Through half a season, this has already been one of the wildest seasons in modern college football history, though it’s not quite as upset-filled as the 2007 season that began with Appalachian State’s upset of Michigan, saw three weekends in which the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the country both lost and ended with the crowning of two-loss LSU as the national champion. But ... there’s still the whole second half of the 2024 season to go, so you never know if we’ll top it.
We’ve seen three different No. 1 teams in the AP poll through seven weeks of action, with Alabama’s short reign atop the sport giving us the most memorable upset of the season, as unranked Vanderbilt beat the Crimson Tide for the Commodores’ first-ever win over the No. 1 team in the country. That upset — forever immortalized by Diego Pavia‘s f-bomb on national television and aerial photographs of Vandy fans carrying the goalposts down Broadway — was just one of five in Week 6 in which a top-11 team went down. Field storms have become a common occurrence from coast to coast.
College football can be incredibly unpredictable. That is one of the most obvious and important takeaways I have from the first half of the 2024 regular season.
Here are a few other lessons I’ve learned so far:
The expanded College Football Playoff is already working out great.
We haven’t even made it to the unveiling of the final CFP bracket or first-round games on campus, but I already love the new world in which we live. The new 12-team Playoff means increased access and more teams in the mix for at-large spots later into the season than ever before. We’ve already experienced the benefits of this, as teams like Alabama (after losing to Vandy) and Notre Dame (after losing to Northern Illinois) remain part of the Playoff picture — as do all one- and two-loss teams. We may even have three-loss teams alive come late November! It’s been refreshing to not see teams get written off after a September loss, as they used to be in the four-team CFP era.
That’s not to say that bad losses don’t hurt. Alabama fans did not immediately move on from the Vandy loss or Notre Dame fans after NIU simply because they could still make the Playoff. The sky still felt like it was falling, which means that these regular-season games still mean something significant. I think it’s more than OK that teams no longer have to chase perfection to get a chance to play for a national championship. And knowing that both teams could still make the CFP when all is said and done did not take anything away from top-five games like Oregon-Ohio State or Georgia-Alabama.
A side benefit of the new CFP has been an increased focus on the Group of 5. Knowing that the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion will automatically make the 12-team bracket has kept us engaged not just in high-profile Power 4-Group of 5 games (which delivered some notable upsets!) but also individual G5 conference races. Boise State and UNLV both acquitted themselves well in nonconference play, which sets the eventual Mountain West champion up well (assuming it is one of them) compared to the champions of the American or the Sun Belt. But we don’t know for sure, so we’ll have to keep close tabs on Tulane, Navy, Army and everyone else who is squarely in the mix in those leagues.
There are many more teams with so much still to play for, which is why so many games have had a great sense of urgency. I can only imagine how exhilarating the stretch run of the season will be.
Realignment has given us some monster showdowns — and tougher schedules.
Oregon-Ohio State is now a Big Ten game. Georgia-Texas is now an SEC game. They’re two of the three top-five matchups we’ll see take place before the end of October. These are the kind of games we used to see scheduled every once in a blue moon as nonconference blockbusters. But top-tier teams didn’t always play challenging nonconference schedules, and with so many games of that caliber scheduled a decade or more in advance, it was hard to predict the state of either program by the time kickoff rolled around.
But now, in a 16-team SEC that includes Oklahoma and Texas, we’ll see more games between the sport’s bluest of bluebloods each fall. In the 18-team Big Ten that includes its four west coast schools, we’ll get games like Oregon-Ohio State and USC-Michigan on an annual basis. Monster matchups are why these leagues added big brands in the first place, and this was always going to be the benefit of getting to this side of the latest round of realignment. Now that we’re here, it’s pretty awesome to watch.
These loaded schedules do mean that we will see teams like Michigan and Oklahoma lose more games than we’re used to, though. That’s what happens when you’re rebuilding but still required to play the big boys in your own conference. And it’ll be tough for middle-of-the-pack Big Ten and SEC teams to leap frog others in their leagues with both so stacked now as well. But, hey! At least multi-loss teams stay in the CFP mix. That helps.
The first half of the season has given us some great surprise teams.
Vanderbilt is 4-2 after its huge upset of then-No. 1 Alabama and its regular-sized upset of Kentucky last weekend (in a game in which the ‘Dores were double-digit underdogs). Quarterback Diego Pavia and co. have been one of the most delightful stories of the season and a prime example of how the transfer portal can quickly turn around a program, even one as downtrodden as Vandy.
Speaking of the portal, how about 6-0 Indiana? First-year coach Curt Cignetti came from James Madison, and he decided to bring most of his staff with him and a bunch of players, too. He added Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, and — boom — he’s got the Hoosiers off to their best start since 1967. Cignetti told us all he was good at this, so we have no one but ourselves to blame for not predicting he’d win big in Year 1.
