Chris Crawford will have an article coming out with his analysis of the top prospects moved at the deadline, so I’m only going to mention prospects here if the trade drastically changed their outlook for the remainder of the 2024 season.
Let’s start with the good news.
Risers after the trade deadline
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - OF/2B/3B - New York Yankees
Moving from the Marlins to the Yankees is clearly an upgrade. Moving to Yankee Stadium as a left-handed hitter is also a pretty big upgrade. And then, as if you didn’t need any more evidence that Jazz was going to see his fantasy value rise, he has crushed it in his first three games with the Yankees. The 26-year-old has gone 6-for-16 in three games with the Yankees with four home runs, five runs scored, nine RBI, and one steal. He’s hitting fifth, a couple of hitters behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, so the RBI totals will be good but the run totals may not be great unless the rest of the Yankees lineup wakes up. Still, this is a clear upgrade.
Lane Thomas - OF, Cleveland Guardians
Thomas goes from a Nationals team that ranks 18th in runs and 23rd in wRC+ to a Guardians team that ranks 13th in runs and 14th in wRC+. He also moves from a park that ranks 26th among MLB stadiums this year for right-handed hitters (according to Statcast’s Park Factors) to one that ranks ninth among MLB stadiums for right-handed hitters after some renovations to maximize some wind through the park. Thomas will hit second for Cleveland, ahead of Jose Ramirez, and while he’s not likely to steal as many bases for the Guardians, his counting stats should be much improved, which is a big win.
Jorge Soler - OF, Atlanta Braves
Well, we’ve seen Jorge Soler on the Braves before and it led to a .269 average, 14 home runs, and 33 RBI in 55 games. Oh, and the Braves won the World Series. Soler trades a slightly above-average lineup for a strong lineup and moves from Statcast’s 29th-ranked park for right-handed hitters to the eighth-ranked park for righties. That’s a pretty major upgrade, as is potentially hitting lead-off in front of Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson.
Connor Norby - 2B, Miami Marlins and Kyle Stowers - OF, Miami Marlins
Well, two Orioles prospects who were forever bashing their heads into the wall trying to break into the MLB lineup will now likely play every day in Miami to finish out the season. I’m not 100% sold on the fantasy upside for either of these guys, but they are legitimately solid real-life players and will have full-time jobs. Norby has seen a bit of a power spike this year, but he’s also striking out almost 28% of the time in Triple-A and will play his home games in a pitcher’s park. He may just be a primary batting average asset moving forward. Stowers has more power, but also has swing-and-miss issues and didn’t hit over .245 in Triple-A this season or last season. I think these were the two Orioles prospects with the lowest ceilings, but I’m still surprised this is all the team could get for them. In a bad Miami lineup, they’ll just have modest fantasy value this season.
Jackson Holliday - 2B, Baltimore Orioles
With Jorge Mateo out, the trade of Connor Norby opens up a spot for the Orioles to call up Jackson Holliday to be the everyday second baseman. It didn’t go so well for him in the first stint, but we can’t write off a top prospect that quickly; however, we should keep our expectations in check. Holliday is hitting .271 in Triple-A with 10 home runs and eight steals in 73 games. Obviously, that should stand out as not a particularly fantasy-friendly line and it’s important to keep in mind that Holliday is just 20 years old and has not yet grown into his full power. He should put up good counting stats in a strong Orioles lineup but don’t expect fireworks.
Trevor Rogers - SP, Baltimore Orioles
Look, I’m surprised the Marlins got as much for Rogers as they did, and while he’s been great over the last couple of months, I’m not sure he’s recaptured the magic we saw in 2021. The slider is not back. The strikeout rate is just 18% on the season, and I’m just not sure he has the same upside we thought we saw back then. However, he’s now moving to a much better team in a good pitcher’s park, and so it’s a clear upgrade for him. If you were rostering Albert Suarez because he was on the Orioles then you’re absolutely rostering Rogers.
Hayden Birdsong - SP, San Francisco Giants
With the Giants trading away Alex Cobb, they opened up a spot in the rotation for Birdsong to slide back in. The rookie has a 2.97 ERA in six big league starts but also an 11.9% walk rate. His four-seam fastball is a below-average pitch, so he needs to stop relying on it so much, but the slider and changeup appear to be legit. There could be something intriguing here with Birdsong, but I’d like to see improved command and a slight pitch mix change.
Ben Joyce - RP, Los Angeles Angels
I said we weren’t going to talk about all relievers, but we should talk about the ones that have landed in closer’s gigs. With both Carlos Estevez and Luis Garcia on other teams, the Angels have basically said that Joyce will be taking over closer duties. Ever since adding a splinker, he has been a much more dynamic reliever and more well-rounded than a guy who just throws triple-digits. The Angels won’t win a ton of games, but he’ll close them when they do.
