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Life is filled with double-edged swords. This week Dover Motor Speedway become Damocles Motor Speedway. This is a track prone to streaks, so identifying the best racers is not a problem. That is the side you want to cut with. The other, equally sharp side to that blade is the Cap Managers know that as well and they are back to making six drivers greater than $10k. All of them are capable of winning; some or more likely than others.
But while these drivers are still capable of becoming king, there is also an impending sense of doom – bringing the Damocles reference full circle. Dover can slice a driver in a hurry. Cut tires or a loss of concentration propels the car into unforgiving walls. The speeds there are great enough to ricochet that car back into traffic and Dover has been known to have track-blocking incidents.
The drivers in Group B will be the differentiators of your lineup compared to the competition but starting to build your lineup there won’t move the needle much if you want to take the best in class. There are a few drivers in this range capable of winning and at least one of your lineups – if you set multiples – should be made up of only B-listers.
Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)
Kyle Larson ($11,800)
Larson has lost some of his luster with several poor finishes in the first 10 races, but it appears his championship hangover may be cured after he earned three top-fives in the last four weeks. We’re not 100 percent confident, however, because his 19th at Martinsville Speedway three weeks ago is baffling. Regardless, Dover will be kind. He’s finished third or better in his last three attempts there and has top-fives in five of his last seven. The two in which he missed that mark resulted in a 10th and 12th. Be prepared, however, because taking him means you have about $700 less to spend on each of the next five drivers and there are not a lot of great values under $7,700.
Chase Elliott ($11,300)
When he next wins on an oval, we suspect the floodgates will open for Elliott. The problem is that cap managers and sportsbook traders are treating him like he has already done than. Elliott can earn a top-five on almost any weekend, but unless he has ideal circumstances at the ends of races, he and the crew have struggled to manage the final segment. This week the initials CE stand for caveat emptor.
Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)
Our pick to win and third-place finisher are in this group. Unfortunately, both are above the average cost-per-player and taking them leaves you in a situation in which you must take most of your picks from this range with a couple of bargains tossed in.
Kevin Harvick ($9,300)
Harvick has the best recent Dover record by a wide margin. In the last seven races there he has earned two wins and never finished worse than sixth. The only thing keeping him from being a must-have this week is game management and that will vary from player to player. Harvick has only one top-five this season. That came on the short track of Richmond Raceway, but at its core, Dover is just a really big short track.
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800)
Truex may as well be a Group A driver considering how he impacts your salary cap considerations. As with Harvick’s modest 2022-to-date, there is a niggling doubt about the No. 19 in the form of last year’s 19th-place finish in the Drydene 400. Leading up to that race, however, he had two wins and eight top-fives in his last nine Dover attempts. Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) is still trying to figure out the NextGen car, but they are making progress.
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Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)
Kurt Busch ($7,500)
Both 23XI and Trackhouse Racing have the same potential, but for the moment Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan have not yet achieved the same success as Justin Marks. If you accept the premise that their probability is equal, then Busch’s last two attempts at Dover with Chip Ganassi Racing, (who’s assets now power Trackhouse), are meaningful and Busch has earned top-10 DraftKings points in his two of his last five races on the Monster Mile and had the 11th-most on two other occasions.
Austin Dillon ($7,600)
Dillon has been consistent at Dover in the DraftKings game. His last four attempts there all ended in top-15 points and he was one of the best values in the Saturday portion of the 2020 doubleheader with 68.8 put in the pot. Dillon also has one of the better points-per-thousand ratios in the field with 27.6. That is not enough to build a roster around, but it is useful information if the final slots come down to drivers in this range.
Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)
Chris Buescher ($6,400)
Each week, there is a strong temptation to make Group C picks based on the strength of a team. That is not always productive, but given the consistency that many drivers show on this rhythm track, it works this week. Buescher has hovered around the 15th-place mark in his last three Dover races. They haven’t all been great points’ days, but he has earned positive points of about 20 in the last three DraftKings contests and that is acceptable at this price range.
