Wisconsin got smoked by Alabama 41-10 in Week 2 before a second-half implosion versus USC caused them to cough up a 21-10 halftime lead. However, they’ve regrouped since then and rattled off two straight dominant victories over Purdue and a solid @Rutgers defense by a combined score of 94-to-13. Co-starting RB Chez Mellusi left the team, so RB1 Tawee Walker shouldered a 24-carry load for a whopping 198 rushing yards and three touchdowns last week against the Scarlet Knights. QB Braedyn Locke has completed 68% of his throws over his last two contests and spurred on the offensive revival for the Badgers in relief of Tyler Van Dyke.
Northwestern went into last week’s game against @Maryland with their backs against the wall having dropped their first three games against Power Four opponents Duke, @Washington and undefeated Indiana. The Wildcats benefitted from 3 fumble recoveries and an interception to defeat the Terrapins 37-10, despite gaining just 10 first downs and going 3-for-12 in 3rd down situations. Their offense ranks 104th in SP+ and have struggled mightily to cobble together a consistent offense. Northwestern’s bright spot is a stout run defense that is currently recording the 20th best EPA/rush and ninth-best yards per rush in FBS.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Wisconsin @ Northwestern
- Date: Saturday, October 19th, 2024
- Time: 12:00 PM EST
- Site: Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
- City: Evanston, IL
- TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Wisconsin @ Northwestern
The latest odds as of Thursday night:
- Moneyline: Wisconsin (-300), Northwestern (+240)
- Spread: Wisconsin 7.5
- Over/Under: 41.5 points
*Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The line opened at -7 and has since crawled over the key number to 7.5 and even 8 in some places. Wisconsin’s -238 moneyline open has increased to the -300 to -340 ballpark, with Northwestern following suit from +195 to +270. The total has barely budged since the open at 41 points, ticking up to 41.5 at the moment.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:
“Wisconsin has cleared the 41.5 point barrier in every game this year against FBS opponents, with the Badgers scoring 94 points over their last two games. Northwestern has been scoring more since inserting QB1 Jack Lausch as well, clearing 41.5 points in three of their last four games. I’m backing the Over 41.5 points.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Highest Ticket%
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%
Highest Handle%
· Travis Hunter 31.9%
· Ashton Jeanty 11.1%
· Cam Ward 7.8%
Biggest Liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava
Quarterback matchup for Wisconsin @ Northwestern
- Wisconsin: HC Luke Fickell transferred in Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke to lead the QB room, but unfortunately TVD got hurt early in their Week 3 contest against Alabama, with Braedyn Locke taking over from there. Locke has completed 59.5% of his passes for 904 yards and a 6-to-4 ratio in three starts, earning a 69.2 PFF offensive grade thus far. Locke ranks 62nd out of 71 FBS P4 signal callers with a 24% 3rd down conversion rate, which needs improvement. That being said, his 20-of-28 for 240 yards and a 1-1 ratio showing in a convincing victory over Rutgers last week was the best performance of his young career.
- Northwestern: The Wildcats tried starting dual-threat Mississippi State transfer QB Mike Wright until he completed 57.6% of his passes with a 0-to-1 ratio and 63.1 PFF passing grade through the first two games. QB Jack Lausch assumed the QB1 mantle and took some lumps in his first FBS start against Washington. He completed a miserable 30% of his throws with two interceptions against the Huskies before settling in for 243 passing yards and two touchdown passes against Indiana. It all came together for Lausch last weekend in a 37-10 win over Maryland, with his 11.3 yards per attempt representing a career high.
Trends & recent stats for Wisconsin and Northwestern
- Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS, but 4-2 to the Over. Cutting down on their 10 turnovers (95th) would go a long way towards fixing that ATS deficit.
- Wisconsin skill players have fumbled five times, most among Big Ten Teams. Zero of Wisconsin’s 13 receptions in close & late situations have resulted in touchdowns.
- Northwestern’s offense has thrown for 1,080 passing yards, which is the 22nd-lowest mark among FBS programs. Wisconsin has allowed 168 passing yards per game to this point, 17th-best among FBS defenses.
- The Wildcats are fielding the 22nd ranked SP+ defense and have been very successful at suppressing big plays, ranking 14th in explosiveness and 21st in plays of 20+. They’ve done great work in their own end of the field, ranking 12th with 3.2 points per scoring allowed, while also creating 10 turnovers (26th in FBS).
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