Remove the return touchdowns and the two more scores set up by Xavier Watts’s lengthy interception returns and it could be reasonably argued Notre Dame beat USC by a more genuine score of 20-13 two weeks ago, not 48-20, before the No. 14 Irish (6-2) reached their first idle week of the season.
Of the No. 24 Trojans’ many flaws, allowing havoc is hardly chief among them, ranking No. 69 in the country in giving up pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss.
Of Pittsburgh’s many flaws, the same can be said, allowing havoc hardly chief among them, but the Panthers (2-5) do rank worse in the category, at No. 77 in the country. And those may be the kind of mistakes that once again spark Notre Dame’s inconsistent offense.
The Irish scoring 48 points while gaining just 251 yards two weeks ago may be an unofficial record of a ratio. Needing just 5.2 yards per point scored was less than half any season ratio for Notre Dame since 2017 (as far back as usually feels pertinent in these conversations, especially when just attempting to create context here). The most efficient scoring offense in that range was 2019’s, which needed 11.7 yards per point scored.
“Things don’t happen by chance,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said Monday. “You have to reflect on your preparation, the game plan, on everything we did to make sure our guys could go and perform that way. We have to continue to build on that.”
Building on that showing is one thing, but continuing in that style is, in theory, not sustainable.
But Pittsburgh may set up the Irish to once again capitalize on mistakes.
The Panthers offense is dreadful. The only thing it does worse than throw the ball is run the ball. If that strikes as an odd sentence, take it as an emphasis of how bad Pittsburgh is running the ball. The Panthers’ greater problem, though, is they fail on 65.8 percent of their dropbacks. Looking at that through the havoc lens, 28 Pittsburgh passes have been broken up and 14 dropbacks have resulted in sacks, 18.75 percent of Panthers’ pass plays.
And that is an area Notre Dame is ideally suited to take advantage of, boasting the country’s No. 1 pass defense in terms of expected points added per dropback against, a cause furthered by breaking up a pass or sacking the quarterback on 19.58 percent of dropbacks. If it is up to Irish defensive coordinator Al Golden, Notre Dame will be only better-suited to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s need to pass.
“We want to get better at tackling,” he said Tuesday. “We want to get better at ball disruptions. We want to get better on third (down). All those things.”
Sometimes teams rush against you a lot because you have the No. 1 pass defense in the country (ND), and sometimes teams rush against you a lot because your rush defense is only okay, actually kinda bad (Pitt). https://t.co/74jI3X3x4J
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 24, 2023
The Panthers’ limited success against Wake Forest last week came entirely through the air, junior quarterback Christian Veilleux converted eight third downs on 14 pass attempts, including a touchdown, while lead rusher C’Bo Flemister — yes, former Notre Dame running back C’Bo Flemiser — took three late-down carries for no conversions.
But the Irish are not a defense to throw against, and that should set up Notre Dame’s offense once again.
As little as the Irish offense had to do against USC, it still did it. Three first-half interceptions became three Notre Dame touchdowns. The Irish turn quality drives into appropriate points better than most teams, and that has included doing so with limited receivers of late.
20.5
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 24, 2023
that's two key numbers and moving toward a third.
I'm inclined to think Notre Dame's receivers are healthy.
Notre Dame should have more healthy targets available, presuming the idle week did some good for junior receiver Jayden Thomas’s and freshman receiver Jaden Greathouse’s tender hamstrings.
“It’s been a hard stretch for [Thomas and Greathouse] and a few of them to get healthy through that eight-game stretch,” Irish offensive coordinator Gerad Parker said Tuesday. “We feel like they’ve come out healthy, so we’ll see kind of a full look of our guys again and be able to play fast and play healthy.”
Notre Dame excelled with chunk plays in its first four games of the season. At first glance, those moments are now dismissed as against lesser defenses, but the Irish enjoyed five explosive passing plays at North Carolina State, the No. 30 defense currently in the SP+ rankings and the No. 25 EPA pass defense.
In its last four games, Notre Dame managed a total of nine explosive passing plays.
The Irish may not need explosive plays if the defense abuses Pittsburgh as it did USC, but with Thomas and Greathouse expected back at or close to full strength, those big plays just may show up again.