Cole Custer ($6,100)
Knowing there would be hard decisions to make at the top of the order, Custer was the first driver we put on our roster this week and he added about $450 to the budget for each remaining driver. Then, after adding Harvick and Truex we were almost back to square one and could make informed choices. This is precisely the type of track on which Custer should excel. And he has with a worst race finish of 11th in three starts and top-15 points’ days in all of his DraftKings contests.
The top-10 points’ earners from the 2021 Drydene 400 were: 1. Kyle Larson (164.65), 2. Alex Bowman (111.95), 3. Chase Elliott (72.55), 4. William Byron (55.95), 5. Cole Custer (54.9), 6. Daniel Suarez (50.45), 7. Kurt Busch (49.95), 8. Joey Logano (47.95), 9. Bubba Wallace (43.9), 10. Kevin Harvick (41.95).
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Last 45 Days
Driver | Avg. | Total | Avg. | This | Points | Group |
Group A |
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8.50 | 407.50 | 67.92 | $11,000 | 37.05 | A | |
10.50 | 301.30 | 50.22 | $10,300 | 29.25 | A | |
6.67 | 329.10 | 54.85 | $11,300 | 29.12 | A | |
8.50 | 282.35 | 47.06 | $10,100 | 27.96 | A | |
17.83 | 186.15 | 31.03 | $11,800 | 15.78 | A | |
20.83 | 148.00 | 24.67 | $10,600 | 13.96 | A | |
Group B |
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10.33 | 297.95 | 49.66 | $8,600 | 34.65 | B | |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 9.83 | 273.45 | 45.58 | $9,800 | 27.90 | B |
16.17 | 194.45 | 32.41 | $8,100 | 24.01 | B | |
15.67 | 187.60 | 31.27 | $9,100 | 20.62 | B | |
18.00 | 181.10 | 30.18 | $9,300 | 19.47 | B | |
19.17 | 154.85 | 25.81 | $8,800 | 17.60 | B | |
22.17 | 114.45 | 19.08 | $8,300 | 13.79 | B | |
24.00 | 115.40 | 19.23 | $9,500 | 12.15 | B | |
Group C |
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15.83 | 207.25 | 34.54 | $6,800 | 30.48 | C | |
15.33 | 209.85 | 34.98 | $7,600 | 27.61 | C | |
14.67 | 202.40 | 33.73 | $7,700 | 26.29 | C | |
20.00 | 159.10 | 26.52 | $6,600 | 24.11 | C | |
17.50 | 152.80 | 25.47 | $7,300 | 20.93 | C | |
18.50 | 156.35 | 26.06 | $7,900 | 19.79 | C | |
23.50 | 114.50 | 19.08 | $7,100 | 16.13 | C | |
24.67 | 102.95 | 17.16 | $7,500 | 13.73 | C | |
28.33 | 59.85 | 9.98 | $7,000 | 8.55 | C | |
Group D |
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16.00 | 194.15 | 32.36 | $5,200 | 37.34 | D | |
19.50 | 169.25 | 28.21 | $4,900 | 34.54 | D | |
21.17 | 144.85 | 24.14 | $5,500 | 26.34 | D | |
21.67 | 123.50 | 20.58 | $5,000 | 24.70 | D | |
20.33 | 148.70 | 24.78 | $6,400 | 23.23 | D | |
25.50 | 105.60 | 17.60 | $4,700 | 22.47 | D | |
23.00 | 115.95 | 19.33 | $5,400 | 21.47 | D | |
22.33 | 107.05 | 17.84 | $5,900 | 18.14 | D | |
19.33 | 82.80 | 27.60 | $4,600 | 18.00 | D | |
25.00 | 79.60 | 19.90 | $4,500 | 17.69 | D | |
28.83 | 48.40 | 8.07 | $6,100 | 7.93 | D | |
25.33 | 46.25 | 15.42 | $6,200 | 7.46 | D | |
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| $5,700 | - | D |
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