Indiana has taken the Big Ten by storm in HC Curt Cignetti’s maiden season at the helm of the IU program, as the stand a perfect 7-0 heading into their Week 9 showdown against Washington. The Hoosiers rattled off four straight easy wins before toppling Maryland 42-28 in what has been the closest margin of victory of any game this season, 14 points. IU is coming off a resounding 56-7 win over a retooled Nebraska program that entered the contest at a strong 5-1. While Indiana’s offense has been one of the most potent units in the country, ranking first in success rate (60%) and second in EPA/Play, QB Kurtis Rourke injured his thumb last game and will sit this one out. Tennessee four-star transfer Tayven Jackson will draw the start in his absence.
The Huskies are 4-3 overall and 2-2 in Big Ten play during their inaugural campaign in the loaded B10 conference. Washington has traded decisions since Week 2, dropping a 24-19 decision to in-state rival Wazzu before bouncing back to beat Northwestern the following week. Since then, they’ve lost a heartbreaker to @Rutgers where the Huskies boasted a sky-high 97% win expectancy, beat a rebuilding Michigan, and got destroyed 40-16 at the hands of @Iowa last weekend. Washington has gone 4-1 at home but have yet to win a game on the road, having played just two games away from Husky Stadium thus far in 2024..
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Washington @ Indiana live
· Date: Saturday, October 26th, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Memorial Stadium
· City: Bloomington, IL
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Washington @ Indiana - Week 9
The latest odds as of Thursday:
- Moneyline: Washington (+200), Indiana (-250)
- Spread: Indiana -6.5
- Over/Under: 53.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
This contest opened at Indiana -7 and has held pretty steady, with some books dipping below the key number and offering -6.5. The moneyline opened at Indiana -238 and has ticked up slightly to -265 depending on where you look, while Washington is trading in the +195 to +205 ballpark. The total came out at 52 but has since moved up a bit to 53.5 in most places.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:
“Washington has cleared the 53.5 game total just one time this season and is fielding the 26th overall SP+ defense. While Indiana has been scoring points in bunches, they are now forced to rely on backup QB Tayven Jackson to run the offense. I think that’s enough of a deterrent to keep this game under 53.5 total points.”
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Quarterback matchup for Washington @ Indiana
- Indiana: QB Nathan Rourke portaled in from Ohio this offseason, which has proved to be a stroke of genius with Rourke leading the Hoosiers to an unblemished 7-0 record. He’s completing 74.5% of his passes (#1 in FBS) with a sparkling 15-3 TD/INT ratio and a 91.7 PFF passing grade that ranks #1 in the country. He’s stretching the field too, ranking 9th among Power Four programs with a 10.4 yard ADOT, so his elite completion rate isn’t a product of checkdowns or passes behind the line of scrimmage which are easier to complete than a 15-yard out-breaker in traffic. He will be sorely missed this week, with backup QB Tayven Jackson taking the starting reps against Washington.
- Washington: Will Rogers began his collegiate career at Mississippi State five years ago as a handpicked star recruit for renowned air raid guru Mike Leach. To date, Rogers is one of the most accomplished signal callers in FBS, accruing 14,065 passing yards with a 107-to-30 ratio over his half-decade leading MSU/Washington’s offenses. 2024 has been no exception, with Rogers completing 71.2% of his passes for 1,820 yards and a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio. His 81st percentile PFF passing grade is the second highest single-season mark in his career to this point. Freshman QB Demond Williams is a dynamic dual-threat option and is brought in occasionally for short yardage work. He will take over in 2025 or in the event of an injury to Roger.
Trends & recent stats for Washington and Indiana
- Indiana isn’t just winning games, they’re also covering at a robust 86% clip (6-1) while doing so by 16.6 points per game, which is comfortably the largest cover margin in FBS. They’re also sitting at a cool 6-1 to the OVER.
- While Indiana’s offense gets a lot of ink, their defense is quietly the 22nd ranked overall unit according to SP+ ranking 8th in EPA/dropback and 11th in EPA/rush.
- Washington’s offense is targeting inline receivers/tight ends at a 17.3% clip, which ranks 20th overall. The national average for TE usage in the pass game checks in at 12%.
- Despite ranking 19th in offensive success rate the Huskies are having trouble with short fields, ranking 118th in points per scoring opportunity and 114th with a 50% red zone touchdown rate.
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