In the last five years, Ohio State has not had a starting quarterback average fewer than 9.1 yards per pass attempt or complete fewer than 66 percent of his passes. One season from the late Dwayne Haskins, two from Justin Fields and two from C.J. Stroud combined for 198 touchdowns and 29 interceptions.
Good luck matching those standards, future starting Buckeyes quarterback, whoever you may be.
If Ohio State had a quarterback returning with more than 20 career pass attempts, it would probably be ranked even higher than its No. 3 in the preseason AP poll released Monday. Given the overall roster talent, it just might be No. 1.
Enter junior Kyle McCord.
Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has not named McCord his starter yet, still in a preseason competition with sophomore Devin Brown, but the broad assumption is McCord will earn the gig. A consensus four-star recruit in 2021, rivals.com rated McCord the No. 35 overall player in the class, behind five other Ohio State signees, including No. 1 overall prospect Quinn Ewers.
Ewers spent only a semester in Columbus before transferring to Texas, in part because of the opportunities awaiting him in his homestate, in part because Stroud was starring in his debut season and perhaps in part because McCord lingered as position competition.
Still, doubt lingers around McCord. Certainly, his predecessors’ excellence did him no favors.
The Buckeyes scrimmaged Saturday and Day then moved up his next media availability to Monday from Wednesday. Some speculated he was going to name his starting quarterback. Nope.
“You’ve got to be able to do it over and over and over again,” Day said Monday. “It’s not good enough to just do it two or three times and then throw an interception. You can’t do that. The expectation and standard here is very, very high. All these guys knew that when they came here.”
Day is a rational enough person. He has enjoyed five very successful seasons as a head coach after one year as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator and two years as an NFL quarterbacks coach. He knows better than to think Haskins, Fields and Stroud were normal, that such production should be immediately expected from McCord. He knows there was a reason Stroud went No. 2 overall in the NFL draft. But that is still what Day has gotten used to, come to rely on, anticipated in practices. McCord has not met that yet.
The question is not if he will before the Buckeyes kick off at Indiana on Sept. 2. The question is if McCord will begin to approach such prolific efficiency this season.
He will need help. Not from his receivers (the best group in the country) or running backs (among the best groups in the country), but from his offensive line.
Perhaps the only thing more challenging than replacing a do-everything quarterback like Stroud is replacing two NFL offensive tackles. Left tackle Paris Johnson went No. 6 overall, and right tackle Dawand Jones heard his name called in the fourth round. To add to that frustration, last year’s center, Luke Wypler, was a sixth-round draft pick.
San Diego State transfer Josh Simmons, a junior academically and a former four-star recruit, looks like the presumptive left tackle starter even though he was not yet at Ohio State this spring, and senior Josh Fryar has taken pole position at right tackle. Sophomore Carson Hinzman is competing with Louisiana-Monroe transfer Vic Cutler to be the starting center.
College football fans who are diligent about tracking the sport through the summer have assuredly heard the doubts around Ohio State, the sharp thoughts of Michigan winning the conference for a third straight year, of Penn State’s prominent dark-horse candidacy. Much of that skepticism hinges on the Buckeyes’ unknown not only at quarterback but also along the offensive line.
As Ohio State's starting quarterback competition continues, Ryan Day is searching for more consistency from the passers. That and @brdispatch's other takeaways from Ryan Day's press conference: https://t.co/aqMPWM68q9
— Joey Kaufman (@joeyrkaufman) August 14, 2023
SOME ABSURD STATS
Fans in Columbus are among the loudest doubters and skeptics of Day’s five years and what will come next. Their binary is not the same “Playoff or bust” that plagues most of college football. More precisely, “Beat Michigan or bust” usually invokes a Playoff bid. And Ohio State has failed that binary test the last two years, not beating Michigan since 2019 and not doing so at home since 2018. (The two did not play in 2020.)
But to put Day’s success in perspective, realize the Buckeyes have scored at least 21 points in 54 straight games, last falling short on an October weekend at Purdue in 2018. (That game is best remembered for Boilermakers receiver Rondale Moore running wild with 194 yards and two scores on 14 touches, but the fact that Ohio State scored only 20 points should be better remembered. Haskins attempted 73 passes, completing only 67 percent of them.)
For context, Notre Dame has fallen short of 21 points nine times in its last 55 games, of course including its loss at Columbus to open last season. That context should hold emphasis beyond this being a website dedicated to Irish coverage: Notre Dame made two Playoff appearances in that stretch and went nearly four seasons without being upset.
Going beyond Day and through all of Urban Meyer’s tenure, losing the last two games of the 2022 season — never mind that the second of those losses came by a missed field goal against eventual back-to-back champions Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinal — was the first losing streak for Ohio State since 2011.
Yes, the Buckeyes went more than a decade without losing back-to-back games.
Again for context, Notre Dame suffered six losing streaks across the last decade, including a pair of three-game lulls and a 2014 four-game stumble. And again, that context should hold emphasis beyond this being a website dedicated to Irish coverage given nine of those 10 years made up the bulk of the winningest career in Notre Dame football coaching history.
NOW LET’S KEEP TALKING NOTRE DAME
The Irish led the Buckeyes 10-7 at halftime last September. With 12 minutes left in the game, Ohio State had taken a 14-10 lead, but it also had the ball at its own five-yard line. Notre Dame had no need to panic.
