“Looking back at it, it’s hard to say we were ready to play at a high level,” a young Power Five head coach said, a coach who became a first-time head coach at a blueblood Power Five program when he was only in his 30s. “Really slow start offensively. Pretty pathetic early, honestly.”
Lincoln Riley won four straight conference championships at Oklahoma and reached three College Football Playoffs. He has coached three Heisman Trophy winners, including his current star quarterback. And yet, USC nearly squandered what should have been a rout on Saturday night, hosting Arizona as a 21.1-point favorite and needing triple overtime to remain unbeaten.
No. 10 USC (6-0): Caleb Williams danced his way into the end zone to win the game for the Trojans in the third overtime, 43-41, a chance he may never have had if Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch properly understood the current overtime rules. Or, for that matter, if USC had made a field goal at the regulation buzzer, instead of a bad snap undoing that operation.
But none of that, not even Williams’s heroics, is the lingering memory. Rather, the Trojans fell behind 17-0 to start the night, their first deficit of the season.
“I think going back and watching the film and our coaches knew right away, the couple of plays that [Arizona scored on] early, we had the perfect call,” Riley said this week. “We were like dead to rights. If you were on the Arizona coaches’ headset and knew exactly what you wanted to call, we were in it, and I think our coaches knew it, and our players knew it, and we just made a few dumb mistakes that opened up big plays.”
That sure sounds a lot like citing players’ execution for opponents’ success.
In other words, USC’s inept defense with trouble executing will face No. 21 Notre Dame (5-2) and its struggling offense on Saturday at 7:30 ET on NBC. The Irish are 2.5-point favorites with a combined point total Over/Under of 62.5, suggesting a final score in the range of 33-30 despite a chilly, rainy and windy night.
Asked Lincoln Riley about perception of the defense and he delivered a very impassioned answer in which he said, basically, the media “had their mind made up” that at any sign of adversity, a change would need to be made.
— Luca Evans (@bylucaevans) October 11, 2023
Pretty interesting watch for #USC fans: pic.twitter.com/u186Ze7BHL
Pittsburgh (1-4): The Panthers were idle last weekend, but they still took the time to demote former Notre Dame and former Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec. While Jurkovec’s stats were a touch above abysmal — his 50.9 percent completion rate is the albatross, but Jurkovec threw six touchdowns against three interceptions in five games this season, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt — Pittsburgh averaging just 23.4 points was the truly unsustainable piece of the season.
In steps sophomore Christian Veilleux ahead of Jurkovec, who Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi has said is not moving to tight end, despite reports last week.
Veilleux has thrown two interceptions in just 27 pass attempts, something that may play into Louisville’s favor (6:30 ET on the CW) and part of why the Cardinals are 7.5-point favorites.
Clemson (4-2): The Tigers crawled to a 17-12 win against Wake Forest, either a testament to the Demon Deacons’ defense or a criticism of Clemson’s offense. Quarterback Cade Klubnik threw for just 4.7 yards per pass attempt, so some criticism is probably deserved.
The Tigers have an idle week.
Wake Forest (3-2): The Demon Deacons could have sprung the upset if they had any effective offense where it matters most on the field. Wake Forest has the country’s worst touchdown conversion rate in the red zone. It has managed just eight touchdowns on 23 trips inside the 20-yard line, part of ranking No. 127 in the country in points per quality drive, just 2.26 points on drives that are more likely to score than not.
At Clemson, specifically, the Demon Deacons began four first-half possessions in plus-territory and scored all of three points. They had a drive start with a first-and-goal at the nine that yielded no points. Botching such opportunities is how Wake Forest failed, yet again, to prevail in a close-loss to the Tigers.
Such missed opportunities could cost the Deacons again at Virginia Tech (3:30 ET on ACCN) and are part of why the Hokies are favored by 1.5 points.
Stanford (1-4): The Cardinal come off an idle week to now face the most hyped team in college football, heading to Colorado (10 ET on ESPN) as 11.5-point underdogs. The combination of the idle week, Colorado’s continued exposure on film for opposing coaches to study and Stanford head coach Troy Taylor’s seven years as an FCS offensive coordinator or higher and 30 years of coaching experience could all tempt thoughts of a Cardinal upset.
Its greatest strength, really the only thing it does well, is its rushing attack, relatively average on a down-by-down standard but successful more often than most of the country. Colorado has struggled stopping the run, ranking No. 93 in the country in expected points added per rush against and, even worse, No. 104 in rushing success rate against.
