Many Notre Dame fans identity USC and Michigan as the only Irish rivals of note. Those born in the Northeast might include Boston College, perhaps even in place of USC. Florida State, Pittsburgh and Michigan State fit into another tier below them, as far as traditional Notre Dame antagonists go.
Over the last decade, Clemson has found its way somewhere onto that list. Exactly where depends on a fan’s opinion. This afternoon presents the No. 15 Irish (7-2) a chance to even the recent slate, trailing the Tigers 3-2 in this series since 2015.
Notre Dame’s last trip to Clemson (4-4) came in a torrential downpour, a late rally falling short in a 24-22 loss in 2015. In many respects, that was the moment that launched the Tigers’ dynasty, beating the No. 6 Irish in what became known as the “Bring Your Own Guts” speech from Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney’s on-field postgame interview.
The 2018 Playoff rout and 2020 ACC championship game blowout then followed on the Tigers’ side of the ledger, Notre Dame springing a double-overtime upset in 2020 and a somewhat shocking 35-14 “ass-kicking” last year, to again pull a Swinney quote though very much in a different tone.
College football is rarely as simple as wins and losses make it out to be, but if Marcus Freeman can beat the ACC standard-bearer in back-to-back seasons to start his head-coaching career, it would be a resounding statement against the metric by which Notre Dame has been best measured over the last decade.
“I view Clemson as one of the premier programs in college football,” Freeman said Monday. “What coach Swinney has done with that program over the course of his time there has been second to no other program in college football. It’s extremely impressive. …
“That’s what I want to make sure everybody in our program understands. Don’t let the 4-4 record reflect the team, just watch the film. They are as talented as any team we’ve faced this year across the board.”
TV: ABC will broadcast the noon kickoff, with Sean McDonough handling play-by-play, Greg McElroy his analyst and Molly McGrath reporting from the sideline.
The ESPN app should handle any streaming needs, if you are spending your Saturday poolside.
TIME: Notre Dame has not played a noon game since Sept. 9, and even then, lightning delayed most of that game at North Carolina State, altering the day’s entire dynamic. Could today’s early kick present some intangible hurdle for the Irish?
“You have to make sure there’s not this progression from when you wake up to finally get in a play like you do maybe with 3:30 games or a night game,” Freeman said Thursday. “It’s we wake up and we have to stimulate our body. We have to get going the minute you get downstairs.
“We’ll still have a little walkthrough that we usually have on noon games, but the mindset when you wake up has to be, okay, we gotta get ready to go.
Well, the NCAA says you are No. 8 in most fumbles and No. 4 in lost fumbles. But the spirit largely stands.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 1, 2023
How about this? Clemson has fumbled 14 times against FBS opponents. Recovered seven.
It has forced 11, recovered six.
In other words, Clemson has had fumble luck. https://t.co/8jiGDCXqKd
PREVIEW: Notre Dame’s offense has been inconsistent this season, no one can argue that. Yet, it has fared better than Clemson’s. Gauge it via raw expected points added per snap — numbers that factor in score, down, distance, field position and time — and the Irish rank No. 10 in the country, compared to the Tigers at No. 84, per cfb-graphs.com. Dive a bit deeper into the numbers, and Notre Dame’s offense ranks No. 19 in SP+ rankings, far ahead of Clemson at No. 41.
The Irish defense is also better than the Tigers’, though not as distinctly.
Which is all to say, Notre Dame should be significantly favored, right?
Not so much, as Freeman indicated. The Irish are three-point favorites, as of early Saturday morning, with a combined pregame point total Over/Under of 44.5, suggesting a final score akin to 24-21. Such a win would be a feather in Freeman’s cap this early in his tenure, and it would mark Sam Hartman’s first win against the Tigers in his fifth try.
But that is hardly a definitive predictive edge.
The discrepancy between Clemson’s record and its standing among bookmakers comes from losing once in overtime to a College Football Playoff frontrunner (Florida State), once in double overtime to another talented yet immensely flawed team (Miami) and once more by one possession (last week at North Carolina State).
The Tigers have outgained their seven FBS opponents 2,654 yards to 2,062. More than any other gross stat, that can emphasize Clemson’s broad advantage, one undone in the margins.
