Penn State easily dispatched West Virginia in Week 1, then walked a tightrope in Week 2 against MAC foe Bowling Green who managed to keep the game competitive until the very end in a tough 34-27 victory, despite a projected 20.3-point scoring margin based on game flow. In their highest profile matchup of the season PSU smothered #19 Illinois’ power-run game, holding the Illini to a paltry 34 rush yards on 32 attempts en route to a dominant 21-7 victory. Penn State’s stout defense ranks third nationally, as the 6th-ranked Nittany Lions’ have gone Under their allotted point total in 3-of-4 games this season.
With HC Chip Kelly off to coordinate Ohio State’s offensive juggernaut and DC D’Anton Lynn moving across the city to USC, UCLA’s eight-win campaign of a year ago feels like a distant memory. They managed to squeak by Hawaii 16-13 in Week 1 before taking three straight spankings at the hands of FBS opponents by a combined score of 100-42. They are amongst the least efficient offenses in the P4, ranking 127th in success rate and 122nd in EPA/play. It’s not much better on the defensive side, ranking 130th in 3-and-out rate (17%) and 126th in defensive success rate.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to watch UCLA @ Penn State live
- Date: Saturday, October 5th, 2024
- Time: 12:00 PM EST
- Location: Beaver Stadium
- City: University Park, PA
- TV/Streaming: Fox
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Latest Game odds for UCLA @ Penn State - Week 6
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
- Moneyline: Penn State (-10000), UCLA (+1800)
- Spread: Penn State -27.5 points
- Over/Under: 46.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
The books bulls-eyed the spread right at the jump, opening at UCLA -27.5 and hanging there with the exception of a stray -28 or two floating around. We’ve seen a slight uptick in the total however, opening at 45 but currently settling in the 46-to-46.5 range. BetMGM has the PSU money line set at a market-high -10,000 on PSU, but you can find the ML anywhere from PSU -3,200 to -3,500 if you shop it.
NBCSports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes only one of these teams will be contributing to the Game Total:
“I have a hard time envisioning UCLA mounting any sort of offensive attack whatsoever if QB Garbers doesn’t play, and he hasn’t suited up yet as of mid-week. With these two teams already a combined 6-2 to the Under, I have to back the UNDER 46.5 points in a lopsided affair.”
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From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Week 6 Insights
Most bet games (tickets)
- Syracuse-UNLV
- Michigan State-Oregon
- Tennessee-Arkansas
Most bet teams (tickets)
- Tennessee -13.5
- UNLV -6.5
- Michigan +1.5
Most bet teams (handle)
- Navy -9
- Alabama -23.5
- Tennessee -13.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
- Michigan State-Oregon 52.5
- Iowa-Ohio State 45.5
- Syracuse-UNLV 57.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
- Baylor-Iowa State 44.5
- Indiana-Northwestern 41.5
- USC-Minnesota 49.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
- Michigan +100
- Missouri +115
- Michigan State +1200
Quarterback matchup for UCLA @ Penn State
- Penn State: Standing 6’5/238, highly touted QB prospect Drew Allar evoked memories of the great Josh Allen coming out of high school. While he completed last season with a sterling 25-2 ratio, Allar’s 59.6% completion rate and 6.7 YPA left much to be desired from a performance standpoint. New OC Andy Kotelnicki has let Allar off the least more than his predecessor, as Allar’s 10.6 ADOT is a noticeable jump from his 8.0 ADOT from a year ago. Despite the 25% increase in target depth, Allar is completing a crisp 71% of his passes and looks much more decisive in his decision making, after looking somewhat methodical in 2023. If Allar can continue to maintain his elevated level of play, PSU could very well challenge for the Big Ten crown.
- UCLA: It has been a challenging season for QB Ethan Garbers thus far, as his 57% completion rate, 3-to-6 ratio and 65.8 NFL passer rating will attest. He’s already been sacked 14 times this season (sacked 12 times in all of 2023) behind a sieve-like offensive line that is allowing a ghastly 42% pressure rate that ranks 129th in FBS. His PFF overall grade has plummeted from 77.7 a year ago to 50.3 in 2024, a grim harbinger for the Bruins’ dwindling chances of turning their season around.
Player news & recent stats
- These two teams are a combined 2-6 to the Under this year, with UCLA ranking 1-4 ATS since 2023 when their opponents break 3 or more explosive runs. Penn State averages 10.9 yards per successful rush (28th in FBS)
- It’s been a full-fledged fire drill every time UCLA tries to pass, with bookends LT Reuben Unije allowing a 6.4% pressure rate and RT Garrett DiGiorgio sporting a brutal 8.6% pressure rate. QB Ethan Garbers departed their previous game with a concussion and has yet to take a practice rep yet this week. Inexperienced sophomore backup QB Justyn Martin will start if Garbers cannot go.
- PSU Edge defender Dani Dennis-Sutton leads the team with 8 pressure and a 15.4% pressure rate, while his counterpart Abdul Carter leads in sacks with 3.0 and also sports an impressive 11.1% pressure rate. As a unit, PSU’s defense ranks 3rd nationally with a 43% pressure rate.
- The Nittany Lions offensive line hasn’t been the elite unit of yesteryear thus far, ranking 57th in sacks per dropback and 73rd in sacks per pressure. Credit to their two guards, LG Olaivavega Ioane and RG Sal Wormly who have yet to allow a pressure in 2024.
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