Andrew Nardi and Calvin Faucher - RP, Miami Marlins
Somebody has to save games on the Marlins with Tanner Scott gone, and it will come down to Nardi and Faucher. My money is on Nardi right now, but you can take a stab at either of these two and see who comes out with the job.
Chad Green - RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Well, Yimi Garcia was traded and, despite many rumors, Chad Green stayed put, which means that Green will operate as the main reliever in the Blue Jays’ bullpen the rest of the way. Now, they will use him in high-leverage situations that are not save situations, so you have to factor that in when you roster him, but he’s been electric this season and this Blue Jays offense isn’t that bad.
Miguel Vargas - 2B/OF, Chicago White Sox
The 24-year-old Vargas has been unable to find a home with the Dodgers in part because of some defensive questions; however, he has made clear strides at the plate this season. Before getting a look as a left fielder against left-handers in the majors, he was hitting .290/.440/.566 in 41 games at Triple-A with eight home runs, eight steals, and a ridiculous 19.9 percent walk rate. While his defensive home remains unclear, he should play every day for the White Sox and has the offensive profile to be a solid contributor across most categories without potentially being elite in any.
Joey Loperfido - OF/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Loperfido was electric in the minors this season, hitting .272 with 13 home runs and nine steals in 39 games in Triple-A before getting called up to the big league club. However, the Astros never seemed to want to play him regularly, in part because of his defensive weaknesses, and he hit .236/.299/.358 with 43 strikeouts in 118 plate appearances so far this season. The Jays could try him at left field, first base, or DH, and it makes sense for them to see what they have in the 25-year-old before creating their lineup for 2025 in the majors. Loperfido draws walks and is a plus runner, which makes him an intriguing fantasy asset if he gets a full-time job.
Alejandro Kirk - C, Toronto Blue Jays
Kirk has been bad this season and really for two seasons, so it’s possible he’s not quite as good as people wanted him to be. However, with Danny Jansen in Boston, he’s now the clear starter in Toronto and that gives him immediate two-catcher league value with the chance to vault into consideration in deeper one-catcher leagues.
Dillon Dingler - C, Detroit Tigers
With the Tigers trading Carson Kelly to the Rangers, they opened up a spot to call up Dingler, who is one of their top prospects. The 25-year-old slugger had been swinging a very hot bat at Triple-A Toledo where he was slashing .308/.379/.559 with 17 homers, 52 RBI, and five stolen bases through 263 at-bats. He’ll share the load behind the plate with Jake Rogers for the remainder of the season but with Dingler’s power potential and Rogers struggling, the rookie is an intriguing option in two-catcher mixed leagues and AL-only formats.
Pedro Leon - OF, Houston Astros
With the Astros dealing away Loperfido, somebody is going to need to start in right field until Kyle Tucker comes back (if he ever does). On Monday that person was Trey Cabbage, but on Tuesday the Astros called up Pedro Leon, who was the top international prospect in 2021 when he signed with Houston for $4 million. While it has taken him a little while to put things together the 26-year-old is hitting .297/.377/.519 in 93 games in Triple-A this year with 19 home runs and 23 steals. He’s walking less but has also cut his strikeout rate to 26% and is using that more aggressive approach to make more meaningful contact. If the Astros give him a shot in right field, he has the five-tool upside to be interesting in fantasy leagues.
Fallers after the trade deadline
Randy Arozarena - OF, Seattle Mariners
A lot has been made of how hard it can be for right-handed hitters to hit in T-Mobile Park. Teoscar Hernandez mentioned that he felt the batter’s box was “crooked” or “not really straight with the pitcher” and former MLB pitcher Trevor May said many hitters have complained about the batter’s eye in Seattle and how it makes it hard to feel comfortable in the box. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that T-Mobile is the WORST PARK IN BASEBALL for right-handed hitters, according to Statcast’s Park Factor data. But Arozarena is now moving to the worst park for right-handed hitters and an offense that ranks 20th in wRC+, 27th in OPS, 28th in runs scored, and dead last in strikeout rate. That’s not super encouraging.
Tyler Locklear - 1B, Seattle Mariners
It seemed like Tyler Locklear was going to get a chance to earn the first base job for the Mariners again after the team got rid of Ty France, but they almost immediately brought in Justin Turner, which meant Locklear went back to the minors.
