USC defeated LSU 27-20 in a thrilling season opener, but have since lost four of their last five games and carry a 3-4 record into Friday night’s home matchup against a similarly reeling Rutgers squad. In the midst of a three-game losing streak with each loss by one score or less, USC has been on the cusp of victory in each narrow defeat. Though HC Lincoln Riley’s offense has been very good once again ranking 10th in FBS according to SP+, they’ve committed 11 turnovers (83rd) and have struggled to hit big plays ranking 122nd in passing explosiveness. Year 1 DC D’Anton Lynn’s defense ranks 60th and is allowing a jarring 70% completion rate (131st) to go with a lowly 97th EPA/play per rush.
Everything was going according to plan for HC Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights after starting 4-0 with a pair of razor-close wins over @Virginia Tech and Washington. However, since then Rutgers has lost three straight Big Ten conference games to @Nebraska, Wisconsin and a heartbreaking 35-32 defeat at the hands of UCLA. Their offense has been plagued by bumbling pass game execution (127th in Completion rate) and an ineffectual defensive line that is allowing a 50% rushing success rate (121st). RU now faces the unenviable task of traveling three time zones on a short week to play Friday night in SoCal.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Rutgers @ USC live
· Date: Saturday, October 26th, 2024
· Time: 11:00 PM EST
· Site: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
· City: Evanston, IL
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Rutgers @ USC - Week 9
The latest odds as of Wednesday morning:
- Moneyline: USC (-600), Rutgers (+460)
- Spread: Rutgers 14.5
Over/Under: 54.5 points
*Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The game opened at -13.5 and quickly spiked to -14.5 in most spots by the time Monday morning rolled around. The USC moneyline varies from -650 to -530, while Rutgers is trading at +390 to +460. The game total has stayed relatively unchanged in the 54/54.5 range in early trading.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:
“Both programs are on three-game losing streaks and desperately need a win to stop the slide. Rutgers just allowed 35 points to a listless UCLA offense, while USC has cleared 54.5 points in 3 of their last 4 games. I like the Over 54.5 points on the game total.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Georgia +450 to +350
- Tennessee +2000 to +1600
- Alabama +850 to +2000
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 14.9%
- Texas 12.3%
- Georgia 11.2%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 19.2%
- Georgia 17.2%
- Texas 11.9%
Biggest Liabilities
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Rutgers @ USC
- USC: Junior QB Miller Moss has a high bar to clear in trying to replace Heisman winner Caleb Williams. He has completed 64% of his passes for 1,947 yards and a 14-to-6 ratio, with his 6.8 yards per attempt ranking 75th out of 99 qualifying signal callers. Moss’ 84.8 PFF passing grade slots in as the 16th best mark in FBS, but his 7.6 ADOT (85th of 99) shows a short-yardage oriented distribution pattern. The conservative nature of USC’s pass game has been a major contributing factor to USC’s dismal 112th FBS ranking in pass plays of 20+ yards (13%).
- Rutgers: With RU fielding one of the worst quarterback rooms among power conference schools, HC Greg Schiano hit the portal this offseason and brought in Minnesota transfer QB Athan Kaliakmanis to run the offense. Kaliakmanis has taken every snap and brought stability to the position despite rather uninspiring numbers completing 53% of his passes for 6.9 YPA and a middling 8-to-5 ratio. He has done a great job of handling the rush with a 13.4% pressure-to-sack rate and has been victimized by poor hands with his receivers dropping 11% of his on-target passes thus far. Kaliakmanis has boosted his PFF passing grade from the 58th percentile to the 77th%, so he has displayed noticeable improvement in his passing acumen from a year ago.
Rutgers and USC trends & recent stats
- USC QB Miller Moss has hit just two pass plays of 40+ yards in 284 pass attempts this season, which is the 2nd-lowest explosive pass rate (0.7%) in the FBS behind only Minnesota QB Max Brosmer (1-of-210 | 0.5%).
- The Trojans’ defensive line ranks 113th with a 3% havoc rate and is recording a 23% pressure rate that ranks 129th in FBS. In 24 red zone pass attempts they’ve yet to post a sack, which is the worst pass attempts-to-RZ sack ratio in the nation.
- Rutgers is allowing an average of 41.3 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the 9th-highest mark in the nation. For perspective, Texas Tech ranks last in FBS allowing 61.6 receiving yards per game to RBs.
- Rutgers is scoring an average of 2.1 rushing touchdowns per game this season, which is the 7th-highest mark in FBS. USC is allowing 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, which ranks 15th out of 16 Big Ten defenses.
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