We’ve reached the time of year where offer lists begin to dwindle as commitment dominoes start to fall. The situation is one as old as recruiting itself and tends to create a number of two-team races. The 2025 cycle has held true to history on that front, as a handful of major national prospects have recently narrowed their focus to include two or so options.
Today, Rivals national recruiting analyst Rob Cassidy cuts through the noise and explores five recruitments that have essentially become two-team races, even if some prospects have other programs hanging around their lists as window dressing.
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KIYAN ANTHONY - USC vs. Syracuse
Syracuse seems like the obvious answer to Anthony’s recruiting riddle, given the fact that his father, Carmelo Anthony, has a building named after him on the school’s campus. The fact that the program has stumbled a bit in recent years, however, is thought to have opened the door to other schools.
Auburn technically appears on Anthony’s list of finalists, but nobody in the know expects the Tigers to be the pick come decision day. Instead, the Orange will be looking to hold off USC, which has made a serious push for Anthony under new head coach Eric Musselman. Anthony visited Los Angeles in late September and liked what he saw enough to include the Trojans on his list of finalists following the trip.
Still, Syracuse feels like the front-runner here, even if some USC smoke continues to blow.
KAYDEN MINGO - Penn State vs. Virginia Tech
Mingo has a long list of offers, but Virginia Tech and Penn State have emerged as the most likely landing spot for the New York-based guard. Notre Dame was once thought to be a serious player for Mingo, but the sun seems to have set on those days.
Today, Penn State is thought to be the front-runner with Virginia Tech, which turned up the heat on Mingo this summer, running in a close second. News has been sparse out of Mingo’s camp recently, and the silence has added a bit of intrigue to the four-star’s impending announcement.
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BRAYLON MULLINS - UConn vs. Indiana
Mullins’ recruitment feels absolutely massive for Indiana, which could use a dose of good recruiting news. There’s plenty of reason to believe the Hoosiers are an option, after all. The Indiana-born Mullins is from a part of the state in which the program typically has recruiting success, and head coach Mike Woodson prioritized the touted guard well before he became a major national prospect.
That said, the two-time defending champion Huskies are on a bit of a recruiting roll as of late and seem to be getting much of what they want on the trail. Add in the fact that Dan Hurley’s powerhouse program was able to snatch up one-time Hoosier commit Liam McNeeley last cycle, and you have a recipe for an intriguing grudge match of sorts.
North Carolina is also on Mullins’ list of finalists but feels unlikely to be the choice.
Mullins will announce his college destination on Oct. 22 during a ceremony at his high school.
DARRYN PETERSON - Kansas vs. USC
Peterson is seen as a Kansas lean, but USC holds the final visit, which is worth noting. Technically, Ohio State remains alive in this one by virtue of being included in Peterson’s self-published final three, but nobody views the Buckeyes as a real threat to sign the five-star guard.
The Jayhawks were widely thought to be the solid leader headed into Peterson’s Oct. 12 unofficial visit to USC. Buzz has been limited following the trip, which could be construed as a good or bad thing for either program. Peterson has been to USC for an official in the past and still decided to return for an October unofficial with his Nov. 1 commitment announcement closing in like a freight train. Most in the grassroots world still expect KU to be the pick, but the late visit is reason for some slight pause.
CALEB WILSON - North Carolina vs. Kentucky
First-year Kentucky head coach Mark Pope continues to build momentum in Lexington. He’s already frustrated North Carolina fans once this cycle by landing point guard Jasper Johnson, who was heavily considering UNC before Pope took the reins of the Wildcat program.
Now, the Tar Heels must guard against losing another high-profile target to Kentucky, as UK and UNC appear to be the clear front-runners to land five-star forward Caleb Wilson. A Georgia-based star, Wilson appears to be trending toward Big Blue Nation, but the Tar Heels don’t seem interested in waving the white flag just yet. Wilson last toured Chapel Hill in early October for a one-day unofficial visit, which seems to have done little to create separation for Hubert Davis’ program.
No decision date has been set just yet, but there’s some confidence starting to radiate from the Kentucky side.
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