Notre Dame was oft-criticized under Brian Kelly for a supposed inability to beat top-tier opponents. The No. 11 Irish (4-1) losing to No. 6 Ohio State (4-0) last weekend did nothing to change that narrative. Winning at No. 17 Duke (4-0) tonight at 7:30 ET on ABC would help, but a greater truth exists: The trend is overblown.
First of all, beating top-tier opponents is, by definition, a rarity. Harder yet, winning those games on the road. Notre Dame was usually an underdog in those moments, and it had nothing to do with these distorted claims. Sportsbooks do not factor in an abstract and misguided trend like that. It had to do with the simple fact that the Irish were not as good as those opponents.
By that same logic, Notre Dame is better than Duke.
-5.5: The spread as of early afternoon, a number in a dead zone that has never moved to -6, somewhat surprisingly given the reported hefty amount of cash on the Irish.
4-3: Marcus Freeman’s record against top-20 opponents, including last week’s loss to the Buckeyes.
1-1: Freeman’s record on the road in those moments, losing to No. 5 USC to end last regular season and beating No. 16 Syracuse in late October.
3-0: Freeman’s record against teams ranked between No. 11 and No. 20, beating No. 16 Syracuse, No. 16 BYU earlier last October and No. 20 South Carolina in the Gator Bowl.
17-21: Brian Kelly’s record against top-20 opponents in his 11 years as Notre Dame head coach.
3-11: Kelly’s record on the road in those moments.
13-9: Kelly’s record against teams ranked between No. 11 and No. 20.
1/ First off, @BetMGM's 30,000-foot national view, per @drew_o_dell:
— Patrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas) September 30, 2023
Most-bet games (tickets)
USC-Colorado
Notre Dame-Duke
Florida-Kentucky
Most-bet teams (tickets)
USC
Notre Dame
Kentucky
Most-bet teams (money)
USC
Notre Dame
Kentucky
13-4: Duke’s record under Mike Elko, the second-best stretch in the last 60 years of Blue Devils football.
34: Turnovers forced by Duke in those 17 games, losing only 13 of its own, for a net turnover margin of +21.
29 years: Since the Blue Devils played a top-25 regular-season matchup. That is more a reflection of how rarely Duke is ranked than anything else.
67.7 percent: Blue Devils quarterback Riley Leonard’s completion percentage this season, No. 30 in the country. In what is a deep quarterback class, Leonard should be one of the top-five passers eligible for the 2024 NFL draft, the only certainties ahead of him being USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
Duke HC Mike Elko on Sam Hartman:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 30, 2023
"You could be living in a cardboard box somewhere and know that Sam Hartman is a really talented quarterback in the college level, ... I wish we were playing a true freshman quarterback making his first start." https://t.co/FJdtFVSXqT
-9.2 percent: When factoring in game state (down, distance, field position, score, time), Duke runs the ball 9.2 percent less often than would generally be expected. In this context, the Blue Devils rank No. 20 in frequency of throwing the ball.
0.1: Expected points added to Notre Dame’s margin of victory per opponent dropback, No. 5 in the country. To put this in plain terms: When opponents throw against the Irish, it sets them measurably back on average. They succeed on only 31.1 percent of dropbacks.
🏈WEEK 5 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS🏈
— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 26, 2023
🍻Link in Bio
SATURDAY EVENING SLATE
NOTRE DAME @ DUKE pic.twitter.com/CmsQ4kOrn4
124: Career passing touchdowns for Irish quarterback Sam Hartman, No. 7 all-time and seven behind former Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield (2013-17) for sixth all-time.
14,203: Career passing yards for Hartman, No. 9 all-time and 283 yards behind former Washington State quarterback Luke Falk (2013-17) for No. 8 all-time.
29: Straight regular-season wins for Notre Dame against ACC opponents, dating back to the blowout loss at Miami in November of 2017.
1: Preseason predictions on the line today:
“Notre Dame will be uncomfortable at Duke on Sept. 30. The operating definition of ‘uncomfortable’ is that the Blue Devils will have the ball with an opportunity to tie or take the lead or even build a lead in the fourth quarter.”
Braylon James has yet to catch a pass this season.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 30, 2023
Could also see walk-on Jordan Faison in a role.
But most likely, a heavy load of TE Holden Staes alongside Mitchell Evans, perhaps even freshman Cooper Flanagan. (Only three available TEs, too.)
