Service-academy football is changing and changing quickly, but Navy is moving along with it slower than its peers. Air Force has leaned on an explosive passing game as part of its option offense for years, and now Army is changing up its offense entirely, turning to a shotgun approach.
Despite a change at head coach and offensive coordinator, the Midshipmen intend to continue with the triple-option, despite its reduced effectiveness in college football in the 2020s.
There is more to that than mere Navy struggles of late.
When the NCAA changed the rules to eliminate blocking below the waist, otherwise known as cut blocking, outside the tackle box, it became that much more difficult for undersized Midshipmen blockers, offensive linemen and receivers alike, to take down possible tacklers on the edges and downfield.
That rule change proved far more impactful on the triple-option offenses than the 2018 change did, which simply eliminated cut blocking more than five yards downfield. Removing cut blocks on the edges, too, means a lead blocking back has to be able to square up a linebacker, a receiver has to match up with a safety, and so forth.
Hence Army trying to spread things out in a way similar to Coastal Carolina’s offense of the last few seasons (now presumably heading to Liberty with former Chanticleers head coach Jamey Chadwell). FCS-level Kennesaw State has turned to the pistol offense to try to adjust to these issues after going 5-6 last year, and former Owls offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut has taken on that role in Annapolis.
Chestnut — under first-year head coach and former Navy defensive coordinator Brian Newberry — knows some offensive innovation is needed, but the Midshipmen do not plan on anything as drastic as the Knights or Owls.
“We’re going to function both under center and in the gun, and the ratio is going to be determined by our personnel,” Chestnut said to The Athletic. “I’m really excited about this era we’re in, in option football, because you’re going to see a lot of new, creative things from everyone involved.”
RELATED READING: Navy isn’t abandoning the triple option, but wrinkles are on the way
Why Army football is converting Jeff Monken’s triple-option offense to the shotgun
That threat of creativity may show itself in a moment or two of ingenuity in Dublin, but in the long run, Navy likely will need to make a bigger adjustment to find renewed success.
THAT COACHING CHANGE
After a tumultuous and contentious 2021 publicly set longtime Midshipmen head coach Ken Niumatalolo at odds with his athletic director Chet Gladchuk, some change was clearly in that athletic department’s future. Niumatalolo took the brunt of that immediately after Navy lost to Army in double overtime, fired after 15 years as the Midshipmen head coach.
The further I get into the firing of Ken Niumatalolo, the more entrenched two thoughts are:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 12, 2022
1) This program never had a chance the last three seasons.
2) Not sure Navy is going to set up the next coach for success, either.
via @BWagner_CapGaz -- https://t.co/QD1WecFVCn
Amazingly, the personnel decision that originally pitted Niumatalolo and Gladchuk against each other remained in Niumatalolo’s favor after his firing. Quarterbacks coach Ivin Jaspar is still on the Midshipmen staff, two years after Gladchuk fired him against Niumatalolo’s objections, a decision Gladchuk eventually relented on back in 2021.
Newberry had been on Niumatalolo’s staff for four years after spending four years at Kennesaw State, so planning with a triple-option offense has been his default for most of a decade.
OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
To be blunt, who knows? If Navy refuses to move away from the triple-option, it is hard to envision it improving on last year’s 4.1 yards per rush, a high point in the last three years. Senior quarterback Tai Lavatai missed spring practices due to a knee injury suffered last season, and senior Xavier Arline — Lavatai’s replacement in the final four games of the year — missed spring practices while playing lacrosse before an injury cut short that season.
Sophomore Tedrois Gleaton took most of the springtime reps and could be more of a dual threat than either Lavatai (46.2 completion rate last year, five touchdowns, three interceptions) or Arline (only 11 attempts in his four starts). That should help Chestnut open up the offense, at least in theory.
Leading rusher Daba Fofana returns (819 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, six touchdowns last year), part of how Navy returns more production in 2023 than all but 16 other teams in the country, the kind of indicator that usually bodes well for the Midshipmen.
DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
Navy could have had an intriguing year in 2022 if not for the complete offensive struggles. The defense gave up only 3.0 yards per carry and 89 rushing yards per game. If the Midshipmen had been able to produce offensively, that was the kind of defense that may have made opponents problematically one-dimensional.
That entire defensive line returns, notable coming off a school-record 34 sacks, and junior linebacker Colin Ramos should put himself into All-AAC contention, following in the footsteps of John Marshall’s 28.5 disruptive plays last year that earned him conference first-team honors.
When Navy put together a second-half charge to worry Notre Dame fans last year — going from a 35-13 halftime deficit to a 35-32 loss — that frustrating defense was deserving of the credit. The Irish offense got conservative, understandable given the opponent and its offensive shortcomings, and the Midshipmen defense was ideally suited to stymie that reluctant approach.
To pull from a column the week after that game …
“Even from an undersized defense, an unblocked pass rusher will get to a quarterback more often than not. Add in the season-long struggle of Notre Dame’s receivers creating quick separation, and Pyne’s plight became more troubled.”
RELATED READING: Notre Dame’s second-half struggles vs Navy a triple-option symptom more than a continuing concern
Navy’s defensive front seven will be as poignant in 2023, though the Irish offense should be more credible explosively, so even a conservative, lead-protecting approach may feature some downfield threats.
2023 OUTLOOK
Navy will have the longest season in the country, literally speaking. The Dublin matchup will be the first kickoff of the year, and Army-Navy is always the last regular-season game. Effectively, the Midshipmen will enjoy three idle weeks throughout a 15-week season.
They will need to make good use of them. Unable to use the transfer portal to embolden the depth chart, the injury risk in Annapolis is arguably higher than at nearly any other program in the country.
The quarterback wonders should dampen any high hopes Newberry has entering his first season in charge, and the refusal to balk from the triple-option could doom the early part of his tenure before it even begins.
Hence, bookmakers have set the Navy win total Over/Under at about 6.5. Given a likely 1-2 start to the season (vs Notre Dame, vs Wagner, at Memphis), finding six more wins in the final nine games of the year will be quite a reach. See the 90 seconds in the below video for a more thorough thought process on betting this Under, beginning at 24:05.
The Irish are 20-point favorites for the season kickoff in Dublin, at 2:30 ET on NBC.
