Last week’s cheat sheet predictions were not as bad as they might have been. The Daytona 500 and O’Reilly 500 at Texas Motor Speedway were worse earlier this year because of the erratic nature of plate racing on the big track and weepers in the Lone Star state, but predicting the top of the order was difficult nonetheless.
We came close with a prediction that Joey Logano would finish second. He had a little more presence than expected and won. On the other hand, our number one pick Brad Keselowski crashed and finished 33rd – so you win some and you lose some.
Just like the drivers, it’s time to shrug off the bad results from the wild card track and get back to business.
1. Chase Elliott
This is the week that Elliott gets his first Cup win. After coming close last week at Talladega, he is going to enter Dover in great spirits with a worst finish of fifth on that track.
2. Kyle Larson
Fantasy NASCAR fans will get a glimpse at the changing of the guard this week. Larson has been close to perfect at Dover with six top-10s and another 11th in eight starts.
3. Martin Truex Jr.
After getting his first career victory on this track, Truex struggled for a little while, but he was back in top form in fall 2016. He won that event and swept the top five last year.
4. Kyle Busch
Three of Busch’s last six races ended in second- or first-place finishes, but they all came in the fall. In the spring AAA 400, he has not earned a top-15 in four years.
5. Kevin Harvick
Harvick’s Dover record is not as great as other tracks, but he is a tough-nosed racer who does not put a lot of stock in statistics – at least not when they don’t favor him.
6. Brad Keselowski
Just as they did on the flat one-mile track in Phoenix, Team Penske is going to struggle on the high-banked miler in Dover. Kez has only one top-five there in his last six races.
7. Jimmie Johnson
It is almost time to start trusting Johnson again. He won last year’s AAA 400 and finished third in the fall. This is a great week to see if the team has found a few of their problems.
8. Joey Logano
After scoring six consecutive top-10s from 2012 through 2014, Logano has added only two more in his last six Dover races. This is a good weekend to let him rest in the garage.
9. Clint Bowyer
An accident at Talladega ended Bowyer’s streak of six consecutive races in which he finished 11th or better. He will dust himself off and start over at Dover.
10. Daniel Suarez
In his last two starts this season, Suarez finished 10th. He also swept the top 10 at Dover last year, so we project he is going to finish near the single digits again.
11. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is known as a flat track master. In his last seven years, he has earned only one top-five at Dover and a handful of top-10s.
12. Kurt Busch
Since winning the fall 2011 AAA 400, Busch has earned only one more top-10 in his last 12 Dover starts. That was a fifth in spring 2016.
13. Ryan Blaney
The past several weeks have been difficult for Blaney and that could make him a little anxious. Dover is not the kind of track that rewards overdriving.
14. Jamie McMurray
It is going to take a lot for McMurray to turn his season around; he has only one top-10 in 10 races so far. But Dover is a track on which he swept the top 10 last year.
15. Alex Bowman
For the past five weeks, Bowman has been alternating top-10 finishes with results worse than 15. If the pattern holds, he is due to struggle, but we’ll bet he gets at least a low-teens result.
16. Aric Almirola
Almirola is still seeking his first top-five of 2018, but he has four top-10s and four more top-15s that point to consistency.
17. Ryan Newman
This is just the type of tough old track that suits Newman’s driving style, but while he has swept the top 20 in his last seven starts, he only has two top-10s in that span.
18. Erik Jones
After scoring four top-10s in five races between Las Vegas and Texas, Jones has managed to score only one top-15 in his last three starts.
19. Austin Dillon
In eight races on unrestricted ovals between the Daytona 500 and Geico 500, Dillon scored six results between 10th and 17th.
20. William Byron
We are still a little cautious about over-projecting Byron, but prior to Talladega he had a six-race, top-20 streak. This track has been kind to drivers in a No. 24 before.
21. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse entered last spring’s AAA 400 with a three-race streak of top-15s. His best result last year was a 19th, however.
22. Darrell Wallace Jr.
Wallace did not get the finish he thought the team deserved at Bristol. He has another opportunity on a similar course in Dover and it’s even possible he’ll contend for a top-15.
23. Paul Menard
The No. 21 has shown a lot of promise this year, but all Menard has to show for it is a pair of top-10s that came in the first three weeks of the season.
24. Trevor Bayne
Bayne is about to turn the wheel over to Matt Kenseth for much of the remainder of 2018 and he hopes to finish in the front half of the pack this week.
25. Kasey Kahne
Kahne finished 17th in the Geico 500, but before players completely chalk that up to the fact that he was on a restrictor-plate track, consider that he finished that well at Texas also.
26. David Ragan
On the heels of a solid top-10 last week, Ragan could be one of the best dark horses at Dover. He has several recent efforts in the 20s and can make up some ground behind the wheel.
27. AJ Allmendinger
In the past four years, Allmendinger has failed to score a single top-15 at Dover, but he does have a couple of top-20s.
28. Landon Cassill
Cassill gave this team a couple of their best runs with a 21st at Texas and a 20th at Bristol. His other two efforts were not as productive, however, so this is a good weekend to evaluate him.
29. Ty Dillon
In three starts at Dover, Dillon has finished in the teens once, the 20s on another occasion, and in the 30s. It’s anyone’s guess where he will finish this week.
30. Corey LaJoie
The book is still pretty thin on LaJoie, but his 25th-place finish at Bristol suggests he might be a much better value than your competition believes.
31. Chris Buescher
Fantasy players should pay close attention to Buescher in practice and qualification because this is a track similar to Bristol – and he loves that other high banked oval.
32. Michael McDowell
McDowell should count this race as a success if he finishes within one lap of the leaders because he has never down that before at Dover.
33. Matt DiBenedetto
DiBenedetto is coming off back-to-back races in which he finished on the lead lap. In his 117-race Cup career, he has never finished on the same lap as the leaders in three straight races.
34. Ross Chastain
Chastain has two previous starts at Dover and they were on the opposite ends of a spectrum. He finished 20th last spring and was 38th in the fall.
35. Gray Gaulding
Gaulding is giving this team the best he can. He has been running at the end of the past seven races and accumulated an average finish of 30.3.
36. Cole Custer
Dover is a tough place to come and makes one’s second career start, but since it is a driver’s track, Custer can make a difference behind the wheel.
37. Reed Sorenson
In his last five starts on this track, Sorenson has finished in the 30s each time. There is no reason to think that will change this week.
38. Derrike Cope
StarCom Racing will roll out a second car for one of the team principles this week, but it is most likely as a way to give the organization a little extra practice time.
Previous Cheat Sheets
Food City 500 (Bristol)
Geico 500 (Talladega)
Toyota Owners 400 (Richmond)
O’Reilly 500 (Texas)
STP 500 (Martinsville)
