Usually, this time of year is reserved for hot-seat talk. But that chatter has been quieter than usual to date because so many big jobs turned over the last few years — and it got even quieter on Thursday when Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin announced that Billy Napier would remain the Gators’ head football coach into the 2025 season.
Some Florida fans were confused by the proclamation. Others were apoplectic. After all, Napier’s overall record is 15-18 in two-plus seasons. But, as college sports heads into its revenue-sharing era (which will cost athletic departments like Florida’s upwards of $20 million annually, starting next fall), it can’t be too shocking to see a decision like this. How would Stricklin justify a $26 million buyout — and the millions more to buy out Napier’s staff and hire a new coach and his staff — while adding a significant new annual expense like that? Even if deep-pocketed donors cover most or all, it would have been a terrible look for an athletic department that might soon cut scholarships for Olympic sports or raise season-ticket prices for fans to help increase revenue to offset the cost of paying players.
Keep this dynamic in mind as we wait for other schools to make determinations on their coaches’ futures. Well, and consider the fact that Baylor’s Dave Aranda and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman may also have done enough to keep their jobs by what their teams have done on the field, too. So, it’s quite possible that the three coaches who began the fall on the hottest seats in the country may end up keeping their jobs come 2025.
Which means ... we can turn our attention fully to the field. We’ve got a few big matchups in SEC country, as teams jockey for positioning in both the SEC race and the College Football Playoff picture.
Here’s what I’m watching for in Week 11:
Can Carson Beck get back on track?
The Georgia quarterback has now thrown 11 interceptions over the past five games. It’s incredibly frustrating and confusing to see this kind of regression from Beck, who was quite good over the course of his junior season. He’s throwing an interception every 26.4 pass attempts this season. Last year, it was one interception per 69.5 attempts. He’s putting Georgia in bad situations pretty regularly, which is not great to pair with a weak rushing attack (that ranks 97th in FBS). Of course, the ‘Dawgs are quite good defensively, and that’s a huge reason they’re 7-1 and No. 3 in the country. But to contend for a national title — let alone actually win one — Beck will need to play a whole lot better than he has. Will that happen this Saturday against an Ole Miss pass defense that leaves a lot to be desired? Or will the Rebels’ defensive front have a field day, and Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart re-enter the Heisman Trophy conversation?
Can Alabama turn the Tide and win a big game on the road?
The Crimson Tide have lost their last two road games (to Vanderbilt and then Tennessee), and neither was particularly pretty. LSU is especially difficult to beat at home at night. And it’s do-or-die time for both two-loss teams trying to stay in the mix for CFP at-large consideration. Alabama was the selection committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team (at No. 11) in its first set of rankings, while LSU was just four spots behind and just on the outside looking in for the first projected bracket. We don’t know for sure that a three-loss SEC team would be out of luck, but neither of these teams wants to test that theory — even Alabama, which owns one of the best wins in the country, over Georgia.
I’ll be interested to see which version of Garrett Nussmeier shows up to play on Saturday night. He’s coming off his worst performance of the season in the loss to LSU, a game in which he completed just 50 percent of his passing attempts and threw three picks. But he’s also been terrific (particularly late against USC and late against Ole Miss), playing his way into the annual NFL Draft conversation. He can be the SEC’s best quarterback at times, but he can also be one of the league’s most turnover-prone signal-callers.
Is Colorado ready for its close-up?
I ask this somewhat facetiously. Of course Colorado is always ready for the spotlight. But it’s been a while since the nation has turned its full attention to the Buffs — and this time, they are fully deserving of it. Colorado is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in Big 12 play, which means the Buffs are tied for second place in the league standings. They have genuinely improved in Deion Sanders’ second season, and they boast a Heisman frontrunner in two-way star Travis Hunter. Shedeur Sanders is still one of the best and most exhilarating quarterbacks in the country, and now he’s facing off against a Texas Tech team that just upset then-No. 11 Iowa State a week ago. This game should be quite fun, and it’s got more at stake than I would have thought even a few weeks ago.
Are the Hoosiers ready for the bullseye on their back?
Indiana has gone from complete surprise to the No. 1 story of the season in two months. And now that the Hoosiers are 9-0 for the first time in program history and squarely in the CFP mix, they’re going to have to get used to high expectations. Indiana — the program that has lost more games than anyone else in college football history — is a 14.5-point favorite over Michigan — the winningest program in college football history and the school that just won a national championship in this sport 10 months ago. Yes, the Wolverines are nowhere near the same team they were back in January when they won it all. But the point I’m trying to make is more about Indiana. This is what we now expect of the Hoosiers, who have been obliterating any and all opponents they’ve faced this season. Even when we thought they were finally tested a week ago, when they trailed 10-0 to Michigan State, they responded by scoring 47 unanswered points. So, yes, Indiana does seem ready for this moment and getting everyone’s best shot. But games against Michigan, Ohio State and Purdue — three teams that head coach Curt Cignetti has specifically called out — will be a different ordeal. Well, maybe? It’s also possible the Hoosiers continue to roll, and this is simply the new world we live in.
