Heading into Week 9, there are just two Football Bowl Subdivision teams that have not trailed for a single snap this season: Indiana and Army. Just like we all drew it up when we sketched out our preseason predictions back in August!
The Hoosiers are 7-0 and should be ranked in the top 10 of this week’s AP poll. I’d thought that their dominant performance against a very good Nebraska defense would have won over their skeptics, but it looks like it’s going to take a few more weeks of convincing for those voters who seem to be unable to move past the name on the front of the uniform. Indiana is a very good and very sound football team, and this program deserves all of the attention it’s getting in Curt Cignetti’s first season. Even with uncertainty surrounding Kurtis Rourke‘s finger injury — which will sideline him at least one week — it’s clear that this is a football team good enough to contend for a CFP at-large bid with a schedule that sets up quite nicely for them to do just that.
Indiana will likely be favored in all but one of its remaining games, and if this team finishes the season with one or two losses (with the second coming in the Big Ten championship game), it will absolutely have a shot at one of the seven at-large bids. I’m putting the Hoosiers in my bracket right now after a marquee win partly based on that and the eye test, but also because this is a bit of a projection forward.
As for Army, the Black Knights are certainly in the mix for the designated Group of 5 champion spot. They’re sitting atop the American Athletic Conference standings, and if they win the AAC title game (which could be vs. Navy!) they’d have a strong case to get the spot. Of course, Boise State or UNLV might have something to say about that ... which is why the Broncos are currently slotted into my bracket at the moment. I remain a fan of Ashton Jeanty and a Boise State team whose only blemish on its resume so far is a three-point loss to the current No. 1 team in the country.
Speaking of that top-ranked team, it’s officially time to move Oregon into the top spot in my weekly projection. I’m still not sure any team in college football this year is head and shoulders above the rest, but that’s what’s going to make this a particularly fun stretch run. And it’s certainly possible that we see upsets in conference championship games that throw wrenches in all of our plans heading into the first weekend of December anyway!
As a reminder, the top four seeds will go to the four highest-ranked conference champions. The fifth highest-ranked champion is guaranteed a spot in the bracket, while the other seven spots go to the selection committee’s highest-ranked at-large teams.
For now, I’ve got the Ducks in the top spot as the Big Ten champion, followed by Georgia (fresh off its incredible defensive performance over Texas, which gives it an important head-to-head result as we look toward SEC championship game qualification). Unbeaten Miami remains in the No. 3 spot after yet another chaotic game, and BYU checks in at No. 4 after a crazy come-from-behind win over Oklahoma State keeps the Cougs unbeaten and atop the Big 12 standings.
It’s quite difficult to sift through these at-large resumes, though we are learning more and more about each of these teams the later into the season we get. Like, I believe that LSU is one of the best teams in the SEC right now, especially with Garrett Nussmeier playing like arguably the best QB in the conference. I’ve got Tennessee on the outside looking in right now because the Vols’ QB is playing erratically, and I don’t think Tennessee deserves a ton of credit for being less bad than a not-good Alabama team in a game that stayed ugly until late. Iowa State snagged my last at-large spot after somehow (!) winning a game in which its quarterback threw two pick-sixes — we all know that second one should have counted as such in the record books ... kids, stop dropping the football before you cross the plane!) — which earned the Cyclones the first 4-0 start in conference play in program history. I still believe that the Big 12 can and will cannibalize itself, but for now it’s sitting pretty with two unbeaten teams in the bracket.
We should get some good insight into the teams ranked 5-8 this week, with Ohio State returning to action for the first time since its loss to Oregon at home against Nebraska, Texas resuming play after its disappointing loss to Georgia by traveling to face an upset-minded Vanderbilt, and Penn State taking on a Wisconsin team on a three-game winning streak at Camp Randall.
