The Daytona 500 has been the season opener since 1982. For most casual fans, this doesn’t matter much because it has been designed to be an “entertainment” more than a race. With NASCAR severely limiting the horsepower available, all 40 cars in the field can run almost exact speeds and dark horses have an equal opportunity to earn top-10s as the marquee teams.
The result for fantasy gamers and bettors is that anything can happen to upset their plans.
As drivers jockey for position, it is impossible to be perfect for 500 miles. Someone inevitably makes a mistake and if that happens at the front of the pack – like it did last year on the final lap – more than half the field can get wiped out. The ‘Big One’ crash is indiscriminate and often eliminates as many marquee teams as underdogs.
And yet, this race counts just the same as more predictable affairs. A driver will be awarded the trophy, five bonus points for winning, and if history repeats itself, an automatic invitation to the playoffs. Be cautious in your gameplay and don’t go overboard on your wagers and this race can be a lot of fun. If you find yourself overly invested in an outcome, it can be extremely stressful.
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1. Denny Hamlin
From late 2019 through early 2021, Hamlin earned six consecutive top-fives on carburetor-restricted superspeedways, including a victory in the 2020 Daytona 500.
2. Ryan Blaney
He finished 30th in this race last year after crashing on Lap 14, but Blaney rebounded to win the summer race. In his last four Daytona attempts, he’s finished sixth or better three times.
3. Kevin Harvick
For a while, Harvick was crash-prone on the carburetor-restricted superspeedways, but he’s turned a corner recently and earned three top-fives and two more top-10s at Daytona and Talladega in the past two years.
4. Chase Elliott
It took nine attempts at Daytona before Elliott ever cracked the top 10, and during that span of races he had only one top-15. He is now riding a three-race streak of top-10s with a pair of runner-up finishes.
5. Bubba Wallace
In his first Daytona 500, Wallace finished second to another dark horse, Austin Dillon. Last year, he was second again at Daytona and scored his first career victory at Talladega.
6. Ty Dillon
Before crashing out of his two Daytona attempts in 2020, Dillon was riding a three-race streak of finishes sixth or better. He holds a pretty wheel on the big tracks if his luck returns.
7. AJ Allmendinger
Lacking a little bit of patience is not always a bad thing at Daytona, unless it causes Allmendinger to make the wrong move in the draft. He could get shuffled - or wrecked.
8. Austin Cindric
Until the final lap of last year’s Daytona 500, it appeared Team Penske was going to have a banner day – then Brad Keselowski wrecked Joey Logano on the final lap. Cindric was also involved, but still finished 15th.
9. Austin Dillon
Dillon was one of the most pleasant surprises in last year’s Daytona 500 with his third-place finish, but he wasn’t nearly as happy as when he won this race in 2018.
10. Harrison Burton
Typically, rookies don’t get a lot of help at Daytona, but Burton and the Wood Brothers’ affiliation with Team Penske gives him a readymade set of three partners with more than enough skill to take care of him.
11. Justin Haley
Haley proved anything can happen on the big tracks by winning the 2019 Coke Zero 400 in a rain-shortened event. Last year, he was sixth in that same race.
12. Chase Briscoe
Keep an eye on Briscoe because he has shown a knack for staying out of trouble on the big tracks with all four of his efforts last year ending between 11th and 21st.
13. Brad Keselowski
Expect that Keselowski will run well at Daytona in his RFK Racing debut. This team has shown a lot of strength at Daytona and Talladega no matter who is behind the wheel.
14. Chris Buescher
The 2020 season was almost perfect for Buescher on the big tracks until he finished 22nd in Talladega 2 that year. The 2021 season was a mirror image (i.e. reversed) with his only strong run coming in the YellaWood 500.
15. Kyle Larson
The big tracks have not been overly kind to Larson during his career, but he has managed to earn back-to-back 10th-place finishes in the Daytona 500.
16. Kyle Busch
Busch finished second to his teammate Hamlin in 2019 in the Daytona 500 and was 10th in his next plate outing at Talladega. He has not cracked the top 10 on these two tracks since.
17. Michael McDowell
McDowell’s dramatic win in last year’s Daytona 500 was followed up by a third in Talladega 1. That warrants a little attention for the No. 34 team.
