We are less than a week away from seeing the first official 12-team College Football Playoff field, which will be unveiled on Sunday afternoon. And while we think we know most of the teams that are essentially locked into the bracket now, we don’t know anything with 100 percent certainty. Plus, there are five hugely important conference championship games to be played this weekend that will impact not just who makes the Playoff but also where each team is seeded.
This projected bracket is based on the following results:
- Oregon beating Penn State in the Big Ten championship game
- Texas beating Georgia in the SEC championship game
- SMU beating Clemson in the ACC championship game
- Arizona State beating Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game
- Boise State beating UNLV in the Mountain West championship game
Those results would lock Oregon in as the No. 1 overall seed with Texas at No. 2 and SMU at No. 3. Based on the selection committee’s affinity for Boise State, I’m keeping the Broncos ranked ahead of the Sun Devils and giving Boise State the No. 4 seed (and first-round bye). I believe that Arizona State, however, would jump up a few spots in the rankings thanks to its win over Iowa State (another top-20 opponent), and the Sun Devils could be ranked high enough to earn the No. 11 seed.
I think most fans and media members agree that these at-large teams — Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee and Indiana — are likely-to-very-likely to make the final Playoff field. But we don’t know the order because we don’t know how much importance the CFP selection committee is going to place on conference championship games. CFP executive director Rich Clark has said that he doesn’t expect the committee to punish teams that lose their league title games (because they are playing an additional game that the other at-large candidates wouldn’t be playing), but we don’t know that for sure until we see it play out that way.
I believe that the committee will rank Notre Dame ahead of Penn State on Selection Sunday. The committee has already forgiven the Fighting Irish for their loss to Northern Illinois — committee chair Warde Manuel has said they’re a “different team” than they were that day during their 10-game winning streak — so they’re essentially locked in as a first-round host. The only question is seeding at this point, and I think the committee will compare results against a common opponent (USC) and have Notre Dame jump Penn State, since both will likely have 1-2 top-25 wins in the final rest of rankings (and the Nittany Lions will have two losses, to the two best teams they faced).
I’ve got Penn State and Georgia next as the losers of the Big Ten and SEC championship games, which would not penalize either team much for losing the extra game while also allowing both teams the opportunity to host first-round games. I’ve got Ohio State ahead of Tennessee for the final hosting spot because the Buckeyes and Vols each have a bad loss (Michigan and Arkansas, which cancel each other out) while Ohio State has two top-10 wins.
Alabama is the last team into my bracket. The final at-large spot is probably going to be the toughest decision for the selection committee every year, and it will definitely be in Year 1. You can make a compelling case for Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina. But I think the committee will value the Tide’s big wins (and discount the two bad losses) and put Alabama in ahead of Ole Miss (whose loss to Kentucky could and should be an eliminator), Miami (which has no great wins to anchor its resume) and South Carolina (who lost to Alabama). That’s not to say I want to see Alabama in the Playoff just because its best is quite good. I think that the team is wildly inconsistent and not deserving of CFP inclusion, but the bubble is always messy and filled with flawed teams. So, this is the flawed team I think will get the benefit of the doubt, even though South Carolina might be the most exciting team of the bunch.
No matter what happens, I’m sure fans of all the teams involved will totally understand the committee’s final decision. Definitely sure of that.