Stanford may be able to junk up this game to find its second win of the season. That is obviously unlikely, but at least keep an eye on the game as you close the bar to see if the Buffaloes have indeed pulled away.
Looking beyond the stoppable force (Notre Dame's offense) against the moveable object (USC's defense), Saturday night will be about third downs.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 10, 2023
ND is bad and getting worse on third down on both sides of the ball. Can it change that at all in Saturday night's rain? https://t.co/DXI5sCma5m
Navy (2-3): The Midshipmen used 331 rushing yards on 58 carries, an average of 5.7 yards per rush, to slip past North Texas, 27-24. Navy now heads to Charlotte (2 ET on ESPN+) as a 3.5-point favorite.
Tennessee State (3-2): The Tigers beat Kennesaw State, 27-20, a notable upset for Eddie George’s program growth. Tennessee State was a 10-point underdog, instead jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter.
The Tigers should now be about 10-point favorites against Norfolk State (6 ET on ESPN+).
. @TSUedu head coach Eddie George said its hurtful that his school hasn't been given its funds like Tennessee and other state schools.
— HBCU Gameday (@HBCUGameday) October 10, 2023
Check out his complete thoughts on the matter: https://t.co/evJ4FkvRGV
North Carolina State (3-2): The Wolfpack benched Brennan Armstrong for MJ Morris, sparking five explosive touchdowns to beat Marshall, 48-41. Armstrong made one cameo, sacked for a five-yard loss and eliciting boos from the home crowd, a reaction that openly bothered some of the North Carolina State roster, players rising to Armstrong’s defense in their press conferences after the victory.
The Wolfpack will struggle to find those same explosive plays at Duke (8 ET on ACCN) this weekend, hence being a 3.5-point underdog.
Central Michigan (3-3): The Chippewas were inexplicably routed, 37-13, at Buffalo. A pair of interception returns for touchdowns helped the Bulls, but at no point was Central Michigan competitive.
The Chippewas will host Akron (3:30 ET on ESPN+) as 12-point favorites.
No. 3 Ohio State (5-0): The Buckeyes rallied from a 10-10 halftime tie to beat Maryland, 37-17, in no small part thanks to junior receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. catching eight passes for 163 yards and a touchdown.
Ohio State heads to Purdue (12 ET on Peacock) as a 19.5-point favorite.
No. 17 Duke (4-1): The Blue Devils were idle last week, vital as they hope for quarterback Riley Leonard’s health recovering from a high ankle sprain suffered in the final minute against Notre Dame. Duke head coach Mike Elko described Leonard’s health as “day-to-day” and “making really, really strong progress” on Monday.
“He was out moving around, throwing the ball this morning,” Elko said. “We’ll see what happens this weekend, but I do think the outlook is really positive for the rest of the season.”
Consider Leonard unlikely this weekend, the slim 3.5-point spread against North Carolina State as the primary indicator.
No. 14 Louisville (6-0): The Cardinals need to avoid a letdown at Pittsburgh (6:30 ET on the CW), a bit of a challenge for 18- to 23-year-olds coming off the emotional high of Saturday’s upset of Notre Dame.
No. 25 Louisville is now halfway through the hardest stretch of its schedule and still undefeated after taking down No. 11 Notre Dame for the team’s first 6-0 start since 2013. My 3 takeaways from the Cardinals’ impressive victory. https://t.co/b4wc1OwRgv
— Alexis Cubit (@Alexis_Cubit) October 8, 2023
Favorites: Navy (-3.5) at Charlotte; Central Michigan (-12) vs. Akron; Ohio State (-19.5) at Purdue; Duke (-3.5) vs. North Carolina State; Louisville (-7.5) at Pittsburgh.
Underdogs: USC (+2.5) at Notre Dame; Pittsburgh (+7.5) vs. Louisville; Wake Forest (+1.5) at Virginia Tech; Stanford (+11.5) at Colorado; North Carolina State (+3.5) at Duke.
FRIDAY
10:00 ET — Stanford at Colorado on ESPN.
SATURDAY
12:00 ET — Ohio State at Purdue on Peacock.
2:00 ET — Navy at Charlotte on ESPN+.
3:30 ET — Wake Forest at Virginia Tech on ACCN; Central Michigan vs. Akron on ESPN+.
6:30 ET — Louisville at Pittsburgh on the CW.
7:30 ET — USC at Notre Dame on NBC.
8:00 ET — North Carolina State at Duke on ACCN.