18. Joey Logano
He won the 2015 Daytona 500 and while he only has a few top-fives in the intervening races, Logano is one driver who is always near the front. He just needs to survive to win.
19. Corey LaJoie
If you can find a plus line for LaJoie for a top-10 in the Daytona 500, take it. He’s finished that well in the last two edition of this race with an eighth in 2020 and a ninth last year.
20. Erik Jones
Jones has been much better at Talladega than Daytona in the last couple of years, but he does have a win on this track in the summer of 2018.
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21. Ross Chastain
With two top-10s in the last three Daytona 500s and the excitement that comes with a new team, Chastain might well earn a little for bettors who can find a plus line for 10th or better.
22. William Byron
Half of Byron’s eight Daytona attempts ended early with crash damage, but he also has a win on this track in summer 2020 and a second in that same race the year before.
23. Tyler Reddick
Three of Reddick’s last five starts at Daytona and Talladega and Daytona ended in top-10s; unfortunately, four of his last eight have been outside the top 25.
24. Alex Bowman
The big tracks have been hit-or-miss for Bowman in the past two seasons. He has three top-10s in eight starts, but has also been worse than 20th on four occasions.
25. Aric Almirola
In 2019, Almirola earned three top-10s in four races at Daytona and Talladega. He has only one more of those in the last eight races, but came close twice more with a pair of top-15s.
26. Todd Gilliland
Stranger things have happened at Daytona than a rookie in a moderately-funded car earning a top-20 finish, so Gilliland cannot be immediately dismissed.
27. Christopher Bell
It took a while for Bell to get comfortable on the big tracks with only one top-15 in his first seven starts at Daytona and Talladega. Last fall, he finally finished strong with a fifth in the YellaWood 500.
28. Daniel Hemric
After a two-year hiatus on this track, Hemric returns. He’s batting .500 at Daytona with a crash in the 2019 edition of the 500, but he finished on the lead lap in 18th in his next attempt.
29. Cole Custer
In four races at Daytona and Talladega in his rookie season, Custer failed to crack the top 20. Last year as a sophomore, he was in the top 15 three times.
30. Martin Truex, Jr.
With only one top-10 in the last three seasons on the carburetor-restricted superspeedways, Truex is going to be a much better value elsewhere.
31. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
It will take a while to know if trimming this team to one car will have a lasting effect, but Stenhouse may struggle to find drafting partners at Daytona.
32. Kurt Busch
It seems that Busch is too often in the wrong place at Daytona. In his last 10 attempts there, he’s failed to finish five races and was significantly slowed by damage on three other occasions.
33. Cody Ware
In three Daytona starts, Ware has not yet finished on the lead lap or earned a top-20. He came close to the latter with a 21st in last year’s 500, however.
34. BJ McLeod
In his first four Daytona attempts, McLeod scored one top-20. Last year, he was an example of how anything can happen on this track with a ninth-place result.
35. Josh Bilicki
In three starts at Daytona, Bilicki has finished better than he started each time with a best of 10th in last year’s Coke Zero 400.
36. Noah Gragson
Gragson attempted his first Daytona 500 last year, but was unable to advance after ending his day seven laps early in his qualification race.
37. David Ragan
The draft is a great equalizer and Ragan shocked the field in the 2020 Daytona 500 with a fourth-place finish. Five of his last six efforts on this track were marred by accidents, however.
38. Daniel Suarez
Suarez fans will almost certainly have to wait a week before they see how 2022 will unfold. In 10 attempts at Daytona, he has suffered crash damage nine times.
39. Landon Cassill
He has made only one Daytona start since 2019, but in the summer race that year he almost cracked the top 10 for the first time 15 attempts. Last August, he crashed and finished 36th.
40. Kaz Grala
The good news is that Grala has some experience at Daytona with two starts; the bad news is that he crashed and failed to finish either race.
41. Garrett Smithley
After finishing two laps off the pace in 30th last August, Smithley will get a chance to try and make a second start in Daytona.
42. JJ Yeley
Yeley was in attendance for both Daytona races in 2020. He failed to advance from his qualifier in February and completed just three laps before his engine expired in the summer race.
43. Jacques Villeneuve
The draft is the great equalizer, but it is going to take some luck for Villeneuve to survive his qualification race and make it to the big show.
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