Notre Dame was only a game into a first-year head coach’s tenure, leaning on a first-time starter at quarterback. The Irish were coming off a frustrating road loss to a national title contender. Travel delays kept them from getting back to South Bend until Sunday morning, effectively shortening their week by a full day.
Marshall was a new-look roster, with nearly a dozen Power Five transfers elevating the overall talent level, including running back Khalan Laborn. A young up-and-coming head coach was willing to risk it all for a statement victory. And that recipe led to a dominant Herd win, beating Notre Dame 26-21 in Marcus Freeman’s South Bend ebut.
Notre Dame in 2023 is not Notre Dame in 2022. Freeman has a full year of mistakes and lessons to pull from, and now his offense leans on a sixth-year quarterback with a chance to end up in the top five of most NCAA career passing records. When the Irish face Central Michigan, they will be coming off a game at North Carolina State, early enough in the season that the Wolfpack should be ripe for the beating. And that noon kickoff should bar any travel difficulties, assuming no hurricane arrives.
Central Michigan is not Marshall from last year, either. An unproven Power Five transfer at receiver will not burgeon the Chippewas to a threatening level, and head coach Jim McElwain will be more focused on returning to MAC contention than pulling a surprise in South Bend.
Let’s skip past the Central Michigan specifics for now, more on them below, and first underscore how much less a threat the Chippewas will be than the Thundering Herd were a year ago.
Based on SP+ rankings, Notre Dame could be favored by as many as five touchdowns against Central Michigan. If anything, early-season games could increase that margin. The Irish will have two tune-ups against Navy (in Dublin) and FCS-level Tennessee State, and efficient offensive showings will improve Notre Dame’s power ranking. Meanwhile, the Chippewas open at Michigan State, and the Spartans will be desperate to find some success coming off last year’s 5-7 embarrassment.
But for now, let’s presume the Irish will be favored by 35 points.
They were just 20-point favorites against Marshall last year, and given Notre Dame had not yet stubbed its toe at that point, that spread held about the same weight as this hypothetical one should. A month later, after the Irish had fallen twice in problematic fashion, they were favored by just 26 points against UNLV.
Go back further. In 2021, Notre Dame was a 16.5-point favorite against Toledo, a genuine MAC force. In 2020, merely 23.5 points against laughable South Florida.
To get an appropriate idea of the discrepancy between the 2023 Irish and Central Michigan, look back to 2019 when Notre Dame was a 34.5-point favorite against New Mexico. (A game perhaps best remembered for Bob Davie unfortunately being kept off the Lobos’ plane by heart problems.) The Irish won 66-14.
Worry less, Notre Dame fans. Central Michigan is not primed to give Marcus Freeman a second humbling Group of Five loss in two years.
**The AP poll is meaningless other than it is the accepted and expected ranking included in headlines from now until Halloween**
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 14, 2023
Anyway, #NotreDame is at No. 13 in the preseason AP poll.
Ohio State at No. 3.
USC at No. 6.
Clemson at No. 9.
OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
The Chippewas return just three offensive starters, all along their offensive line. Those 54 career starts will need to protect dual-threat sophomore quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. After working through three quarterbacks last season, Central Michigan likely will start Emanuel this year, despite him attempting all of eight passes in 2022.
He did rush for 496 yards on 67 carries with seven touchdowns. From an Irish perspective, studying to hem him in could be useful prep for when USC and Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams visit on Oct. 14.
The Chippewas return only one receiver from last year, Jalen McGaughy with 20 catches for 313 yards and seven touchdowns. A better hope for an offensive surge will come from Wisconsin transfer Stephan Bracey, though that hope is based on Bracey’s potential, not his production. He caught all of one pass in two-plus years in Madison, impressing more with his speed on kickoff returns.
#NotreDame tabs four captains for the 2023 season.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 13, 2023
QB1 and Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman
Left tackle and likely top-10 draft pick Joe Alt
Fifth-year cornerback Cam Hart
Fifth-year linebacker JD Bertrand https://t.co/hrMFzJPzkL
DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
An offensive mind throughout his career, McElwain may need to pin this season to defensive success. Central Michigan returns nine defensive starters including six of its front seven, down only defensive end Thomas Incoom (11.5 sacks last year with four more quarterback hurries).
Then again, returning players is only a good thing when they are good, and the Chippewas gave up 4.95 yards per rush in their last four games of 2022. Not to mention, Oklahoma State scored 58 points and put up 531 yards on 61 plays to open the season (8.7 yards per play).
2023 OUTLOOK
Bookmakers set the Central Michigan win total Over/Under at 5.5, and the Chippewas may need to have a winning record in the MAC to reach it. They lost by 14 against South Alabama, in Mt. Pleasant, Mich., last year, so that return trip on Sept. 23 is far from a sure-win for Central Michigan. Without that, only a 5-3 MAC record will push the Chippewas past that win total.
To put it charitably, Central Michigan is in the MAC’s mid-tier. Closing the season against two conference title contenders (at Ohio, vs. Toledo) could preclude the Chippewas reaching a bowl game.
NOTRE DAME’S OPPONENTS
New head coach and a possible new QB may not be enough for Navy in 2023
Reward clear, risk miniscule in Irish matchup with HBCU Tennessee State
North Carolina State betting on QB Brennan Armstrong’s reunion with OC Robert Anae
