For a second straight offseason, consternation has ruled the day at Clemson. Spotty quarterback play forced Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney to go outside his proverbial family for a pivotal coaching hire, which is more outside-the-box than Swinney was willing to go when he needed to replace both his coordinators following the 2021 season and further from the program than Swinney usually goes as the country’s only head coach absolutely refusing to dip into the transfer portal.
And an improved upper tier of the ACC could threaten Clemson’s chokehold on the conference.
Yet, all this worry comes after the Tigers went 11-3 and won the conference yet again. They have won it seven of the last eight years and have not dipped into single-digit wins since Swinney’s second season back in 2010.
Think about that for a moment. As plenty of people — from Clemson fans to ACC prognosticators to the general national college football media — wring their hands over the state of the Tigers program, it has won 10 or more games for 12 straight years. Only Alabama can say that.
Some more trust should be put in Clemson. Even if Notre Dame thoroughly embarrassed the Tigers last November — remove that conditional: The Irish did, to such an extent that Swinney referred to it as “an ass-kicking” in his postgame press conference — Clemson remains one of the most proven programs in the country. Even if the Tigers shot themselves in the foot against South Carolina to close the regular season — again, it’s a truth, mostly in that Swinney and since-fired offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter refused to bench quarterback DJ Uiagalelei for freshman Cade Klubnik — losing a one-point game to a rival is not a sign of tumult. It is simply college football at its finest.
OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
Hiring offensive coordinator Garrett Riley from TCU will make things interesting at Clemson, if absolutely nothing else. The Air Raid offense is never boring, not even the more balanced version Riley prefers compared to the pure version espoused by the late Mike Leach.
Riley’s offense drove TCU’s championship game run last year, but he will have much greater talent at his disposal this year, all due respect to Max Duggan.
Klubnik was rated as a recruit just a touch behind the likes of Trevor Lawrence. As Uiagalelei struggled last season but Clemson remained in Playoff contention, it defied comprehension that Swinney did not turn to Klubnik. Forcing him into action at Notre Dame and then pulling him after an interception on his first pass attempt was short-sighted and rash. Klubnik made a poor throw, allowing Benjamin Morrison the chance at his first pick of the day, but that poor throw was also the result of the Irish defensive backfield properly hiding its coverage and Morrison taking a risk on the play.
In two games with significant action last season, Klubnik threw for 599 yards while completing 64 percent of his passes with three total touchdowns.
Alongside Klubnik in the backfield will be Clemson’s best player, former Notre Dame recruit Will Shipley. He has 26 career touchdowns and has averaged 5.5 yards per offensive touch in two seasons. Complement him with junior Phil Mafah and defenses will not be able to overly commit to defending against Klubnik’s arm.
Four offensive line starters return with 99 career starts among them. To some degree, skepticism may linger with them, given returning production is an asset only when it is good production, but the Tigers held opponents to two or fewer sacks more often than not last year and averaged 5.1 yards per carry (sacks adjusted). Outside of Notre Dame’s defense excelling — four sacks and only 116 rushing yards, though Clemson gained 5.5 yards per carry (sacks adjusted) — the Tigers’ offensive line held up last season.
At which point, the only question in Riley’s first year is the receivers room. There is no star, but junior Beaux Collins has long looked like one and sophomore Adam Randall has incurred some spring and preseason praise.
Would not be surprised to see Clemson WR Adam Randall break out as a sophomore. Was the most physically-developed WR in the 2022 cycle with explosive athleticism at 6’3 225. No. 52 overall @On3Recruits in 22 https://t.co/ohx4CUw0zO pic.twitter.com/SzpOGiHgQd
— Charles Power (@CharlesPower) August 7, 2023
Furthermore, part of the premise of the Air Raid offense is rhythm and habit mattering more than usual, helping make up for some talent wonders.
DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
As much as it was a surprise to see Swinney reach outside his known coaches for an offensive coordinator, it was more of a shock to see Clemson’s defense struggle last season.
Well, struggle is a relative term. The Tigers gave up just 20.9 points per game and finished the year with the No. 25 defense in the country, per SP+ ratings. But the standard is the standard, and former Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables had established a high one before he left to take over the Oklahoma program.
His longtime right-hand man took over last year, Wes Goodwin. Again, it was hardly a struggle, just not enough to compensate for Uiagalelei’s continued struggles on the other side of the ball.
Now Goodwin gets to enjoy perhaps the best starting linebackers in the country in Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter. (It is worth noting, there is no experience behind them; the Tigers return only three linebackers with more than 16 career snaps, including Trotter and Carter.) Eight defensive starters return, and the turnover up front should be more than manageable with three-time All-ACC defensive tackle Tyler Davis still leading the way.
1. Clemson
— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 3, 2023
10. Utah
Top 10 Linebacker Groups in College Football⬇️https://t.co/hvzldwJJxs
Davis is joined by senior Ruke Orhorhoro, who reportedly had strong enough NFL draft evaluations to have justified heading pro this past offseason. If sixth-year end Xavier Thomas can finally find health, then Clemson’s defensive line is going to be every bit as frustrating for opposing offenses as it always seems to be.
2023 OUTLOOK
For a third straight year, the Tigers’ hopes may hinge on a relative unknown at quarterback. Uiagalelei fell short twice. How much of that tied to his offensive coordinators?
Now it’s Klubnik’s turn with a new scheme to grasp, but a scheme that historically favors quarterbacks with his traits. And he will have time to find the rhythm of the Air Raid, opening the year at Duke, vs. FCS-level Charleston Southern and vs. Florida Atlantic.
But then things get interesting.
While No. 13 Notre Dame is hosting No. 3 Ohio State on Sept. 23 (7:30 ET on NBC), No. 9 Clemson will be hosting No. 8 Florida State with pole position in the ACC on the line. The conference no longer relies on divisions, so the two could meet again in the conference championship game, but the winner in late September will have the obvious edge on that path.
Clemson is favored to win the conference, but not by much. Given the track record of the last eight years, even as supposed doubts swirl around Swinney and his program, putting that kind of faith in the Tigers feels appropriate.
See the two minutes beginning at 19:27 in the below video for a longer conversation of the ACC futures odds of Clemson and Florida State.
NOTRE DAME’S OPPONENTS
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