Illinois (4-1, 1-1 in Big Ten) opened the season with signature victories over Kansas and @Nebraska. However, a loaded Penn State team limited the Illini to 34 rushing yards on 32 carries, handing Illinois a 21-7 loss before their Week 6 Bye. The Illini aren’t running the ball in a manner befitting HC Brett Bielema, ranking 109th in rushing success rate and 84th in EPA/rush. However, QB Luke Altmyer sports a 70% completion rate (19th) with a 0.7% interception rate (10th in FBS) for a very competent passing offense. Defensively they are strong against the pass ranking 22nd in EPA/dropback and 26th in raw QBR.
Purdue (1-4, 2-2 in Big Ten) has fallen on hard times in Year 2 of the HC Ryan Walters era, and if the Boilermakers don’t improve on their 0-4 record against FBS programs then we could conceivably see another coach in West Lafayette next season. The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS and rank 134th in Cover PPG with a brutal -19.1 margin of loss ATS. With SP+ rating Purdue as having the 89th ranked offense and 90th ranked defense, you can make a case that they’re the worst Power Four program in the country right now.
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Game Details and How to watch Purdue @ Illinois live
- Date: Saturday, October 12, 2024
- Time: 3:30 PM EST
- Site: Memorial Stadium
- City: Champaign, IL
- TV/Streaming: FS1
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Game odds for Purdue @ Illinois
The latest odds as of Thursday night:
- Moneyline: Illinois (-1600), Purdue (+900)
- Spread: Illinois -21.5
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
This game opened with Illinois favored by -17.5, but quickly shot up to the current -21/21.5 range. There was a similar shift in the moneyline market with Illinois going from -1,200 to -1,400, and Purdue escalating from +750 to +1,100. The game total opened at 49 points and has stayed relatively stable at 48.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes points will be aplenty in this contest:
“I sincerely believe Purdue is the worst Power Four team in the country, but they have a decent pass rush that could harass Illinois QB Luke Altmyer thanks to a leaky Illini offensive line. I’m backing the UNDER 48.5 points on this fairly aggressive Game Total.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Ohio State +375 to +300
- Texas +500 to +450
- Georgia +650 to +500
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 15.4%
- Texas 11.9%
- Georgia 11.5%
Highest Handle%
- Georgia 17.6%
- Ohio State 17.3%
- Texas 11.6%
Biggest Liabilities
- Tennessee
- Ohio State
- Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Purdue @ Illinois
- Illinois: QB Luke Altmyer has improved massively from a year ago when he completed 64% of his throws for 6.9 YPA and a 13-to-10 ratio. Those numbers have increased to a 70% completion rate, 8.0 YPA and a sterling 11-to-1 ratio. He has led the Illini to the 29th ranked passing success rate in the country, but they also rank 99th in passing explosiveness and 102nd with 7.6 air yards per target. The addition of UTSA WR transfer Zachari Franklin, combined with the emergence of WR Pat Bryant, has helped Altmyer take the next step in his development.
- Purdue: Texas transfer QB Hudson Card is averaging 147 passing yards per game with a 63.4% completion rate and 7-to-4 ratio for a listless offense that is accruing 11 points per game against FBS opponents. On a per-play basis Card is performing at a similar level to his 2023 campaign, increasing his PFF passing grade from the 71st-to-75th percentile. Despite competent quarterback play from Card, Purdue’s offense is not progressing as expected.
Trends & recent stats for Purdue and Illinois
- Purdue wideouts have gained 484 yards on 44 receptions for an average of 11.0 yards per catch, which ranks 4th-worst among B10 programs. Illinois allows 10.1 YPC which ranks 20th in FBS.
- Former Illinois DC Ryan Walters has yet to recapture the magic he showed in Champaign, with Purdue ranking 128th in EPA/play, 123rd in explosive pass rate and have created just two turnovers all season (131st).
- Illinois’ defense has allowed just one pass of 40+ yards in 149 pass attempts, and three rushing touchdowns on 165 carries so far this season.
- Illinois’ offensive line has been a disaster in pass protection allowing a 37% pressure rate (117th), 8.7% sack rate (119th) and committing 4.6 penalties per game (96th).
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