Maryland (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) has easily handled their two lower-division opponents Villanova and UConn but are winless against Big Ten opponents. Michigan State outgained the Terps 484-to-339 total yards, as UM was held to a mere 2.8 yards per carry by the Spartans defense. They also allowed 510 total yards to Indiana and have consistently shot themselves in the foot with miscues, ranking 117th nationally averaging 75 penalty yards per game. Northwestern (2-3, 0-2 in Big Ten) owns wins against Miami-OH and Eastern Illinois.
Both Northwestern and Maryland are searching for signature wins in Big Ten play, with the Wildcats losing their last two contests to Washington and Indiana in convincing fashion. While Northwestern’s defense is a respectable unit that ranks 34th in points per scoring opportunity and 39th with a 5.3% explosive play rate, their offense ranks in the bottom-20 in every explosiveness metric and ranks 119th nationally averaging 15.5 PPG.
It’s hard to argue with the decision to jettison nepo-hire OC Brian Ferentz in favor of former Western Michigan HC Tim Lester, as the Hawkeyes are averaging twice as many points through four games in 2024 (30.7) than they did last season (15.4). In fact, Iowa has already eclipsed the 30-point barrier three times this season, which matches the sum total of 30+ point performances from the previous three years combined! HC Kirk Ferentz’ team is 3-1, dropping a 20-19 decision to arch-rival Iowa State thanks to some late-game heroics from QB Rocco Becht.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!
Game Details and How to watch Northwestern @ Maryland live
- Date: Friday, October 11th, 2024
- Time: 8:00 PM EST
- Site: SECU Stadium
- City: College Park, MD
- TV/Streaming: FOX
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!
Game odds for Northwestern @ Maryland - Week 7
The latest odds as of Wednesday evening:
- Moneyline: Maryland (-450), Northwestern (+350)
- Spread: Maryland -11 (-110)
- Over/Under: 45.5 points
*Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The spread opened at UM -10 and has held steady with the current market reflecting lines from 9.5-10.5 as this game continues to hover around the key number 10. Maryland opened as a -395 ML favorite and has remained in the same -360-400 ballpark. The total remains static in the 44.5-45.5 range.
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks Maryland is looking good at home:
“With Maryland having gone over the 45.5 point total in 4-of-5 games this seasons, and Northwestern clearing he mark in 2-of-3 games against Power Four opponents, I’m advocating for a play on the Over 45.5 points”
From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Ohio State +375 to +300
- Texas +500 to +450
- Georgia +650 to +500
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 15.4%
- Texas 11.9%
- Georgia 11.5%
Highest Handle%
- Georgia 17.6%
- Ohio State 17.3%
- Texas 11.6%
Biggest Liabilities
- Tennessee
- Ohio State
- Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Northwestern @ Maryland
- Maryland: QB Billy Edwards beat out NC State transfer MJ Morris for the starting job in fall camp and hasn’t looked back since, completing 72.3% of his throws for 8.2 yards per attempt and an 11-2 TD/INT ratio. He’s running Maryland’s offense with notable efficiency getting the ball out in 2.28 seconds which is the second fastest time-to-throw average in the Power Four (Malik Murphy #1 @ 2.17s). The Terps boast a 46.4% passing success rate (36th in FBS) while rating 32nd in EPA/dropback. However, UM ranks just 99th in completions of 20+ yards and 111th in passing explosiveness, so there is room for major improvement in that respect. QB Edwards has acquitted himself well thus far and looks like a multi-year starter for HC Mike Locksley.
- Northwestern: Vanderbilt-to-Mississippi State-to-Northwestern transfer dual-threat QB Mike Wright was tabbed as the opening day starter before completing 57% of his passes with a 0-1 ratio through two games before HC David Braun turned to current starter Jack Lausch. QB Lausch has completed 53% of his passes but has been pressured on 45 of his 96 dropbacks and is piloting a lagging Wildcats passing offense that ranks 125th in explosiveness and 115th in success rate. On a positive note, Lausch led NU to a season-high 24 points last week against Indiana, throwing for 243 yards with a 2-0 ratio and 34 rushing yards in the 41-24 loss.
Trends & recent stats
- Maryland WR Tai Felton leads all Big Ten receivers with 642 receiving yards and 9.2 receptions per game. WR Kaden Prather has gained 20+ yards on just 2-of-26 receptions this season, the 7th-lowest big play rate among FBS wideouts.
- Maryland is allowing 269 passing yards per game, the 5th-highest passing yardage allowed total in the Power Four. Despite the leaky pass defense, UM ranks 13th nationally with a 4.6% interception rate.
- Northwestern is 1-4 ATS and 3-2 to the Under. Offensively, they rank 112th in EPA/rush and 120th in EPA/dropback.
- Northwestern’s defense is a credible unit that ranks 31st in SP+. Much of their effectiveness on D can be attributed to their ability to suppress big plays, ranking 20th in marginal explosiveness and 21st in yards per successful play allowed.
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