We’ve also got 6-0 Iowa State for the first time since 1938 (!) and a 6-0 BYU team that no one saw coming tied with Texas Tech atop the Big 12 standings. And how about Army and Navy? The two service academies are a combined 11-0 on the season, and both were ranked this week in the AP poll for the first time since 1960. It’s great to see both programs having success at the same time, adding fuel to the fire that is the annual Army-Navy game while also setting up a fascinating wrinkle for the new expanded CFP. Both teams will be eligible for that Group of 5 champion spot in the bracket, but the selection committee will have to make that determination before the annual rivalry game. So, yes, Army or Navy could make the CFP if it wins the American conference championship game. And while it is unlikely, that’s also just the kind of craziness I expect to see in a season like this.
The first half of the season has also delivered some major disappointments.
We’ll start with Alabama, which is fortunate to be 5-1 after a two-point win over South Carolina. The Crimson Tide has not played well for about 10 quarters now, dating back to halftime of the game against Georgia. Though Alabama hung on to beat the ‘Dawgs thanks to a spectacular catch-and-run by freshman Ryan Williams, what’s happened since that game has alarm bells going off in Tuscaloosa midway through Kalen DeBoer‘s first season. First, Alabama lost to Vanderbilt in a game in which it was thoroughly outplayed. (Nick Saban never lost to Vandy, as we all know.) Then, the Tide nearly lost to South Carolina, with the Gamecocks having multiple opportunities to stay in the game and chances to win it late. Now, Saban spoiled us and convinced us that it was easier than it seemed to stay atop the sport no matter what roster or staff turnover occurred each offseason. But there’s very little patience in a town known for its national championships for the kind of dropoff that includes a loss to Vandy and a defense that gets gashed weekly. Alabama isn’t playing like it’s a CFP-caliber team right now, which puts the Tide on this list.
Ole Miss is another team that is not playing like a Playoff team, and after a pair of losses to Kentucky and LSU, it also doesn’t look like a team that’s going to get a chance to make the field. And that was the goal for the Rebels, who went all-in this offseason with portal additions aimed at helping Lane Kiffin‘s program take its next step forward. Ole Miss was supposed to be tough enough and talented enough to beat a top-15 team on the road — cough, LSU, cough — and instead found a way to lose to a team that didn’t lead for a single second of the game. The Rebs do not have a lot of opportunities left for signature wins and are staring down the barrel of a massively disappointing season.
Such is life in Los Angeles for Lincoln Riley, too. His USC team already has three losses that came in the most painful of ways. The Trojans could be unbeaten, but instead they blew late leads to Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State, and Riley has now lost eight of his last 13 games at USC. It’s a frustrating situation for a coach who is paid a lot of money to build a national title contender. This team is not that. (Neither is Michigan this season, thanks to its anemic offense. But the Wolverines still hoisted a national championship trophy this calendar year, so I’ll rule them exempt from this list for the time being.)
This might be the most interesting Heisman Trophy race we’ve seen in some time.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is the favorite to win college football’s greatest individual honor here in Week 8, per BetMGM. He didn’t even have odds to win the Heisman back in the preseason! But he’s accounted for 1,248 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns so far this season, which puts him within striking distances of Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record of 2,628 yards set in 1988 if he keeps up his pace. (And if Boise State stops sitting him; he sat out the second half of the Broncos’ games against Portland State and Utah State because they were up comfortably.) Jeanty is averaging 9.9 yards per carry (which is wild) and has forced 48 missed tackles so far this season. He’s appointment viewing, and the coolest part of this season he’s having is how quickly everyone realized it was happening. I’m not worried that Heisman voters are missing out; every time I open social media, I’m hit with Jeanty highlights and NFL Draft buzz. It’s so great to see a non-quarterback and a non-Power 5 player become a household name for sports fans.
Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter is also a household name and for good reason. When healthy, he’s one of the best receivers in the country *and* one of the best cornerbacks in the country. Prior to suffering an injury in Saturday’s game against Kansas State, Hunter was averaging 132 snaps per game, per PFF. His status is uncertain right now, but assuming he’s able to play again this season he will remain in the mix for at least a trip to New York City as a Heisman finalist. What he’s doing this season is unprecedented, and it deserves to be treated as such.
So, we’ve got a Heisman race that involves two non-QBs who play for Boise State and Colorado. That’s pretty awesome and certainly different from the usual races that pretty much only involve quarterbacks on CFP contenders. Of course, that’s not to say that Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, Miami’s Cam Ward and Texas’ Quinn Ewers won’t be in the mix down the stretch; it’s too early to count any of them out, and they will have opportunities to play on a big stage that could sway voters. We don’t yet know who will lift that trophy come December, but right now that doesn’t matter much. What we do know is that it’s already been a more diverse race than we’re used to seeing. And I can’t wait to see where it goes.