Clemson has gone 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against P5 opponents, losing those nine by an average of 17.3 points compared to the lines.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 3, 2023
Seven of them were more than two touchdowns worse than the spread.
Tigers aren't just losing, they're falling well short of expectations.
PREDICTION: But the margins are where Notre Dame has most excelled of late, not just along the offensive and defensive lines. Forcing 10 turnovers in its last two games and returning one kickoff and one punt for touchdowns, along with three more defensive touchdowns, gave the Irish insurmountable edges against USC and Pittsburgh.
Sometimes, though, edges in the margins are not incidental.
Notre Dame has pressured opposing quarterbacks 199 times this season, more than any other Power Five team aside from UCLA. The Irish have increased their defensive aggression the last few weeks, and that has kept quarterbacks from taking the time to make good decisions. One such mistake leads to another, opposing offenses trying to make up lost ground.
Haven't really focused on the literal numbers this week -- Clemson's fumbles, repeated red-zone failures underscore this effect -- but the Tigers ranking No. 80 in havoc allowed against what Al Golden's defense has been doing lately sparks some thoughts ... https://t.co/aH85GEyuHi
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 3, 2023
Similarly, the Tigers have fumbled 15 times this season, losing eight of them. Putting the ball on the ground nearly two times each week is not merely a fluke, it is a habit, one caused in part by a frustrated offense trying too hard to make up for its deficiencies, particularly deficiencies along its offensive line.
If the Irish can find an early score to add some game pressure to sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik’s already extended offensive load, then mistakes may follow. In that game flow, a three-point win would be surprising in only that it would be so slim.
RELATED READING: Notre Dame’s Chris Tyree no longer a running back playing wideout
Notre Dame could afford to play with its proverbial food last week against Pittsburgh, the Irish offense managing just one genuine touchdown drive in the first half. The edge in the trenches on defense assured that cushion. It was a Panthers’ problem more than anything else, but Notre Dame removing all doubt and winning every defensive snap was a reflection of an Irish strength beyond facing an inferior opponent.
Notre Dame can prove that further this weekend against another struggling offensive line, prove the Irish defensive front-seven has found another level that few teams in the country can match. But that concept will be shown more dramatically if the front seven can focus on harassing Klubnik, not worrying about Clemson running backs Will Shipley (if he plays, in concussion protocols all week) and Phil Mafah, a luxury the Irish offense must provide with its own early statement.
Notre Dame 31, Clemson 17.
Predictions record straight-up: 6-3; Against the spread: 5-4; Over/Under: 3-6.
Notre Dame record straight-up: 7-2; Against the spread: 7-2; Over/Under: 6-3.
I'm not convinced Notre Dame scores 28.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 1, 2023
But I'll set the Over/Under on Cade Klubnik turnovers at 1.5
Has lost five of nine fumbles this season.
And will be asked to throw a lot (5 percent more than the average team) against the best passing defense in the country ... https://t.co/cvQVKuDqaC
INSIDE THE IRISH
— Things To Learn: Without its leading receiver, could Notre Dame’s offense actually become more explosive?
— And In That Corner: In their worst season in more than a decade, the Clemson Tigers are still plenty talented
— Notre Dame’s 2023 Opponents and the Irish path to a New Year’s Six bowl
— Things We Learned: Notre Dame’s defense nearing perfection, if it isn’t there already
— Notre Dame tight end and leading Irish pass catcher Mitchell Evans tears ACL, out for the season
— Highlights: Notre Dame 58, Pittsburgh 7 — Irish domination and Mickey’s meaningful interception return
— Notre Dame crushes Pittsburgh in all facets as Irish defense creates its own points for second straight game
OUTSIDE READING
— Notre Dame vs Clemson Odds, Picks and Predictions: Irish bring the fight in week 10
— Dabo Swinney raves about Notre Dame receivers coach Chansi Stuckey
— College football havoc rankings for week 10
— College football Week 9: National title picture, conference odds, Heisman watch
— 94% of college football coaches say Michigan crossed a line. What else do they say about sign-stealing?
— Ohio State inquired about in-person scouting of CFP opponents ahead of last season’s playoff