Garrett Crochet - SP, Chicago White Sox
What a bummer. Perhaps because Crochet said he wanted an extension from a new team before he continued to pitch this season, the left-hander remained in Chicago. That means he’ll get no team upgrade, but it also means his innings will continue to be cut short. He hasn’t thrown more than four innings in any of his last four starts and he has just 13 total innings over that span. He also hasn’t looked as good as he deals with this new routine. You can’t cut him, but this is a huge hit to his value.
Isaac Paredes - 3B, Chicago Cubs
Over the last three years, Tropicana Field ranks 15th in Statcast’s Home Run Park Factor right-handed power, while Wrigley Field ranks 20th. We know that so much of Paredes’ value is based on his ability to pull the ball down the line and hit home runs despite a 4% barrel rate. Well, the Trop is 315 feet down the line to left field, but Wrigley Field is 355 feet down the line. That’s a MAJOR difference. It’s an inexact method, but based on his batted balls, Statcast says Paredes would have 11 home runs this season if he played in Wrigley as opposed to the 19 home runs he has hit. Considering so much of Paredes’ value is based on his home run totals, this feels like a bad move for his fantasy value.
Yusei Kikuchi - SP, Houston Astros
This is a tough one for me. On one hand, Kikuchi is going to a better team and a more well-run organization that could help him bridge the gap between his subpar ERA and his far better SIERA. On the other hand, his new home park is far more problematic. Despite having a much lower HR/FB ratio that he’s had in a few years, Kikuchi has allowed more fly balls this year than in years past. So why aren’t those balls leaving the yard? Is it luck? Are they not as well hit? I don’t love that Kikuchi is allowing so many fly balls and now moving to the Crawford boxes.
Tanner Scott - RP, San Diego Padres
We all knew it was going to happen, but that doesn’t change how a trade hurts Tanner Scott’s value. With Robert Suarez still locked in as the closer in San Diego, Scott will move into a set-up role. Now, he could steal saves here and there against left-handed-heavy sections of the lineup, but they may be too infrequent to keep on your team outside of the deepest leagues.
Heston Kjerstad - OF, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles just simply don’t want to give full-time at-bats to some of these young prospects. After trading away Austin Hays and Kyle Stowers, it seemed like more playing time may have been opening up for Kjerstad but then the Orioles traded for Eloy Jimenez and Austin Slater as well. Now, both of those guys should only play against lefties, but that means Kjerstad will for sure be on the bench against lefties and then still needs to compete with Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins for at-bats against righties. It’s not an ideal situation.
Albert Suarez and Cade Povich - SP, Baltimore Orioles
The acquisition of Trevor Rogers means Albert Suarez is out of the rotation and Cade Povich will no longer have a shot to earn a spot this season. These aren’t truths that have come out of nowhere, but they are here now. Moving Suarez to the bullpen is great for Baltimore since he has a 3.62 ERA overall but also posted a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings as a reliever. He won’t hold fantasy
value in that role though, so both he and Povich can be dropped in all redraft leagues.
Justin Wrobleski and River Ryan - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Of course the Dodgers traded for the top starting pitcher on the market. With Jack Flaherty in Los Angeles now, it seems like a given that Wrobleski will lose this spot in the rotation, but it also means that River Ryan could be the next player demoted if/when the Dodgers decide to bring back either Walker Buehler or Bobby Miller. Ryan appears to be safe for now, but he’s just one step closer to being out of a job, which is a little unsettling at this part of the season.
Jhonkensy Noel - 1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians
Noel had started six straight games for the Guardians last week and there was some chatter that he was pushing for a full-time role, but the truth of the matter was that four of those games were against left-handed pitchers and he homered in a couple of them, so the team gave him a chance to see if he could stay hot. Still, he’s striking out over 33% of the time in his MLB action this year and found himself on the bench on Tuesday in Lane Thomas’ first game with a team. The most concerning part about that is that the Guardians were facing a left-handed pitcher. If Noel isn’t even starting in those games then he may have lost all fantasy value.
Paul DeJong - INF, Kansas City Royals
You weren’t really rostering DeJong outside of deeper formats, but the move to Kansas City is obviously a bummer for his value because they have a pretty good shortstop there. Instead of playing every day, DeJong will now be a bench infielder for the Royals, which all but kills his value.
Otto Lopez (2B) and Vidal Brujan (INF/OF) - Miami Marlins
After getting rid of Jazz Chisholm and Josh Bell, it seemed like Lopez and Brujan were looking at everyday roles in Miami, but the additions of Norby and Stowers will likely have ended that. These guys likely weren’t on many radars but they’re now likely bench players on the Marlins which means they shouldn’t be rostered in any format.