The Buckeyes proceeded to rush 14 times for 78 yards on their next two drives, including 10 rushes for 54 yards on the seven-minute touchdown drive that snuffed out any Irish hopes.
Only one of those rush attempts failed to gain yardage, simply reaching the line of scrimmage. The other 13 all moved forward.
Credit Day’s play calls, credit running backs TraVeyon Henderson (six carries for 36 yards in that stretch; 15 for 91 on the game) and Miyan Williams (seven for 29; 14 for 84 and a touchdown), and credit that dominant pair of left tackles that thoroughly stifled Isaiah Foskey all evening (four tackles, none for loss). Oh, and by the way, both Henderson and Williams remain in Columbus.
As much as Notre Dame’s offensive gameplan that Saturday night lowered the Irish ceiling — shortening the game in an attempt to lessen the effect of the talent discrepancy between the two teams — Ohio State’s ability to impart its will in the fourth quarter raised the Buckeyes ceiling.
Ohio State last night: 21 points, 395 total yards, 5.7 yards per play.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 4, 2022
Ohio State's season lows in 2021: 26 points (W at Nebraska), 458 yards (L at Michigan), 5.8 yards per play (Michigan).
Some of that was #NotreDame's game plan, but a lot of it was the Irish defense.
OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
McCord may be the question mark bracketed by wonders at the tackles, but the headlines will focus on the Buckeyes receivers. Namely, junior Marvin Harrison Jr. may have a shot at winning the Heisman. Classmate Emeka Egbuka would be considered one of the top receivers in the country if he was not so overshadowed by Harrison. Senior Julian Fleming had 36 catches for 533 yards and six touchdowns last season and is now effectively an afterthought.
For that matter, Ohio State’s top-six pass-catchers return in 2023. If McCord can be on target and have enough time for his targets to run their routes, there should be no doubt in the Buckeyes’ offense this season, even with first-time playcaller Brian Hartline.
It is not a small “if,” but given Day’s track record, it is not an unreasonable one, either.
.@brdispatch on Ohio State’s cornerbacks who are trying to live up to their position “BIA” label this season: https://t.co/PYR02dz5lm
— Joey Kaufman (@joeyrkaufman) August 11, 2023
DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
And yet Ohio State’s strength in 2023 may be its defense.
Pro Football Focus considers the Buckeyes’ defensive line to be the second-best in the country, led by ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. How good are they? Javontae Jean-Baptiste struggled to crack the rotation last year and is now in the mix to be a Notre Dame starter.
Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg (yes, Liam’s brother) has received some preseason All-American nods, and senior Cody Simon (yes, Shayne’s brother) returns after notching 32 tackles last year as a reserve.
Let’s keep going with the blood connections to the one that could elevate the Ohio State defense. Sophomore Sonny Styles (yes, Lorenzo’s brother) has seen more and more work this preseason as something of a nickel back/safety hybrid.
“Sonny is that guy we are trying to find ways to get him on the field, to be a factor in a game,” Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said last week. “Plan on him being out there a lot.”
Styles combines speed and size in a way that can change the geometry of the field. While his brother Lorenzo presumably spends the season preserving a year of eligibility as he adjusts to defensive back work, Sonny may be a breakout star in 2023.
Oh, and if that isn’t enough, Ohio State pulled in a freshman All-American cornerback from Mississippi in Davison Igbinosun and a starting safety from Syracuse in Ja’Had Carter.
Marcus Freeman asked about rivalries, says he played in one of the "greatest" rivalries, but delicately does not say the word Michigan. On that, #NotreDame and Ohio State fans can agree.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 10, 2022
2023 OUTLOOK
Those transfers were almost unfair.
The Buckeyes enter the preseason ranked No. 3 despite such an unknown at the most important position in football because their entire roster is just that talented. Frankly, AP voters may have been low. SP+ slots Ohio State at No. 2 entering 2023.
Look at the junior class, for example. Even after the No. 1 overall recruit in 2021 left Columbus, the Buckeyes claim four of the top-13 prospects from that class in Tuimoloau (No. 7), Egbuka (No. 11), Sawyer (No. 12) and starting guard Donovan Jackson (No. 13).
This roster came within a missed field goal from likely winning last year’s national championship. Losing Stroud is a blow, one that will be difficult to navigate, but nonetheless, few other teams can match the raw talent at Day’s disposal.
Ohio State will have three games to get McCord up to speed before he heads to Notre Dame. Considering how far Indiana has fallen in recent seasons, that opening road trip should hardly be a worry, then followed by a visit from FCS-level Youngstown State and Western Kentucky.
The Buckeyes are relying on a first-time playcaller at offensive coordinator and a first-time starter at quarterback. There is risk to that. But if Hartline and McCord find a rhythm in September, Ohio State could be back in the national title picture, not that it ever left it, no matter what Buckeyes fanatics may argue.
Ohio State getting blown out by Michigan, Buckeyes fans having a mild nuclear meltdown for a month, and then Ryan Day winning the natty would be the second-funniest possible/hypothetical storyline of the 2022 season.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) January 1, 2023
First would have been ND playing LSU today.
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